Which Subs Will Be Upgraded to Carry Kalibr?

In 2014, Admiral Viktor Chirkov, head of the Russian Navy, stated:

"By 2020, 12 multipurpose nuclear-powered submarines are scheduled to undergo deep modernization: Project 949AM – four units, Project 971M – six units, Project 945M – two units. Characteristics of these submarines will not be inferior to foreign equivalents, but rather, in terms of certain criteria, such as strike missile weapon loads, they will be superior to their foreign equivalents."

In this context, "deep modernization" most certainly refers to reconfiguring the submarines to carry the Kalibr family of missiles (SS-N-27 antiship cruise missile, SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile, and 91R antisubmarine missile) and, in most (if not all) cases, upgrading to the MGK-540M (Kizhuch) sonar system. Based on multiple statements and a review of repair contracts and annual stockholder reports, the following is a list of known candidates that fit Chirkov's "deep modernization" projections:

Class	Name	Age
Akula I	"Bratsk"	27
Akula I	"Leopard"	22
Akula I	"Samara"	19
Akula I	"Volk"	23
Oscar II	"Chelyabinsk"	24
Oscar II	"Irkutsk"	26
Oscar II	"Tver"	22
Sierra I	"Karp"	27
Sierra I	"Kostroma"	24

There certainly are other upgrade candidates, including announced upgrades for specific units, but none of them appear to be in place for an upgrade shipyard period before 2020. Also note that Chirkov's projections do not specify upgrades to old Kilo diesel submarines or Victor III nuclear-powered submarines. Contracts for the ongoing repairs of Sierra II "Pskov" and Victor III "Tambov" provide no indications of Kalibr or major sonar system upgrades. Victor III "Obninsk" completed a repair period in 2014, which was classified by shipyard officials as a "restoration of technical readiness" and not "deep modernization." Thus, the recent launch of a probable land-attack cruise missile by "Obninsk" indicates that submarine is simply being used as a test platform.

The question still remains: can all this really be achieved by 2020? Given Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center's experience and record, it is certainly possible that the six units the shipyard was contracted to upgrade will be finished by 2020. The same cannot be said for Zvezda Far East Shipyard, which has a record of continually delayed repair schedules and a (criminal) history of not actually performing the repairs it was contracted and paid to perform. The MOD currently has at least five cases against Zvezda Far East Shipyard at various levels in the Russian arbitration court system and is seeking to receive over RUB 111.5 million in payments and fines. Factors that will impact both shipyards are continuing Western sanctions, the loss of access to Ukrainian firms that produced parts and components used in Russian submarines, and the ruble crisis.

In 2020 and beyond, the field of candidates for Kalibr/Kizhuch upgrades could include the following:

Class	Name	Age (in 2020)
Akula I	"Kuzbass"	28
Akula I	"Magadan"	31
Akula I	"Nerpa" ("INS Chakra")	9
Akula I	"Pantera"	30
Akula I	"Tigr"	27
Akula II	"Gepard"	19
Akula II	"Vepr"	25
Oscar II	"Omsk"	27
Oscar II	"Orel"	28
Oscar II	"Smolensk"	30
Oscar II	"Tomsk"	24
Oscar II	"Voronezh"	31
Sierra II	"Nizhniy Novgorod"	30
Sierra II	"Pskov"	27

Russian Pacific Fleet Submarine Force: It Could Be Worse

Oscar II submarine "Omsk" returns to Rybachiy Submarine Base
(credit: RF Ministry of Defense)

The Western Military District issued a gushing press release today in which it reported that the Russian Navy Northern Fleet (no longer part of the Western Military District as of December 1, 2014) had won 13 of the 24 Russian Navy CINC trophies awarded this year. Singled out in the press release were three submarine commanding officers: Captain 1st Rank Dmitriy Ivanov (Sierra II-class nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine "Nizhniy Novgorod"), Captain 2nd Rank Denis Semyanskikh (Delta IV-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Yekaterinburg" - his crew was on "Tula" for the May 2014 launch of a single SS-N-23/Skiff ballistic missile), and Captain 2nd Rank Sergey Pirozhenko (Kilo-class diesel submarine "Kaluga").

One might think that the Pacific Fleet, which hosted this year's operational-strategic exercise VOSTOK, would have surpassed all other fleets or at least tied for first place. When your fleet's in poor shape, however, it's hard to win many.

Looking at just the Pacific Fleet's operational nuclear submarine force, there are only two Delta III-class ballistic missile submarines and two Oscar II-class cruise missile submarines capable of performing their wartime missions. The fleet has no operational Akula I-class fast-attack submarines. So, where are the rest?

• Delta III: Both "Podolsk" and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets" turned 35 years old this year. These two have served well past their design service lives because Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh" failed to transfer - in 2014, 2013, 2012, etc. - to the Pacific Fleet despite the many proclamations by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, his predecessor, and all of their subordinates. Will Delta III "Ryazan" ever return from long-term maintenance? After transferring from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet in 2008, "Ryazan" only served three years before heading to Zvezda Far East Shipyard (Bolshoy Kamen) in 2011 for repairs. The submarine has been there so long the MOD had to sign a second contract in 2013 to cover the repairs that should have been completed under the first contract.

• Oscar II: "Omsk" and "Tver" are the fleet's only two operational General Purpose Force nuclear-powered submarines, and both of them won trophies this year. "Omsk" just returned from somewhere in the past few days as suggested by a MOD tweet today. "Krasnoyarsk" is being scrapped. "Irkutsk" is at Zvezda Far East Shipyard undergoing upgrades to carry the Kalibr-family of missiles. It won't return to service until at least December 2017. "Chelyabinsk" was just delivered to Zvezda Far East Shipyard this year, and no major components have been ordered for its Kalibr upgrade. Finally, "Tomsk" transferred to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in 2008 for a simple service life extension repair period, but it has yet to return to operational service.

• Akula I: "Akula" and "Barnaul" have been scrapped. "Kashalot" has been stuck at Amur Shipyard since 2003; its fate is unknown. "Bratsk" and "Samara" were ferried on board the Dutch-flagged heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" this summer from Rybachiy to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (Severodvinsk) for Kalibr upgrades. "Kuzbass" and "Magadan" have been at Zvezda Far East Shipyard since at least 2009 and 2012, respectively; their fates also remain unclear.

In other words, of the 13 nuclear-powered submarines still on the Pacific Fleet's books, only ~31% are operational.

You can't win a soccer match if you don't have enough players on the field.

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Akula I SSN "Bratsk" (left) and "Samara" (right) loaded on "Transshelf" - August 2014
(image courtesy of vkontakte.ru)

Nuclear-powered icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" escorting "Transshelf" - September 16, 2014
(image courtesy of RosAtomFlot)

Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", with Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines "Bratsk" and "Samara" loaded on board, arrived in the vicinity of Severodvinsk on September 23. According to a spokesperson for Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center, which has been contracted to conduct repairs and upgrades of the two submarines, "Transshelf" will remain near the Nikolskoye entrance buoy until weather improves.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 11, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats (September 16, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats (September 19, 2014)

Dolgorukiy SSBN: The Dirty Secret Under the Hood

Dolgorukiy SSBN "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" underway in the White Sea - September 7, 2009
(Image courtesy of images.yandex.ru)

The Russian Navy’s newest class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines is not as new as Moscow's submarine dealers would like you to know.

All of the Dolgorukiy-class (Project 955) SSBNs launched to date are actually hybrids of Akula SSNs and Oscar II SSGNs. I’m not sure why this isn’t more clearly explained in the English-language Wikipedia article, but it’s abundantly clear in the Russian-language version of the article.

If it were only the Frankenstein hull, then all debate could center on the third generation hull structure’s impact on the submarine’s theoretical tactical performance and detectability. But the hull is not the only borrowed item on this submarine.

It turns out that in addition to hull sections, the Dolgorukiy SSBN is borrowing used steam turbines from scrapped nuclear-powered submarines that were built nearly 30 years ago. This month, the Northeastern Repair Center in Vilyuchinsk (Kamchatka Peninsula) announced it was signing a contract (worth RUB 1,198,951) with the Far East subsidiary of Onega Scientific Research Technological Design Bureau (in Bolshoy Kamen, east of Vladivostok) for the “creation of technological and design documentation to support the removal of modular steam turbine plant equipment” plus “assistance during the deinstallation and removal of an Azurit-M modular steam turbine plant [from Oscar II SSGN “Krasnoyarsk”]" in the 4th quarter of 2014. The umbrella contract under which this work is to be done is Z/1/1/0169/GK-12-DGOZ, signed on May 25, 2012, which actually covers the construction of hulls 5-8 of the Dolgorukiy SSBN class. Thus, the steam turbine plant on “Krasnoyarsk” will be used in the construction of a future, new and improved Project 955A version of the Dolgorukiy SSBN (the 955A series started with the fourth hull, "Knyaz Vladimir"). And there is a strong suspicion that this has happened with some, if not all, of the earlier units, as well.

How much would you pay for a “new” car that used a frame constructed from 30-year-old cars and that was powered by a used engine?

Show me the Car Sub Fax!!!

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Locations of "Transshelf" and "Vaygach" - September 15-19, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", with Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines "Bratsk" and "Samara" loaded on board, continues its transit of the Arctic Northern Sea Route. "Transshelf" transited through the Sannikov Strait on September 16, the Laptev Sea on September 17, and through the Vilkitskiy Strait and into the Kara Sea by September 18. Both vessels were traveling at nearly 14 knots at that point.

By 0800 GMT today, the two vessels had separated. "Vaygach" was dead in the water within Zaliv Volchiy, while "Transshelf" continued a 13.6-knot southwesterly transit of the Kara Sea. If it continues an average 13-knot speed of advance, "Transshelf" could arrive in Severodvinsk on September 22; however, it earlier had an estimated arrival date of September 23.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 11, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats (September 16, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Locations of "50 Let Pobedy" and "Transshelf" - September 12-15, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Over the past weekend, the nuclear-powered icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy", which had earlier concluded icebreaker support for a Russian Navy Northern Fleet task group heading to the New Siberian Islands, rendezvoused with the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf" (with two Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines loaded on board). The units began a westerly transit of the East Siberian Sea and were located approximately 115nm east of Bolshoy Lyakhovskiy Island (just south of Kotelnyy Island) at 0800 GMT on September 15.

"Transshelf" is now scheduled to depart the Northern Sea Route (NSR) on September 20, five days after the original end date of its approved transit window. On September 11, understanding the vessel would exceed the September 15 deadline, Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center requested an extension of the NSR transit window. The NSR Administration approved the request the following day and granted "Transshelf" permission to operate along the NSR through September 30.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 11, 2014)

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers

Oscar II SSGN "Chelyabinsk" on "Transshelf" near Bolshoy Kamen, September 9, 2014 (Photo credit: VitTE)

Quick updates of the submarine transfers:

• Today, four days after arriving near Bolshoy Kamen, the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" finally offloaded Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine "Chelyabinsk", according to a local resident. Here's a short video of "HYSY 278" anchored in Ussuriyskiy Bay near Bolshoy Kamen before the submarine was offloaded.
• The Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel remains anchored in the exact same position as it was yesterday. The icebreaker "Krasin" did arrive in Pevek by 0800 GMT yesterday. When the icebreaker will depart port remains a mystery.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Locations of "Krasin" and "Transshelf" - September 9, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

For at least two days, the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", with two Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines loaded on board, has been awaiting the arrival of an unknown icebreaker while anchored about 115nm west of Icy Point, Alaska. The closest Russian icebreaker is "Krasin"; however, it was nearly 410nm east of "Transshelf" heading to Pevek yesterday. Perhaps after a short port call, "Krasin" will rendezvous with "Transshelf" and escort it through the icepack. At an average speed of 8kts, it will take two and a half days for "Krasin" to travel from Pevek to "Transshelf" at its current position. "Transshelf" is now expected to exit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) no earlier than September 18 -- three days after the approved NSR transit window.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers

Locations of "Hai Yang Shi You 278" and "Transshelf" on September 4, 2014 [Map courtesy of Google Maps]

The Dockwise semi-submersible vessels "Hai Yang Shi You 278" and "Transshelf" continue to ferry their submarine cargo to their respective destinations:

• "Hai Yang Shi You 278", with Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Chelyabinsk" on board, has entered the Sea of Okhotsk and was located about 150nm north of Iturup Island at 1100 GMT on September 4. The vessel's estimated time of arrival at Zvezda Far East Ship in Bolshoy Kamen is 1100 GMT on September 7.
• "Transshelf", with Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines "Bratsk" and "Samara" on board, has transited the Bering Strait and was located about 25nm northwest of Diomid Island at 0800 GMT on September 4.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Locations of "Hai Yang Shi You 278" (pink) and "Transshelf" (green) on August 30

The Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf" departed Avachinskaya Guba (Russia) today after having onloaded two Russian Navy Pacific Fleet Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines last week. At 1200 GMT today, it was located about 8nm southeast of Mys Mayachnyy. "Transshelf" is now expected to transit the Arctic Northern Sea Route and arrive in the White Sea in approximately two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278", with an Oscar II-class nuclear-powered missile submarine on board, remains anchored in Avachinskaya Guba.

For previous reporting, see my August 14 and August 28 blog entries.

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels

Akula I SSN "Samara" (left) and "Bratsk" (right) loaded on TRANSSHELF [photo: Express-Kamchatka]

                                                     [click here for August 30 update]

As a quick update to my previous post, Both Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarine "Bratsk" and "Samara" were loaded on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", and Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Chelyabinsk" on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" over the past few days. The loading operations took place in Avachinskaya Guba near 5258N 15832E. Both vessels are expected to begin their respective transits in the next 48 hours.

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now?

"Transshelf" ferries two Victor III SSN, July 2009 [photo: HeavyLift RU]

                                                               [click here for August 28 update]
                                                               [click here for August 30 update]

As the world continues to wait for officials to finish their investigation of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 tragedy in which 193 Dutch citizens perished, the Dutch company Dockwise Shipping BV is quietly preparing to assist the Russian Navy ferry three nuclear-powered attack submarines to Russian shipyards. With the possibility of Russian complicity in the MH17 tragedy, why would the Netherlands allow these operations to continue?

The semi-submersible heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" departed Singapore on July 24, briefly stopped in China in early August, then continued towards Rybachiy Submarine Base on the Kamchatka Peninsula, where it arrived on August 12 (local time). Locals mistook it for "Blue Marlin", another Dockwise ship. As of August 15, "Transshelf" was anchored in Avachinskaya Bukhta near 5258N 15833E. The ship is scheduled to ferry two Akula I-class SSN ("Bratsk" and "Samara") – via the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) -- to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center in Severodvinsk (White Sea). The approved window for the NSR transit is August 25-September 15, 2014.

The second ship, "Hai Yang Shi You 278", departed Dalian, China, on August 10 and is scheduled to arrive at Rybachiy Submarine Base on August 18. It will be used to ferry an Oscar II-class SSGN ("Chelyabinsk") to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen (near Vladivostok).

I hope the grieving families of those who perished on MH17 are okay with this...

Update 1: Here is a news item (+ video) from July 2009 when "Transshelf" conducted the world's first ferry mission of two nuclear-powered attack submarines (Russian Victor III SSN).

Update 2: A review of the NSR Administration website indicates Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (on behalf of Dockwise Shipping BV) submitted a request on April 14 for "Transshelf" to transit the NSR; the NSR Administration approved the request two days later.

Update 3: Updated arrival date for "Transshelf" in the Rybachiy area (August 12).

Update 4: Updated latest position for "Transshelf" as of August 15.