Showing posts with label kilo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kilo. Show all posts

Saturday, June 25, 2016

"Staryy Oskol" Heading to the Black Sea

"Professor Nikolay Muru" heading south through the Turkish Straits - March 4, 2016
[credit: Yörük Işık]

On June 23, "Professor Nikolay Muru" possibly began escorting new Kilo-class submarine "Staryy Oskol" as it continues its transfer to the Black Sea.

According to an anonymous source, "Staryy Oskol" departed Polyarnyy on or before June 1 following state weapons testing in the Barents Sea. The submarine was being escorted near the Netherlands on June 7. Soon after, the submarine, with its escort - rescue tug "Altay" - were spotted in the English Channel.

The trail went silent until Interfax and RIA Novosti, again citing anonymous sources, revealed on June 22 that "Staryy Oskol" was located in the central Mediterranean Sea. According to the RIA Novosti source, the submarine would transit the Turkish Straits in late June and arrive in an unspecified Russian port in early July.

AIS reporting for "Professor Nikolay Muru" - June 22-25, 2016

AIS reporting for Russian Navy rescue tug "Professor Nikolay Muru", which has been supporting Russian Navy ships operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea since March, departed Tartus, Syria, on June 17. The tug made a direct 10- to 11-knot transit to the vicinity of Malta, where it was photographed on June 23. At approximately 11:00pm GMT on June 23, the tug began transiting east and has since maintained an average speed of 7.5 knots. The slower speed suggests the tug is either escorting a slow-moving vessel or towing something.

Ship spotters should provide the answer in the coming days.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Indian Submarine Heading to Russia

"Rolldock Star" semi-submersible ship -- February 2, 2014
(credit: Rolldock)
Last month, an Indian delegation visited Zvezdochka Shipyard in Severodvinsk, Russia. A shipyard spokesman told reporters that the Indian Navy's Kilo-class submarine "INS Sindhukesari" would arrive in Severodvinsk in June 2016. Considering it would take over a month to complete a transfer from India to Severodvinsk, the transfer would have to start in May.

Track of "Rolldock Star" is at traveled between Singapore and India -- April 19-28, 2016
There are only a few companies that both possess heavy-lift vessels and have a history of supporting submarine transfers to/from Russia. The Dutch firm Rolldock, a subsidiary of Roll Group, is one of them. By regularly tracking the company's fleet of semi-submersible ships, it was easy to spot possible candidates.

"Rolldock Star" moves to deep-water area -- May 4, 2016

"Rolldock Star" departed Singapore on April 19 and arrived in Mumbai (Jawaharlal Nehru Port) on April 28. On May 4, the ship departed port and proceeded to an area about one-half nautical mile to the north. Over the next two days, the vessel remained in the deep-water area, where it likely onloaded its cargo. "Rolldock Star" departed the area during the evening hours of May 6 with a reported destination of Severodvinsk (estimated arrival date: June 12).

Track of "Rolldock Star" as it departs Mumbai -- May 6, 2016

Given the earlier statement of the submarine's arrival in Severodvinsk in June and the reported destination of "Rolldock Star", it's pretty clear that the Dutch semi-submersible ship is currently ferrying "INS Sindhukesari" to Russia.

Destination: Severodvinsk!

Monday, November 23, 2015

Follow-Up 1: Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

It has become much clearer over the past three weeks why Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" made its mysterious port call in Kronshtadt. And it's bad news for ISIS/ISIL, FSA, or whomever Russian forces are targeting in Syria these days. As one blog reader opined, "Don't you think that stories about its malfunction was just a rumor, and in reality the submarine came for specific items that later can be [launched] from warmer waters?"

As a recap, "Rostov-na-Donu" pulled into Kronshtadt on October 29 - the 14th day of its inter-fleet transit from Polyarnyy to Novorossiysk. Claims by both official and anonymous sources covered everything from "topping off supplies of all types to required norms" to repairing broken equipment. It seems the official sources were correct.



Based on drone video, "Rostov-na-Donu" tied up at this pier in Kronshtadt

While in Kronshtadt, heightened security was put into place, limiting access to the submarine's location. However, a few adventurous photographers and one amateur drone did record enough evidence showing that missiles were handled during the submarine's visit. Given the high level of security, one might conclude that it was more likely that missiles were loaded than offloaded.


Circles indicate cylindrical objects and open torpedo tubes/loading device on "Rostov-na-Donu"

The above two images, taken from a drone flying nearby, show a floating crane ("PK-175") positioned on the opposite side of the pier where "Rostov-na-Donu" had tied up in Kronshtadt. The floating crane, assisted by three harbor tugs, transferred from Admiralty Shipyards to Kronshtadt on October 28 - the day before the submarine's arrival. Multiple long, cylindrical objects are visible on the deck of the floating crane, and the submarine's torpedo tubes are open with a possible weapons loading device attached.



Circles indicate cylindrical objects on deck of floating crane

Clearer images taken on November 4, the day the submarine departed Kronshtadt, show the cylindrical objects were visible on the deck of the floating crane. Also visible on the submarine was the flag of an embarked senior naval officer. Looking back at all the photos taken of the first Kalibr-capable Kilo submarine to transfer to the Black Sea Fleet, "Novorossiysk", it is evident that this flag was never flown at any point during its departure from Polyarnyy, during its port calls in Ceuta, Spain, and Oran, Algeria, or during its arrival in Novorossiysk and subsequent transfer to Sevastopol. The flag appears to have one star, indicating a "commander of a formation" (командир соединения) is on board. The 4th Independent Submarine Brigade, which stood up in December 2014 as the new parent command for the Black Sea Fleet's submarines, qualifies as a "formation" (соединение). Thus, it is possible that the brigade's commander, Captain 1st Rank Magaram Yagishevich Adigyuzelov, or his designated representative may have embarked in Kronshtadt for the submarine's transit.

The RF Ministry of Defense did not report on the submarine's departure until November 5. It did state, however, that "Rostov-na-Donu" would now arrive in Novorossiysk by the end of November. This differs from the MOD's earlier reporting that the submarine would arrive in Novorossiysk in early December. Thus, despite the time it took to divert from its previous transit route (~1,000nm from the North Sea to Kronshtadt + ~1,000nm back) plus the seven days it spent in Kronshtadt, the new arrival time is now one-two weeks sooner than first reported. In order to transfer from Kronshtadt to Novorossiysk by November 30, the submarine would have to travel ~5,250nm in 26 days, which equates to a speed of 8.4 knots - not an unreasonable speed. It also suggests, however, that there is no time provided for any foreign port calls as they would increase the overall speed needed to complete the transit by the end of the month. Of course, the time frame provided for completion of the transit simply could have been misstated.

The Dutch Navy keeping an eye on "Rostov-na-Donu"

Two weeks later, on November 17, Russian business news agency RosBiznesKonsalting erroneously reported that "Rostov-na-Donu" had launched land-attack cruise missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The article was reproduced by some notable media outlets, such as Delovoy Peterburg, Gazeta.ru, Kommersant, and Rosbalt.ru. If this were true, the submarine would have had to travel at an overall speed of nearly 16 knots for 13 straight days direct from Kronshtadt in order to launch missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. However, the submarine was being monitored by Dutch naval ships as it transited south through the English Channel near the Netherlands on November 11. Thus, "Rostov-na-Donu" would have had to travel in excess of 19 knots for six straight days from the North Sea in order to reach the eastern Mediterranean Sea by November 17. Finally, the RF MOD has never reported that the submarine launched land-attack cruise missiles, something it most certainly would have done. Despite the improbability of "Rostov-na-Donu" launching missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea on or before November 17, RBK has neither edited nor retracted its article.

Flight bans and flight route restrictions


Earlier this month, flight bans and flight route restrictions were announced for Russian Navy exercise being held in the eastern Mediterranean Sea:

A1459/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:37 2015

A1460/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1459/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:41 2015

A1499/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:20 2015

A1500/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1499/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:34 2015

A1510/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY
353200N0353200E
341600N0340000E
334410N0343606E
THEN FOLLOWING THE FIR BOUNDARY TO 353200N0353200E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 15:37 2015

A1511/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERRED IN NOTAM LCCC A1510/15, THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78,M/UM978(ALSUS-NIKAS)
W/UW10,L/UL619(VESAR-NIKAS)
B/UB15,L/UL620(ALSUS-BALMA)
R/UR18(VELOX-ALSUS)
R/UR19(LCA-KUKLA)
R/UR655,M/UM601(LCA-BALMA)
P/UP42(DESPO-MERVA)
G/UG2(VELOX-ELIKA)
SFC-FL660. 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 16:34 2015

Flight ban areas defined in A1459/15 and A1499/15 are identical to those previously announced for similar Russian Navy exercises. Flight ban area A1510/15 is of interest as it is not known to have been used before for Russian Navy exercises. And while all of these bans expire on or before November 26, there is no reason to believe they would not be reannounced, if needed.

Of course, it would be easy to draw a direct correlation between the flight bans (those already announced and those that could be announced in the near future) and the unusual "Rostov-na-Donu" story. But...
  • Would Moscow really announce to the world the launch location and missile flight path of a future land-attack cruise missile strike?
  • Does the geography of the Mediterranean Sea, coupled with large number of international air and maritime traffic routes, necessitate the announcement of flight bans and route restrictions for land-attack cruise missiles strikes?
  • Could these flight bans serve to distract potential foreign observers away from the true launch location?

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

Screenshot of Ilya Kurganov blog posting -- October 29, 2015

Very early this morning, St. Petersburg blogger Ilya Kurganov (citing unnamed "navy officials") reported that Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" had arrived in Kronshtadt for unscheduled repairs of its electrical plant. According to the blogger:

"...it began its scheduled transfer to its home port of Novorossiysk on October 16, 2015, but within literally a few days it was necessary to call for a rescue tug, with which it headed to a location where unscheduled repairs will be performed by technicians from Admiralty Shipyards, where the submarine was built."

Interfax, citing an unknown source in the shipbuilding industry, confirmed that the submarine is in the Baltic Sea, but the source would only say that "it was forced to return to the Baltic for technical reasons." Finally, Admiralty Shipyards denied that any Russian Navy officials had contacted the shipyard to provide any technical assistance to the submarine.

Taking a closer look at the Ilya's blog post, we see:

  • The submarine was not in Kronshtadt when the blog posting was published. "Rostov-na-Donu" and the rescue tug, "SB-406", did not arrive in Kronshtadt until 11:50 this morning (local time), nearly 11 hours after the blog posting was published.
  • It was towed to Kronshtadt instead of Admiralty Shipyards, which is located less than 20 miles from Kronshtadt. Why would shipyard technicians have to travel to Kronshtadt to repair the submarine when the submarine could be repaired more easily at the shipyard where it was built? Vietnamese Navy Kilo submarine "Da Nang" left the shipyard yesterday, so there is plenty of room to accommodate "Rostov-na-Donu".
  • If this happened "within literally a few days" of its October 16 departure from Polyarnyy, why was it not towed back to Polyarnyy vice towing it to Kronshtadt - and, again, not even the shipyard that built it? Why risk any other mechanical failures over the course of another week or so of transit time?

In summary, Ilya's reporting doesn't add up, and it's hard to tell who's to blame: Ilya, his sources, or both.

Minutes before the submarine and tug moored in Kronshtadt, a Ministry of Defense official told Interfax that the purpose of the submarine's visit to Kronshtadt was to take on supplies. That makes little sense as the first Kilo submarine to transfer to the Black Sea this year, "Novorossiysk", was able to make it all the way from Polyarnyy to Ceuta, Spain, before having to take on fresh supplies.

This has all the appearance of a public affairs failure that has been noted before. Earlier this year, the Western Military District press service tried, but failed to cover up an actual emergency on board Steregushchiy-class frigate "Steregushchiy" during at-sea training. And military officials have yet to officially discuss what happened on board Delta IV-class ballistic missile submarine "Bryansk" in July 2015 when a crew member drowned in the submarine's sail.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Follow-Up 1: Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Since my July 12 blog post, Amur Shipyard has still been unable to secure contractors to tow the Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" all the way from the shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen. And it now seems impossible that the frigate will begin its transfer on August 5, as previously scheduled.

"Aldar Tsydenzhapov" keel authentication plaque -- July 22, 2015
(credit: Amur Shipyard)
On July 22, a new Steregushchiy-class frigate ("Aldar Tsydenzhapov") was laid down at Amur Shipyard. The very next day, the shipyard's contract bid review committee selected Khabarovsk-based Amur Shipping Company as the winner of the contract covering the Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard portion of the transfer. On the same day, however, the committee rejected the only two bids that had been submitted for the contract covering the longer Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18 portion of the transfer. One company, Far East Maritime Freight, may have submitted a bid that exceeded the contract's maximum costs. The bid by the second company, Shore of Good Fortune, apparently did not have tugs that met the minimum tow capacity specified in the contract.


Amur Shipyard's emergence from bankruptcy has had its hiccups. Just this week it was announced that the Khabarovsk Heating Company shut off steam and heat supplies to the shipyard, which owes the company RUB 27.5 million. And the small fire that broke out today could have been worse.

As I stated earlier, if the "Sovershennyy" transfer doesn't begin soon, the transfer of the overhauled Kilo-class submarine "Komsomolsk-na-Amure" (formerly "B-187") from the shipyard to Bolshoy Kamen will be in jeopardy of not happening this year.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Steregushchiy frigate "Sovershennyy" -- May 22, 2015

A year after emerging from bankruptcy, Amur Shipyard finds itself in a bind partly due to a miscalculation of contract costs. And if the contracts aren't signed soon, the delivery of a repaired Kilo-class diesel submarine could be delayed until 2016.

In January 2006, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed a contract (253/05/2/K/0038-06) with Amur Shipyard for the construction of Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy". The ship was laid down on June 30 the same year. The two parties signed a supplementary agreement (704/27/2/ONK/DN6/0105-10) in February 2010, four years after the original contract was signed. In November 2011, a second supplementary agreement (Z/1/1/0635/D10-11-DGOZ) was signed to continue the contract after the shipyard was declared bankrupt. In February 2014, following a visit by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, a new contract (Z/1/1/0047/D17-14-DGOZ) was signed to establish new costs for the construction of both "Sovershennyy" and "Gromkiy" (a second Steregushchiy frigate laid down in February 2012). The new contract was signed four months before Amur Shipyard officially emerged from bankruptcy. On May 22, 2015 - nine years after being laid down, "Sovershennyy" was finally rolled out.


On May 26, Amur Shipyard approved a purchase package (RUB 81,900,000) for towing "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" from Amur Shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Amur Shipyard. The towing operation was scheduled to begin no later than August 19 and involve two 600hp (or greater) tugs and one 1,800hp (or greater) tug. A month later, however, the package was withdrawn in order to modify the technical specifications of the work package.

Last week, Amur Shipyard approved two new purchase packages for the operation. The first package (RUB 49,600,000) only covers the tow route from the shipyard to Buoy 18 on the Amur Estuary and (after returning from Bolshoy Kamen) back to the shipyard. The second package (RUB 88,560,000) covers the route from Buoy 18 to Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Buoy 18. The tug requirements and start dates were also modified for both routes. Comparisons of the 2014 and 2015 contract packages are shown below.

Amount Route     Start Towing Requirements
RUB 25,000,000 Buoy 18 >  Amur Shipyard     July 5, 2014 1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)




RUB 81,900,000 Amur Shipyard > Bolshoy Kamen >  Amur Shipyard     August 19, 2015 1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)




RUB 49,600,000 Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard     August 5, 2015 2 tugs (1,800hp)




RUB 88,560,000 Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18     August 10, 2015 1 tug (7,800hp) +         1 tug (3,000hp)

Comparing the cost differences between the May package and the July packages indicates the original cost calculations were off by RUB 56,260,000. Amur Shipyard signed a similar contract (RUB 25,000,000) in 2014 for towing "Zeya" one way between Buoy 18 and the shipyard. If you double the amount, it matches nicely with the RUB 49,600,000 in the July 2015 purchase package that includes two-way towing services.

Miscalculations aside, it's amazing that Amur Shipyard has not yet signed towing service contracts for this transfer. The new contracts specify that the towing operation should commence no later than August 5 and that "Zeya" should be returned to the shipyard no later than September 1. 
The dates are important because Amur Shipyard also plans to roll-out Kilo-class diesel submarine "B-187" and transfer it to Bolshoy Kamen this year. The transfer has to be completed before Amur River becomes unnavigable due to the onset of ice conditions in late October. Any delay in transferring "Sovershennyy" could jeopardize the transfer of "B-187" this year.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base

Location of Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base
Below are some photos taken this year of the Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base, which was established to support the six Kilo submarines built by Russia between 2010 and 2016.

View from HQ building towards barracks, club, and sports center
View from HQ building towards administrative buildings and barracks
View from HQ building towards club and training center
HQ building
Submarine piers
Floating dry dock
Parade grounds
Barracks

Below are snapshots of Google Earth showing the timeline of construction of the new submarine base.

August 24, 2009
June 27, 2011
July 13, 2012
January 10, 2013
March 25, 2013
March 2, 2014

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Status of Kilo Transfers to Black Sea Fleet

Despite official claims that new Kilo-class (Project 636.3) submarines would begin arriving in the Black Sea Fleet in May-June 2015, the readiness of the first hull, named "Novorossiysk", is in question. According to one source, there may be problems with the submarine as evidenced by the lack of reporting of any activity by the submarine since it transferred to Polyarnyy in November 2014. The source indicated "something serious" occurred on the submarine before the New Year that will require its return to Admiralty Shipyards in the Baltic Sea this spring before it heads for the Black Sea.

The second unit of the new class, "Rostov-na-Donu", was commissioned into the Russian Navy on December 30. On January 8, a navy spokesman told reporters that the submarine crew was preparing to transfer to the Northern Fleet for deep-water testing of equipment and weapons. The submarine remains at Admiralty Shipyards as of today.

When President Putin visited Novorossiysk Naval Base in September 2014, he was informed by Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Vitko that construction projects at the base to support new ships [and submarines] would not be completed until late 2016. And that date has been pushed back to sometime in 2017, according to a Southern Military District press release this month. A review of contracts announced in 2014 indicates a lot of work has yet to be completed. Seven contracts specifically linked to submarine basing in Novorossiysk have reported completion deadlines of between May 2015 and February 2016, with the majority of them being completed in August or later.

Description Cost Deadline
high-pressure air stations RUB 265,636,262 May 20, 2015
high-pressure air station RUB 275,241,985 August 15, 2015
transformer substations RUB 36,241,590 August 15, 2015
battery recharging station RUB 251,979,920 October 15, 2015
battery storage facility RUB 41,477,946 October 30, 2015
barracks for submarine crews RUB 190,983,303 December 1, 2015
battery workshop RUB 375,464,251 February 28, 2016



TOTAL RUB 1,437,025,257

Despite this construction timeline, the first two new submarines can be temporarily based in Sevastopol, if needed. With regards to submarine battery recharging requirements, the converted Romeo-class submarine "PZS-50" (PZS = floating charging station) could be transferred to Novorossiysk on a temporary basis. "PZS-50" normally supports the fleet's sole Kilo submarine, "Alrosa"; however, that submarine's ongoing repairs will last through October 2015. This means "PZS-50" is free to support submarine basing requirements in Novorossiysk until that base's recharging station is completed in October, after which "PZS-50" would return to Sevastopol.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Analysis of MOD's New-Construction Numbers for RF Navy in 2014

Dolgorukiy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine
[credit: Rubin Central Design Bureau of Naval Technology]
At this week's expanded MOD collegium meeting, deputy defense minister Yuriy Borisov stated that "6 combat ships and cutters, 1 submarine... 21 auxiliary ships and vessels" were delivered to the Russian military. Those numbers appear to be somewhat correct; however, the official report published by the MOD on its website states that 2 submarines and "5 surface ships and 10 combat cutters of various classes" were delivered to the military in 2014.

Here is what I see (as of December 19) for new-construction ships, vessels, and submarines:

"6 combatant ships and cutters" (Borisov) | "5 surface ships and 10 combat cutters of various classes" (MOD report)
  • [x2] Dyugon amphibious landing craft ["Denis Davydov", "Ivan Kartsov"]
  • [x1] Serna amphibious landing craft ["D-199"]
  • [x1] Steregushchiy I frigate ["Stoykiy"]
  • [x2] Sviyazhsk patrol combatants ["Uglich", "Velikiy Ustyug"]

"one submarine" (Borisov) | "two submarines" (MOD report)
  • [x1] Dolgorukiy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine ["Vladimir Monomakh"]
  • [x1] Kilo diesel submarine ["Novorossiysk"]
  • There is still hope that Kilo diesel submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" could be delivered by the end of December

"21 auxiliary ships and vessels" (Borisov)
  • [x1] Baklan hydrographic survey vessel ["BGK-2152"]
  • [x3] Grachonok harbor protection craft ["P-355", "P-377", "P-417"]
  • [x2] PE-65 sea-going tug ["MB-134", "MB-135"]
  • [x1] Mod-Shelon VIP personnel launch ["KSV-2155"]
  • [x2] Stridsbat 90 combat personnel launches
  • [x3] SKPO-1000 harbor tanker ["Pecha", "Umba", "VTN-73"]
  • [x3] Project 16609 harbor tug ["Belukha", "RB-406", "RB-407"]
  • [x1] Project 22870 salvage and rescue tug ["SB-45"]
  • [x3] Project 23370 multi-function harbor craft ["SMK-2093", "SMK-2094", "SMK-2100"]
  • [x2] Project 90600 harbor tugs ["RB-412", "RB-413"]

Not included in either report were the following less-sexy items:

  • [x2] Project 02690 floating cranes ["SPK-19150", "SPK-42150"]
  • [x6] Project 23040 harbor diver support vessel ["RVK-933", "RVK-946", "RVK-1045", "RVK-1064", "RVK-1102", one other]
  • [x6] Project 436BIS target vessels
  • [x11] Project 455 target vessels

Borisov then stated that "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" each launched a single "Bulava" (SS-N-32) missile this year as part of their combat certifications. True, but there was a third launch by "Vladmir Monomakh" that was conducted as part of state trials - would it have hurt to mention that launch?

Friday, December 5, 2014

Third Russian-Built Kilo Submarine to Begin Journey to Vietnam Next Week

Track of "Rolldock Star" - December 4, 2014
Final preparations are underway for the transfer of the third Kilo-class diesel submarine, named "Haiphong", from Russia to Vietnam.

"Haiphong" conducted three phases of underway training for the submarine's future crew in July, August and September. The submarine then conducted two brief underway periods on October 29-November 2 and November 5-10. Over the past month, Admiralty Shipyards completed some final cosmetic touch-ups on the boat in preparation for the official hand-over.

In October, shipyard officials stated that "Haiphong" would depart for Vietnam before December 10. And it looks like that may be close to the truth.

The heavy-lift ship "Rolldock Star" (IMO: 9656498) departed Antwerp, Belgium, at 14:00 GMT today en route to St. Petersburg, where it is expected to arrive at 15:00 GMT on December 8. "Rolldock Star" was used to ferry the second Vietnamese Kilo ("Ho Chi Minh City") from Russia to Vietnam earlier this year. With an approximate six-week transit, the heavy-lift ship should arrive in Cam Ranh Bay in late-February 2015.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Possible Land-Attack Cruise Missile Launch Scheduled for Next Week

Flight bans (yellow) and an area closure for missile activity (red) - December 8-10, 2014
                        [updated December 6 to include flight bans and modify launch candidates]

Unusual flight bans and area closure for Barents Sea missile activity have been announced for December 8-10:

G2604/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
692800N 0351600E-695500N 0351400E-702900N 0450400E-691700N 0474000E-684500N 0474000E-683600N 0475000E-683000N 0482000E-682800N 0492000E-682000N 0494000E-681000N 0490000E-680900N 0482000E-675500N 0481000E-675000N 0474000E-675200N 0472000E-683100N 0463800E-681800N 0452500E-694500N 0435000E-692100N 0360000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC 17:00 2014.
G2610/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
692800N 0351600E-692100N 0360000E-691500N 0351000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC
17:00 2014. CREATED: 05 DEC 05:02 2014
HYDROARC 349/14
ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
MISSILES.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1100Z DAILY 08 THRU 10 DEC IN AREA BOUND BY:
69-55.0N 035-14.0E, 70-29.0N 045-04.0E, 68-54.0N 048-13.5E, 68-43.0N 048-37.0E, 68-03.0N 049-54.0E, 67-35.0N 047-52.0E, 67-49.0N 046-42.0E, 68-29.0N 045-47.0E, 69-45.0N 043-50.0E, 69-15.0N 035-10.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 101200Z DEC 14.
The area closure has two legs measuring approximately 215nm and 180nm - for a total length of nearly 400nm. The range is longer than known ranges of Russian anti-ship cruise missiles, and the dog-leg turn is not something one would expect of an anti-ship cruise missile area closure, suggesting this is a land-attack cruise missile launch. The eastern-most leg ends at the shoreline that is adjacent to Cheshkaya Guba.

While the launch platform is not yet known, there are at least two candidates, both of which are armed with the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile (range: 800nm-1,400nm, depending on the warhead payload):

  • Severodvinsk-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Severodvinsk"
  • Kilo-class diesel submarine "Novorossiysk", which arrived in Polyarnyy last month
[Follow-up: On December 8, Victor III-class nuclear-powered submarine "Obninsk" successfully launched a cruise missile from a submerged location in the Barents Sea towards the Chizha Test Range, according to a Northern Fleet spokesperson.]

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Construction Pace for Domestic Kilo Submarines

Kilo SS "Rostov-na-Donu" heading out for factory sea trials - October 21, 2014
(Image credit: A. Akentyev)

The Russian Ministry's public affairs office reported yesterday that the test program for "Rostov-na-Donu" - the second new Project 636.3 Kilo-class diesel submarine built for the Russian Navy - was "nearing completion." That sounded odd given that the submarine didn't commence factory sea trials until October 21 of this year. But a closer review suggests the statement may be closer to truth than fiction.

The tables below depict the major milestones in the construction of the first three hulls of the new series.


                             "Novorossiysk"
Keel laid August 20, 2010         -        -
Launched November 28, 2013  1,216        -
Sea trials start May 30, 2014  1,399  +183
Delivery August 22, 2014  1,483    +84




                            "Rostov-na-Donu"
Keel laid November 21, 2011        -         -
Launched June 26, 2014    948         -
Sea trials start October 21, 2014  1,065  +117
Delivery December 31, 2014  1,136    +71


                              "Staryy Oskol"
Keel laid August 17, 2012         -         -
Launched August 28, 2014     741         -
Sea trials start May 2015         -         -
Delivery August 2015         -         -

There are easily identifiable differences in the day counts between the major milestones in the tables. For example, the time between keel-laying and launch of the three units decreased from 1,216 days ("Novorossiysk") to 948 days ("Rostov-na-Donu") and to 741 days ("Staryy Oskol"). That's a nearly 22% decrease in time between the two milestones when comparing "Novorossiysk" to ""Rostov-na-Donu" and nearly 40% when comparing "Novorossiysk" to "Staryy Oskol". Additionally, the shipyard shaved off 22% between the same period of time for the second and third hulls.

The significant decreases in time between keel-laying and launch can be explained by a combination of factors, to include:
  • delivery of design documentation --- the later it arrives, the later the first unit will launch
  • first of the series --- as with any new program, the first unit (even one that is only a slightly modified version of an existing submarine class) is bound to have a few construction/design issues that impact production
  • sub-contractor deliveries --- major components are often ordered in batches, meaning successive unit construction should not be delayed
  • improvements in shipbuilding processes when building multiple orders of the same submarine class
  • workforce availability --- the shipyard has had to seek additional temporary manpower after "Novorossiysk" in order to fulfill both domestic and export submarine construction project timelines
When comparing the differences in the day counts between launches and commencement of sea trials for the first two units, there is another notable difference: 183 days versus 117 days. Admiralty Shipyards could have decreased the time period by 36% for most, if not all, of the same reasons listed above. But one factor that probably only impacted the first unit was the time of year. "Novorossiysk" was launched in November. The Gulf of Finland becomes treacherous and impassable without icebreaker support roughly between late November and mid-April. The initial phase of factory sea trials have to be performed close to the shipyard or in the Gulf of Finland, whereas later testing phases can be performed in the ice-free regions of the central and southern Baltic Sea. This same issue may impact "Staryy Oskol" as it prepares for factory sea trials in the near future.

Finally, if the above MOD report is correct and "Rostov-na-Donu" will be delivered by the shipyard no later than December 31, the projected time period between commencement of sea trials and delivery will be at most 71 days, which is 13 days (15%) shorter than for "Novorossiysk". Using the timeline day counts for "Rostov-na-Donu" and factoring in the time of year, projected timeline dates for "Staryy Oskol" would be late May for commencement of sea trials and early August for delivery.

Projecting timeline dates for the next three Kilos, however, is tricky. In order for Admiralty Shipyards to meet the delivery deadline of 2016, as stated multiple times by various high-level military officials, the shipyard's construction timelines will have to be more aggressive. The last two units, "Kolpino" and "Velikiy Novgorod", were laid down last month. If it takes two years between keel-laying and launch (using "Staryy Oskol" as the model), then both units will be facing the same Gulf of Finland seasonal weather issues that impacted "Novorossiysk". Therefore, unless things change, they will not be delivered to the MOD until spring or summer 2017.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

"Novorossiysk" to Depart for Northern Fleet This Week?

Kilo SS "Novorossiysk" August 22, 2014
(Image courtesy of Admiralty Shipyards)
There have been several statements by design and shipbuilding industry officials over the past year discussing an interfleet transit of the first new domestic Project 636.3 Kilo-class diesel submarine, "Novorossiysk", to the Northern Fleet area for additional testing. After the submarine joined the Russian Navy on August 22 of this year, everyone has been wondering when it will depart.

"Novorossiysk" conducted a 30-hour check ride on October 11-12 before returning to Admiralty Shipyards - the submarine's only underway period since being commissioned. Two auxiliaries arrived at the shipyard yesterday, probably in support of the transfer: Goryn-class oceangoing tug MB-119 (which first towed Bereza-class degaussing vessel SR-926 to Kronshtadt) and Toplivo-class oiler VTN-34.

Also visiting Admiralty Shipyards yesterday was Sidehole-class harbor tug RB-250, which made a round trip from Angliyskaya Naberezhnaya, and passenger ferry PSK-1562, which made a round trip from  Kronshtadt.

Admiralty Shipyards doesn't normally see this much visitor traffic, so it's a good sign that something unusual is about to occur. And it's not related to factory sea trials for Belousov-class submarine rescue ship IGOR BELOUSOV, as that ship has not even completed initial deperming operations. And the next transfer of Vietnamese Kilo "Haiphong" won't happen until later this year - and that will involve a semi-submersible heavy-lift ship, not a smaller oceangoing tug.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Overhauled Kilo Subs Remain Kalibr-less

Kilo "Vladikavkaz" - September 19, 2014
(Image courtesy of Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center)
Six new (Project 636.3) Kilo-class diesel submarines are being built for the Russian Navy at Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. All six, which are destined for the Black Sea Fleet, will be armed with the Kalibr-family of missiles: the SS-N-27 Sizzler anti-ship cruise missile, the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile, and the 91R ASW missile. But will happen with the older Kilos?

Two 25-year-old Northern Fleet Kilos have undergone overhauls at Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center in Severodvinsk, but the overhauls apparently do not include backfitting them with the Kalibr system.

"Kaluga" arrived at the shipyard in 2002 for repairs, but without a decision on whether to repair or scrap the submarine, it remained idle for about six years. In 2008, Onega Scientific Research Technological Design Bureau drafted documentation for "medium repairs" (i.e., overhaul, which gives the submarine another 10 years of service) of the submarine, but only in 2010 was "Kaluga" finally moved into a repair hall. The submarine was rolled back out in May 2012. In 2013, the shipyard made it clear that "Kaluga" was not backfitted with the Kalibr system.

"Kaluga" was inactive so long that the crew it had in 2002 had been nearly disbanded, reduced to just a few crew members. As such, the crew of another Kilo, "Yaroslavl" (commanded by Captain 2nd Rank Oleg Mikholap), manned "Kaluga" throughout its post-overhaul sea trials (2012-2013) and transfer back to Polyarnyy (July 2013). In 2013, Mikholap was replaced by his executive officer, Captain 3rd Rank Yuriy Gusarov, as the "Yaroslavl" commanding officer; however, as "Yaroslavl" was non-operational, Gusarov's crew remained on "Kaluga". In October-November 2013, just three months after returning from the shipyard, "Kaluga" (under Gusarov's command) conducted a month-long deployment (area unknown). Gusarov and his crew remained on "Kaluga" as late as June 2014 and could still be on board.

The second Kilo to be overhauled at Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center, "Vladikavkaz", was transferred to Severodvinsk in 2008. Due to a similar "indecision-making" process, a contract for the submarine's "medium repairs" was not signed until 2011. The submarine was rolled into the repair hall in late 2011 for a nearly two-year overhaul period. The submarine rolled out of the repair hall on September 19 of this year and will be returned to the Russian Navy in late 2015.

Although neither Kilo was backfitted with the Kalibr missile system, they did receive the MGK-400V.1 sonar system, which provides improved sonar capabilities. Other upgrades were made to navigation and weapons-related components.

Next up: either "Magnitogorsk" or "Yaroslavl". "Magnitogorsk" has been performing duties in the Baltic Fleet since late 2013 (it did a similar Baltic Fleet deployment in 2012). Its return to the Northern Fleet may have been delayed until one of the Baltic Fleet's own Kilos, "Vyborg", returns to service following lengthy repairs. "Yaroslavl" has been inactive for at least two years. As with "Kaluga" and "Vladikavkaz", none of these old Kilos are expected to receive Kalibr upgrades.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Russia Sending Subs to Black Sea?

In early-February, Rear Admiral Aleksandr Fedotenkov, Commander of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, told a RIA Novosti reporter that the fleet expects to receive six Kilo-class diesel submarines by 2017.  His statement requires a little dissection in order to understand the likelihood of this happening and reasoning behind such plans.

1.  Wording.  Given the propensity of Russian news outlets to paraphrase what an interviewee actually says, let’s look at what Fedotenkov was quoted as saying:
“Подводные лодки проекта 636 в серии из шести кораблей, которые уже заложены на судостроительном заводе "Адмиралтейские верфи" в Санкт-Петербурге, придут на флот до 2017 года. Первые три корпуса мы получим в 2014 году, одну - в 2015 году и две - в 2016 году . Эти лодки станут основой для формирования полноценной бригады подводных лодок Черноморского флота. К тому времени в боевом составе флота останется фактически единственная подлодка "Алроса" проекта 877. На основе опыта подводной службы моряков-подводников Черноморского флота будет сформирована бригада подплава флота из кораблей 636 проекта.”
“A series of six Project 636 [Kilo] submarines, which have already been laid down at Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg, will arrive in the fleet before 2017.  We will receive the first three hulls in 2014, one in 2015, and two in 2016.  These submarines will be the basis for establishing a complete brigade of Black Sea Fleet submarines.  At that time, the sole Project 877 [Kilo] submarine Alrosa will still be in the fleet’s combat inventory.  Based on the experience of submarine service by Black Sea Fleet submariners, a brigade of Project 636 [Kilo] submarines will be established.”
The phrase “already laid down” is an overstatement, at best.  What Fedotenkov could have said - or meant to say - was the metal bending may have started for six new Kilo (Project 06363 (636.3)) units, but not that the keels had been laid down.  Not having the luxury of hearing an audio recording of his statement, it’s hard to know if Fedotenkov misspoke or if the RIA Novosti reporter (Sergey Safronov) paraphrased what the admiral said.  The first two units of the new Kilo design to be laid down are named after Russian cities in the Black Sea area (Novorossiysk and Rostov-na-Donu), which strongly suggests these two likely will end up in the Black Sea.

2.  Basing.  Can the Black Sea Fleet provide support for six additional submarines?  Let’s remember that the Russian Black Sea Fleet was left with seven submarines in 1997:

  • Beluga [Project 01710] SS-533
  • Bravo [Project 690] SS-226, SS-256, SS-310
  • Foxtrot [Project 641] B-9
  • Kilo [Project 877] Alrosa
  • Tango [Project 641B] B-380

The Beluga, Bravo, and Foxtrot units have been stricken.  This only allows for five (not six) new units to be based in Sevastopol.  Note that the Mod-Romeo [Project 633RV] floating recharging station PZS-50, based in Sevastopol’s Yuzhnaya Bukhta, is not listed in the 1997 agreement that divided the forces between Ukraine and Russia.  The submarine still flies the Russian Navy flag and supports Russian Navy operations in Sevastopol.  It is unclear to me what status this unit has.  But if rumors are true, PZS-50 will be scrapped soon, and B-380 will become the new floating charging station.  And if PZS-50 was not counted against Russia’s inventory of seven submarines, then B-380 would not.  Thus, if B-380 is scrapped or converted, then the final number of six “new” units can be reached.  Fedotenkov’s statement that the submarines would be based both in Novorossiysk and Sevastopol suggests the Russians eventually will get serious about upgrading the port of Novorossiysk to support at least a few submarines.

3.  Construction.  It is feasible that six new Kilos could be built by 2017.  Two are currently under construction at Admiralty Shipyards.  It is rumored that SevMash will begin construction of a third unit next month.  And there are more rumors that Krasnoye Sormovo in Nizhniy Novgorod soon could get back in the submarine construction business.

4.  Why the Black Sea?  According to a September 2009 document uncovered by the WikiLeaks project, Admiral Mark Fitzgerald (Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe) informed the Spanish Ministry of Defense of its European Phased, Adaptive Approach (PAA) to Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).  Admiral Fitzgerald “noted the extensive plans and requirements for ship-based ballistic missile defense in the Black Sea region.”  Fitzgerald told reporters in April 2010 the BMD ships probably would need to patrol the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea.

The Russians can read WikiLeaks and Navy Times, too.  And so it is no surprise that Russia now views any Aegis-capable ship (equipped with either AN/SPY-1A or AN/SPY-1B) operating in the Black Sea as something worthy of taking a closer look.  In 2011, Ticonderoga-class cruisers USS ANZIO (CG 68), USS MONTEREY (CG 61) and USS PHILIPPINE SEA (CG 58) conducted operations in the Black Sea.  In January 2012, Ticonderoga USS VELLA GULF (CG 72) also operated in the Black Sea region.  Obviously, the U.S. Navy has both an interest and the will to operate in the Black Sea despite Russia’s negative perceptions of the United States’ plans to deploy BMD assets in its backyard.

Having seven Kilo submarines in its arsenal would allow Russia to counter U.S./NATO forces operating in the Black Sea should tensions worsen in the region.  Given that the new Project 06363-type Kilo will be armed with the Kalibr missile system, capable of launching the 3M54/SS-N-27 antiship cruise missile and the 3M14/SS-N-30 long-range (in excess of 1,000 kilometers) land-attack cruise missile, U.S./NATO forces will have fun trying to keep track of how many LACMs actually are deployed at sea and at which facilities those missiles are targeted.