Where in the World is "Admiral Panteleyev"?

Udaloy I destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" - undated

On February 4, a Russian Navy Pacific Fleet surface action group led by Udaloy I-class destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" departed Vladivostok for what was supposed to be a three-month deployment. That deployment has now stretched into its fifth month, and no one knows for sure when it will return to its home port.

The group, which also includes two auxiliary vessels (Dubna tanker "Pechenga" and Goryn rescue tug "SB-522"), was reported to be conducting training in the South China Sea a week later. The group was supposed to arrive in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, but that port call never happened due to changes in operational plans, according to an anonymous source.

Following a short port call in Sattahip, Thailand, in early March, a six-day port call in Langkawa, Malaysia, in mid-March, and a brief port call in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in late march, "Admiral Panteleyev" and its support vessels headed into the Indian Ocean. The official story ends when the ships departed Colombo on April 1.

The reason the Russian MOD has not released any new information on the group's whereabouts may be connected to the mission it is currently performing. On April 12, the MOD announced that Black Sea Fleet Vishnya intelligence collection ship SSV-201 "Priazovye" was involved in evacuating combat zone refuges from Yemen to Djibouti, even though the spy ship's participation began at least two weeks earlier. If the "Admiral Panteleyev" group were some how involved in an ongoing humanitary mission, one might expect the MOD to publicly tout the destroyer's efforts. But there has only been silence.

Social media, on the other hand, has provided a few clues. In early May, the destroyer was reportedly anchored near Africa, but not in a port. In early June, "Pechenga" made a port call in Salalah, Oman, to take on supplies before returning to the destroyer's location. It seems the destroyer hadn't moved from the same anchorage at which it arrived in May. While the exact whereabouts remain a mystery, according to one source, the ship is supposed to conduct a port call - somewhere - in the coming days. As for when it might return to Vladivostok, one source indicated mid-August as a likely time frame.

What is "Admiral Panteleyev" doing that is so secret?

Is Mediterranean Sea Dangerous for Russian Navy Destroyers?

The Russian Navy Northern Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov" is currently undergoing repairs in Sevastopol following a collision with an unknown tanker in the Mediterranean Sea last month, according to internet chatter. This follows two other incidents with Udaloy destroyers having to enter the Black Sea for repairs during their Mediterranean Sea deployments. In May-June 2013, the Northern Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Admiral Levchenko" underwent repairs, to include work on its bow-mounted sonar. And between June and September 2013, the Pacific Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" underwent some type of repairs in Novorossiysk. It is noteworthy that no other major combatant from the Mediterranean Task Force has had to enter the Black Sea for repairs.

Naval officials' claims that these were "routine" repairs are dishonest. Ships already complete lengthy shipyard periods before departing on lengthy deployments. Therefore, there should be nothing "routine" about theses destroyers having to break from the task group and head for Sevastopol or Novorossiysk.

The impact? The Black Sea Fleet's Slava-class cruiser "Moskva" now has to spend "more than two months" in the Mediterranean Sea, according to an unnamed Navy Main Staff source. According to one internet source, the cruiser will depart on 2 or 3 September for a deployment that will last "2-3 months at a minimum."

Russia's Secret Naval Exercise

Depictions of area closures [Courtesy: Google Earth; Data: GEBCO, NGA, NOAA, SIO, U.S. Navy]

Russian Navy public affairs officers must be on extended summer vacations, because they haven't been churning out press releases on a major exercise off the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russian Far East) set to commence as early as this Thursday. I mean, with all these recent reports of ghost submarines appearing off Russian coastlines, someone's got to be in the office -- those intelligence leaks didn't just happen by themselves. [More on the ghost submarines in a later blog entry.]

Two area closures have been announced for August 28 through September 5:

• HYDROPAC 2470/14 (larger area closure)
  
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  MISSILES.
  1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2000Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 28, 29 AUG, 04 AND 05 SEP
  IN AREA BOUND BY
  50-06-18N 161-38-54E, 50-34-48N 160-14-30E,
  51-23-54N 159-44-24E, 52-16-24N 158-31-30E,
  53-05-48N 160-01-48E, 51-28-54N 163-34-00E,
  51-08-18N 163-18-30E, 50-16-12N 162-11-00E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 060900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 77/14 230915Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 06090000 Sep 14

• HYDROPAC 2482/14 (smaller area closure)
  
  WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  GUNNERY.
  1. GUNNERY EXERCISES 1900Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 30 AUG THRU 03 SEP IN AREA BETWEEN
  52-30N 52-41N AND 159-44E 160-07E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 040900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 79/14 250916Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 04090000 Sep 14

So, what's happening here? According to internet chatter, the following surface combatants recently transited (or soon might) from the Pacific Fleet's main naval base in Vladivostok to ports on the Kamchatka Peninsula (arriving on August 25):

• Slava-class cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy-class destroyer "Bystryy" (may have engine problems)
• Udaloy I-class destroyers "Admiral Panteleyev", "Admiral Vinogradov", and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" (the latter will join up in September)
• Grisha III-class light frigate "Kholmsk"
• Grisha V-class light frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"

The large area closure is well suited for the SS-N-12/Sandbox and SS-N-22/Sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles fired by the Slava and Sovremennyy, respectively.

Is this the start of this year's premier military exercise - Vostok-2014? Previous mentions of Vostok-2014 only indicated that the exercise would occur in September, and most recently, in mid-September. And one netizen wrote, "[Vostok-2014] will last the entire month of September." Military public affairs officers oddly have not provided more definitive dates. If this week's events aren't part of Vostok-2014, then they certainly are meant to prepare ships' crews for it.

Also, according to internet chatter, many of these combatant ships will be away from Vladivostok for up to one month, leaving them plenty of time to conduct additional combat drills. This tidbit of information could confirm the "visible" (to the media) part of Vostok-2014 exercise will occur mid- or late September. We'll need to track President Putin's and Minister of Defense Shoygu's travel schedules over the next few weeks.

As for non-naval participation in Vostok-2014, internet chatter indicates elements of the 38th Separate Motorized-Rifle Brigade have deployed (or soon will) to the Kamchatka Peninsula. About a dozen or so Su-27SM and Su-35 fighters (from Dzemgi and/or Uglovaya) have been deployed there since at least mid-August.

Furthermore, according to internet chatter and somewhat confirmed by this company-press-release-turned-news-article, "Varyag" will continue on an extended deployment to the Indian Ocean following the Vostok-2014 exercise. The deployment has been described by one source as lasting up to six months -- unsure if that six-month counter started when "Varyag" left Vladivostok, or if it will start after Vostok-2014 is over. In either case, a sailor on board the cruiser reported recently that he is going on a deployment that will last until February 2015 during which "Varyag" will make port calls in Indonesia, Singapore, (South?) Korea, and two other unnamed ports.

UPDATE: Is Russia's Surface Fleet Being Stretched to the Limit?

In a brief update to my previous blog entry:

• Admiral Panteleyev finally returned to the Mediterranean Sea last week following possible repairs of unknown equipment that broke down some time in July.
  
• Russia had to use a Tarantul III-class patrol combatant to escort another "Syrian Express" landing ship to the Mediterranean Sea and back in mid-August.
  
• Rumors abound that Udaloy I-class destroyer Vitse-Admiral Kulakov suffered some type of propulsion problem in early-August shortly after its Havana, Cuba, port call. The ship failed to meet its previously scheduled port calls despite Moscow's insistence that the destroyer has been tagging along with Slava-class cruiser Moskva the entire time. Instead of bringing the ship home early, naval officials apparently decided it was better to keep the destroyer out of sight and tow it back to the Barents Sea on/about its scheduled return date. Given that no immediate tow service was required, it's possible the destroyer is as least partially operational, which means it has enough power to limp into port while TV cameras are rolling. As soon as the sailors hit the shore, we'll learn more... According to some internet chatter, Sorum-class oceangoing tug MB-304 may be towing the destroyer northeast in the Atlantic Ocean, and both units may rendezvous with Baklazhan-class salvage and rescue tug Nikolay Chiker, which has been hanging around the United Kingdom for several weeks -- most recently southeast of Cork, Ireland.