Impending Bulava Missile Launch

Area closure, flight bans, and flight corridor restriction for Bulava missile launch -- September 11-15, 2015

On September 9, RIA Novosti and TASS, citing their separate anonymous sources, reported that Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered submarines would launch Bulava (SS-N-32) ballistic missiles in the October-November time frame. According to RIA Novosti, "Vladimir Monomakh" would launch first, followed by a dual launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh". TASS's source stated that "Vladimir Monomakh" will perform a salvo launch in November, and that no other Bulava launches will occur this year.

It is odd that neither of them mentioned this week's scheduled ballistic missile launch.

Area closures, flight bans, and flight corridor restrictions have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 11 and 15 September. The missile will be launched from the White Sea and impact at the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

HYDROARC 265/15

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 111300Z TO 112000Z, 131000Z TO 132100Z, 141000Z TO 141900Z SEP AND 1000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 12 AND 15 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY 73-05N 051-00E, 72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E, 72-00N 047-20E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 160001Z SEP 15.

G3278/15 - ATS RTE A222 SEGMENT KUMEL-LAGAT CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3279/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
720000N 0472000E-730500N 0510000E-724700N 0514000E-714500N 0504000E-712400N 0492500E.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3282/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
651300N0362700E-653800N0362700E-661200N0371700E-655200N0383500E-651300N0373900E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, 11-15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3283/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
724700N0514000E-723000N0524700E-714500N0504000E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, DAILY 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

P5645/15 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK)-OKLED CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 54/15 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ЗАПРЕТНОМ ПЛАВАНИЯ РАЙОНЕ 65-13.0С 036-27.0В 65-38.0С 036-27.0В 66-12.0С 037-17.0В 65-52.0С 038-35.0В 65-13.0С 037-39.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

НАВАРЕА 200 139/15 КАРТА 11163
ЗАПАДНЕЕ ОСТРОВОВ НОВАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ПЛАВАНИЕ ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ТЕРВОДАХ ОПАСНО ИХ ПРЕДЕЛАМИ РАЙОНЕ 73-05.0С 051-00.0В 72-30.0С 052-47.0В 71-24.0С 049-25.0В 72-00.0С 047-20.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

Reporting from last week indicated "Vladimir Monomakh" had arrived in Severodvinsk in advance of a scheduled Bulava launch. As there is no other submarine known to be currently available in the White Sea to launch a ballistic missile, the most likely scenario is that "Vladimir Monomakh" will launch at least one Bulava. "Vladimir Monomakh" last launched a Bulava in September 2014.

Is it just a coincidence that this missile launch will occur on the eve of the opening of the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin?

All Aboard the Bulava Production Retooling Train!

Between 2013 and 2015, at least a dozen Russian enterprises have announced retooling plans connected with the production and assembly of 3K-30 Bulava [SS-N-32] missile components. The names of known companies and retooling costs are listed below:

Name of Enterprise	Retooling Costs
Central Scientific Research Institute of Automatics and Hydraulics	RUB 14,000,000
Elektron Central Scientific Research Institute	RUB 4,918,000
Geofizika-Kosmos Scientific Production Enterprise	not specified
Iskra Factory	RUB 3,850,000
Lebedev Scientific Research Institute of Synthetic Rubber	RUB 52,680,500
Moscow Institute of Thermal Technologies	RUB 76,897,249
Pulsar State Factory	RUB 6,870,000
Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry	RUB 3,100,000
Scientific Research Institute of Physical Measurements	RUB 197,980
Scientific Research Institute of Semiconductor Devices	RUB 3,646,180
Soyuz Federal Center for Dual-Purpose Technologies	RUB 199,871
Votkinsk Factory	RUB 3,943,971
Zvezda Factory	RUB 30,628,260

The above costs (totaling RUB 200,932,011) cover everything from design documentation for retooling of fabrication facilities to the delivery of  specific machinery required in the production of missile parts.

RF MOD: Semi-Trusting the Facts

Screen capture of RF MOD press release - January 3, 2015

In today's press release, the MOD reported that in 2014 "crews of Russian Navy nuclear-powered submarine missile cruisers conducted four successful launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Barents and White Seas towards the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula." The press release claims the launch dates and launch platforms were:

Sep 10 -- Dolgorukiy "Vladimir Monomakh"
Oct 29 -- Dolgorukiy "Yuriy Dolgorukiy"
Nov 5 -- Delta IV "Tula"
Dec 1 -- Dolgorukiy "Aleksandr Nevskiy"

The dates, based on the MOD's earlier press releases and statements, were correct except:

Dec 1 Nov 28 -- Dolgorukiy "Aleksandr Nevskiy" [Source 1, 2, 3, 4]

Why did the press service not even mention the May 8 launches of an SS-N-18 by Delta III "Podolsk" (from the Sea of Okhotsk) and an SS-N-23 by Delta IV "Tula" (from the Barents Sea) [Source 5, 6, 7, 8]?

The absence of the May launches may have been due to a failure to include a specific time frame in the message, as in "during the last quarter of the training year." But the press office still provided the wrong launch date for the Bulava launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy".

When you consider how deputy defense minister Yuriy Borisov and the MOD statisticians came up with different numbers of new-construction units delivered this year, you have to wonder who's really in charge of fact-checking the MOD's figures.

Analysis of MOD's New-Construction Numbers for RF Navy in 2014

Dolgorukiy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine
[credit: Rubin Central Design Bureau of Naval Technology]

At this week's expanded MOD collegium meeting, deputy defense minister Yuriy Borisov stated that "6 combat ships and cutters, 1 submarine... 21 auxiliary ships and vessels" were delivered to the Russian military. Those numbers appear to be somewhat correct; however, the official report published by the MOD on its website states that 2 submarines and "5 surface ships and 10 combat cutters of various classes" were delivered to the military in 2014.

Here is what I see (as of December 19) for new-construction ships, vessels, and submarines:

"6 combatant ships and cutters" (Borisov) | "5 surface ships and 10 combat cutters of various classes" (MOD report)

• [x2] Dyugon amphibious landing craft ["Denis Davydov", "Ivan Kartsov"]
• [x1] Serna amphibious landing craft ["D-199"]
• [x1] Steregushchiy I frigate ["Stoykiy"]
• [x2] Sviyazhsk patrol combatants ["Uglich", "Velikiy Ustyug"]

"one submarine" (Borisov) | "two submarines" (MOD report)

• [x1] Dolgorukiy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine ["Vladimir Monomakh"]
• [x1] Kilo diesel submarine ["Novorossiysk"]
• There is still hope that Kilo diesel submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" could be delivered by the end of December

"21 auxiliary ships and vessels" (Borisov)

• [x1] Baklan hydrographic survey vessel ["BGK-2152"]
• [x3] Grachonok harbor protection craft ["P-355", "P-377", "P-417"]
• [x2] PE-65 sea-going tug ["MB-134", "MB-135"]
• [x1] Mod-Shelon VIP personnel launch ["KSV-2155"]
• [x2] Stridsbat 90 combat personnel launches
• [x3] SKPO-1000 harbor tanker ["Pecha", "Umba", "VTN-73"]
• [x3] Project 16609 harbor tug ["Belukha", "RB-406", "RB-407"]
• [x1] Project 22870 salvage and rescue tug ["SB-45"]
• [x3] Project 23370 multi-function harbor craft ["SMK-2093", "SMK-2094", "SMK-2100"]
• [x2] Project 90600 harbor tugs ["RB-412", "RB-413"]

Not included in either report were the following less-sexy items:

• [x2] Project 02690 floating cranes ["SPK-19150", "SPK-42150"]
• [x6] Project 23040 harbor diver support vessel ["RVK-933", "RVK-946", "RVK-1045", "RVK-1064", "RVK-1102", one other]
• [x6] Project 436BIS target vessels
• [x11] Project 455 target vessels

Borisov then stated that "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" each launched a single "Bulava" (SS-N-32) missile this year as part of their combat certifications. True, but there was a third launch by "Vladmir Monomakh" that was conducted as part of state trials - would it have hurt to mention that launch?

“Aleksandr Nevskiy” to Launch Bulava SLBM This Week

Flight bans (red) and flight route restrictions (green) - November 28-29, 2014

Several flight bans and flight restrictions have been announced for Barents Sea missile activity scheduled for November 28-29, 2014:

Flight bans
G2530/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
  1. 693800N 0341000E-694700N 0341000E-702200N 0350000E-700400N 0362600E-692700N 0353500E-692700N 0351800E-693800N 0341000E-693800N 0341000E.
  2. 770300N 0530200E-755800N 0563300E-750500N 0521300E-760400N 0485300E-770300N 0530200E-770300N 0530200E.
SFC - UNL, DAILY 0900-2030, 28 NOV 09:00 2014 UNTIL 29 NOV 20:30 2014.

G2540/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
693800N 0341000E-692700N 0351800E-692700N 0341000E-693800N 0341000E.
SFC - 1500M AMSL, DAILY 0900-2030, 28 NOV 09:00 2014 UNTIL 29 NOV 20:30 2014.

Flight route closure
G2525/14 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B483 PIBOL - ANODI, B488 TILGA - ANODI. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0900-2030, 28 NOV 09:00 2014 UNTIL 29 NOV 20:30 2014.

Additionally, a flight route closure over the Kamchatka Peninsula near the Kura Test Range also goes into effect on the same dates:

P8284/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENT CLSD: B240 TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0900-2030, 28 NOV 09:00 2014 UNTIL 29 NOV 20:30 2014.

"Aleksandr Nevskiy" arrived in Severodvinsk on November 7 to onload at least one SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM. The submarine departed Severodvinsk on November 15 for a two-day return transit to Sayda Guba. A week later, it transferred to the Severomorsk area.

Despite some confusion created by Interfax on November 10, military officials confirmed the next day that "Aleksandr Nevskiy", indeed, would launch a Bulava SLBM sometime during the last 10 days of November.

“Yuriy Dolgorukiy” to Launch Bulava SLBM This Week

Area closures (red), flight bans (yellow), and flight restrictions (green) for missile activity - October 29-31, 2014
(Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Two area closures and several flight bans and flight restrictions have been announced for Barents Sea missile activity scheduled for October 29-31, 2014:

Area closure
HYDROARC 319/14

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0600Z TO 2100Z DAILY 29 THRU 31 OCT IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 70-22.0N 035-00.0E, 70-03.0N 036-25.5E, 69-27.0N 035-35.0E, 69-27.0N 034-10.0E,
69-47.0N 034-06.0E.
B. 77-03.0N 053-02.0E, 75-58.0N 056-33.0E, 75-05.0N 052-13.0E, 76-04.0N 048-53.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 312200Z OCT 14.

Flight bans
G2124/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
 1. 6938N 03410E-6947N 03410E-7022N 03500E-7004N 03626E-6927N 03535E-
6927N 03518E.
 2. 7703N 05302E-7558N 05633E-7505N 05213E-7604N 04853E-7703N 05302E.
SFC - UNL, DAILY 0600-2100, 29 OCT 06:00 2014 UNTIL 31 OCT 21:00 2014.

G2136/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
693800N 0341000E-692700N 0351800E-692700N 0341000E-693800N 0341000E.
SFC - 1500M AMSL, DAILY 0600-2100, 29 OCT 06:00 2014 UNTIL 31 OCT 21:00 2014.

Flight restrictions
G2123/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
B483 TIMUN-ANODI,
B488 TUMOM-ANODI. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0600-2100, 29 OCT 06:00 2014 UNTIL 31 OCT 21:00 2014.

Additionally, a flight restriction over the Kamchatka Peninsula near the Kura Test Range also goes into effect on the same dates:

P7610/14 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK)-OKLED CLSD. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0600-2100, 29 OCT 06:00 2014 UNTIL 31 OCT 21:00 2014.

Flight restriction (green) located just west of the Kura Test Range (red) - October 29-31, 2014
(May courtesy of Google Earth)

Russia's TASS news agency, citing an unnamed General Staff source, reported on October 20 that Russian Navy Northern Fleet Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" would launch a single SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM on October 29-30. And on October 22, flot.com reported that "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" had arrived in Severodvinsk to onload one or more SLBMs. Why the submarine had to transit all the way from Gadzhiyevo to Severodvinsk to onload the missile(s) is a mystery.

This launch will be the first SS-N-32 launch outside of the White Sea and the first SS-N-32 launch by a commissioned Dolgorukiy SSBN. The last SS-N-32 was launched by "Vladimir Monomakh" in September as part of its pre-commissioning state acceptance testing.

“Vladimir Monomakh” to Launch Bulava SLBM This Week

SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM flight ban in White Sea and area closure near Novaya Zemlya -- September 10-14, 2014
(Map courtesy of Google Maps)

An area closure and several flight bans have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 10 and 14 September.

Area closure
HYDROARC 200/14

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0100Z TO 1700Z DAILY
10 THRU 14 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
72-00N 047-20E, 73-05N 051-00E,
72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 141800Z SEP 14.

Flight bans
G1331/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
A222 KUMEL - SOTIS,
A333 RILOM - DIRUG,
G375 KUGON - DIRUG. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:05 2014

G1332/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
7200N 04720E-7305N 05100E-7230N 05247E-
7124N 04925E-7200N 04720E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:18 2014

G1338/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
660600N 0385500E-651000N 0373000E-651200N 0364900E-
651200N 0364700E-651200N 0363700E-653700N 0362600E-
661200N 0371900E-660400N 0374700E-660300N 0383800E-
660600N 0385500E. SFC - FL050, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 15:43 2014

P6142/14 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED CLSD. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:05 2014

The area closure, which is adjacent to Novaya Zemlya, uses the same exact coordinates of an area closure declared for an SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM launch by Dolgorukiy-class SSBN “Aleksandr Nevskiy” on September 6, 2013. That missile failed in flight due to production quality control issues, but the launch itself was a success for the submarine and led to the completion of state testing and acceptance of the submarine in December 2013. As happened with last year’s launch, if the launch team aboard “Vladimir Monomakh” can successfully push the launch data to the missile and eject the missile out of its missile tube, the launch will be considered a success for the submarine. If the missile actually reaches the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, even better…

This week’s SS-N-32 Bulava launch by “Vladimir Monomakh” is part of the submarine’s state testing, which began back in July 2014. A month earlier, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yuriy Borisov announced that the submarine would launch a Bulava SLBM in September. The submarine most recently completed a two-week at-sea period as part of state testing that focused on assessing the submarine’s acoustic parameters. If all goes well, “Vladimir Monomkah” could be turned over in December (December 10?).

Break Out the Champagne!

After much trial and tribulation, Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Yuriy Dolgorukiy conducted a salvo launch of the SS-NX-32 Bulava SLBM on December 23.  Despite previous media coverage of the submarine's return to port, this time there have been no images or video released of the submarine tying up to the pier or of the crew receiving the traditional roasted pig for a successful mission.  Despite there being no image of a sickly-looking piglet, Russia's Channel 1 (Первый Канал) released footage this evening that it claims to be of the salvo launch.  Between 0:10 and 0:19, you can see two distinct contrails, along with a wonderful light show in the clouds.  Between 0:20 and 0:22, you can see two small, moving specks that would represent the two missiles in flight.  It will take some time (a month or more - especially given the upcoming nine-day holiday period that starts on January 1) until the results of the flight test are finalized and approved.  Only then will the Russian Ministry of Defense forward its recommendation to the Russian government to either accept the Bulava into the Russian Navy inventory or to continue testing.  On December 27, however, President Medvedev told senior military officers gathered in the Kremlin that the flight testing portion of the overall Bulava test program had concluded and that the missile would now enter into service... pending a favorable MOD recommendation, of course.