Impending Ballistic Missile Launch From Sea of Okhotsk

Flights bans for probable SS-N-18 ballistic missile launch -- October 12-17, 2015

Flight bans have been declared for three areas in the Sea of Okhotsk for the period of October 12 through October 17:

P6193/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI:
 1. 475400N 1510600E-480600N 1514000E-475200N 1515800E-473600N 1512100E-475400N 1510600E.
 2. CIRCLE RADIUS 50KM CENTRE 5249N 14617E.
 3. CIRCLE RADIUS 51KM CENTRE 5709N 14033E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0600-1300, 12 OCT 06:00 2015 UNTIL 17 OCT 13:00 2015. CREATED: 08 OCT 08:24 2015

The number and arrangement of the three areas are identical to those used for an SS-N-18 Stingray submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) event on May 8, 2014 [NOTAM P2906/14 (May 8-11, 2014)], during which Delta III-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Podolsk" launched a single SLBM from a submerged location in the Sea of Okhotsk.

"Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets"
(credit: TASS)

The Russian Pacific Fleet currently has two operational Delta III submarines - 36-year-old "Podolsk" and 35-year-old "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets". A third unit, 33-year-old "Ryazan", has been undergoing service life extension work at Zvezda Far East Shipyard since 2011. With the arrival of Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Aleksandr Nevskiy" in Rybachiy on September 30, Moscow can begin thinking about retiring the veteran "Podolsk" and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets". As such, next week's SLBM event may mark the final launch for one of them.

RF MOD: Semi-Trusting the Facts

Screen capture of RF MOD press release - January 3, 2015

In today's press release, the MOD reported that in 2014 "crews of Russian Navy nuclear-powered submarine missile cruisers conducted four successful launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Barents and White Seas towards the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula." The press release claims the launch dates and launch platforms were:

Sep 10 -- Dolgorukiy "Vladimir Monomakh"
Oct 29 -- Dolgorukiy "Yuriy Dolgorukiy"
Nov 5 -- Delta IV "Tula"
Dec 1 -- Dolgorukiy "Aleksandr Nevskiy"

The dates, based on the MOD's earlier press releases and statements, were correct except:

Dec 1 Nov 28 -- Dolgorukiy "Aleksandr Nevskiy" [Source 1, 2, 3, 4]

Why did the press service not even mention the May 8 launches of an SS-N-18 by Delta III "Podolsk" (from the Sea of Okhotsk) and an SS-N-23 by Delta IV "Tula" (from the Barents Sea) [Source 5, 6, 7, 8]?

The absence of the May launches may have been due to a failure to include a specific time frame in the message, as in "during the last quarter of the training year." But the press office still provided the wrong launch date for the Bulava launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy".

When you consider how deputy defense minister Yuriy Borisov and the MOD statisticians came up with different numbers of new-construction units delivered this year, you have to wonder who's really in charge of fact-checking the MOD's figures.

Russian Pacific Fleet Submarine Force: It Could Be Worse

Oscar II submarine "Omsk" returns to Rybachiy Submarine Base
(credit: RF Ministry of Defense)

The Western Military District issued a gushing press release today in which it reported that the Russian Navy Northern Fleet (no longer part of the Western Military District as of December 1, 2014) had won 13 of the 24 Russian Navy CINC trophies awarded this year. Singled out in the press release were three submarine commanding officers: Captain 1st Rank Dmitriy Ivanov (Sierra II-class nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine "Nizhniy Novgorod"), Captain 2nd Rank Denis Semyanskikh (Delta IV-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Yekaterinburg" - his crew was on "Tula" for the May 2014 launch of a single SS-N-23/Skiff ballistic missile), and Captain 2nd Rank Sergey Pirozhenko (Kilo-class diesel submarine "Kaluga").

One might think that the Pacific Fleet, which hosted this year's operational-strategic exercise VOSTOK, would have surpassed all other fleets or at least tied for first place. When your fleet's in poor shape, however, it's hard to win many.

Looking at just the Pacific Fleet's operational nuclear submarine force, there are only two Delta III-class ballistic missile submarines and two Oscar II-class cruise missile submarines capable of performing their wartime missions. The fleet has no operational Akula I-class fast-attack submarines. So, where are the rest?

• Delta III: Both "Podolsk" and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets" turned 35 years old this year. These two have served well past their design service lives because Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh" failed to transfer - in 2014, 2013, 2012, etc. - to the Pacific Fleet despite the many proclamations by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, his predecessor, and all of their subordinates. Will Delta III "Ryazan" ever return from long-term maintenance? After transferring from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet in 2008, "Ryazan" only served three years before heading to Zvezda Far East Shipyard (Bolshoy Kamen) in 2011 for repairs. The submarine has been there so long the MOD had to sign a second contract in 2013 to cover the repairs that should have been completed under the first contract.

• Oscar II: "Omsk" and "Tver" are the fleet's only two operational General Purpose Force nuclear-powered submarines, and both of them won trophies this year. "Omsk" just returned from somewhere in the past few days as suggested by a MOD tweet today. "Krasnoyarsk" is being scrapped. "Irkutsk" is at Zvezda Far East Shipyard undergoing upgrades to carry the Kalibr-family of missiles. It won't return to service until at least December 2017. "Chelyabinsk" was just delivered to Zvezda Far East Shipyard this year, and no major components have been ordered for its Kalibr upgrade. Finally, "Tomsk" transferred to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in 2008 for a simple service life extension repair period, but it has yet to return to operational service.

• Akula I: "Akula" and "Barnaul" have been scrapped. "Kashalot" has been stuck at Amur Shipyard since 2003; its fate is unknown. "Bratsk" and "Samara" were ferried on board the Dutch-flagged heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" this summer from Rybachiy to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (Severodvinsk) for Kalibr upgrades. "Kuzbass" and "Magadan" have been at Zvezda Far East Shipyard since at least 2009 and 2012, respectively; their fates also remain unclear.

In other words, of the 13 nuclear-powered submarines still on the Pacific Fleet's books, only ~31% are operational.

You can't win a soccer match if you don't have enough players on the field.