Status of Kilo Transfers to Black Sea Fleet

Despite official claims that new Kilo-class (Project 636.3) submarines would begin arriving in the Black Sea Fleet in May-June 2015, the readiness of the first hull, named "Novorossiysk", is in question. According to one source, there may be problems with the submarine as evidenced by the lack of reporting of any activity by the submarine since it transferred to Polyarnyy in November 2014. The source indicated "something serious" occurred on the submarine before the New Year that will require its return to Admiralty Shipyards in the Baltic Sea this spring before it heads for the Black Sea.

The second unit of the new class, "Rostov-na-Donu", was commissioned into the Russian Navy on December 30. On January 8, a navy spokesman told reporters that the submarine crew was preparing to transfer to the Northern Fleet for deep-water testing of equipment and weapons. The submarine remains at Admiralty Shipyards as of today.

When President Putin visited Novorossiysk Naval Base in September 2014, he was informed by Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Vitko that construction projects at the base to support new ships [and submarines] would not be completed until late 2016. And that date has been pushed back to sometime in 2017, according to a Southern Military District press release this month. A review of contracts announced in 2014 indicates a lot of work has yet to be completed. Seven contracts specifically linked to submarine basing in Novorossiysk have reported completion deadlines of between May 2015 and February 2016, with the majority of them being completed in August or later.

Description	Cost	Deadline
high-pressure air stations	RUB 265,636,262	May 20, 2015
high-pressure air station	RUB 275,241,985	August 15, 2015
transformer substations	RUB 36,241,590	August 15, 2015
battery recharging station	RUB 251,979,920	October 15, 2015
battery storage facility	RUB 41,477,946	October 30, 2015
barracks for submarine crews	RUB 190,983,303	December 1, 2015
battery workshop	RUB 375,464,251	February 28, 2016
TOTAL	RUB 1,437,025,257

Despite this construction timeline, the first two new submarines can be temporarily based in Sevastopol, if needed. With regards to submarine battery recharging requirements, the converted Romeo-class submarine "PZS-50" (PZS = floating charging station) could be transferred to Novorossiysk on a temporary basis. "PZS-50" normally supports the fleet's sole Kilo submarine, "Alrosa"; however, that submarine's ongoing repairs will last through October 2015. This means "PZS-50" is free to support submarine basing requirements in Novorossiysk until that base's recharging station is completed in October, after which "PZS-50" would return to Sevastopol.

Possible Land-Attack Cruise Missile Launch Scheduled for Next Week

Flight bans (yellow) and an area closure for missile activity (red) - December 8-10, 2014

                        [updated December 6 to include flight bans and modify launch candidates]

Unusual flight bans and area closure for Barents Sea missile activity have been announced for December 8-10:

G2604/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
692800N 0351600E-695500N 0351400E-702900N 0450400E-691700N 0474000E-684500N 0474000E-683600N 0475000E-683000N 0482000E-682800N 0492000E-682000N 0494000E-681000N 0490000E-680900N 0482000E-675500N 0481000E-675000N 0474000E-675200N 0472000E-683100N 0463800E-681800N 0452500E-694500N 0435000E-692100N 0360000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC 17:00 2014.

G2610/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
692800N 0351600E-692100N 0360000E-691500N 0351000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC
17:00 2014. CREATED: 05 DEC 05:02 2014

HYDROARC 349/14
ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
MISSILES.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1100Z DAILY 08 THRU 10 DEC IN AREA BOUND BY:
69-55.0N 035-14.0E, 70-29.0N 045-04.0E, 68-54.0N 048-13.5E, 68-43.0N 048-37.0E, 68-03.0N 049-54.0E, 67-35.0N 047-52.0E, 67-49.0N 046-42.0E, 68-29.0N 045-47.0E, 69-45.0N 043-50.0E, 69-15.0N 035-10.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 101200Z DEC 14.

The area closure has two legs measuring approximately 215nm and 180nm - for a total length of nearly 400nm. The range is longer than known ranges of Russian anti-ship cruise missiles, and the dog-leg turn is not something one would expect of an anti-ship cruise missile area closure, suggesting this is a land-attack cruise missile launch. The eastern-most leg ends at the shoreline that is adjacent to Cheshkaya Guba.

While the launch platform is not yet known, there are at least two candidates, both of which are armed with the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile (range: 800nm-1,400nm, depending on the warhead payload):

• Severodvinsk-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Severodvinsk"
• Kilo-class diesel submarine "Novorossiysk", which arrived in Polyarnyy last month

[Follow-up: On December 8, Victor III-class nuclear-powered submarine "Obninsk" successfully launched a cruise missile from a submerged location in the Barents Sea towards the Chizha Test Range, according to a Northern Fleet spokesperson.]

Construction Pace for Domestic Kilo Submarines

Kilo SS "Rostov-na-Donu" heading out for factory sea trials - October 21, 2014
(Image credit: A. Akentyev)

The Russian Ministry's public affairs office reported yesterday that the test program for "Rostov-na-Donu" - the second new Project 636.3 Kilo-class diesel submarine built for the Russian Navy - was "nearing completion." That sounded odd given that the submarine didn't commence factory sea trials until October 21 of this year. But a closer review suggests the statement may be closer to truth than fiction.

The tables below depict the major milestones in the construction of the first three hulls of the new series.

"Novorossiysk"
Keel laid	August 20, 2010	-	-
Launched	November 28, 2013	1,216	-
Sea trials start	May 30, 2014	1,399	+183
Delivery	August 22, 2014	1,483	+84
"Rostov-na-Donu"
Keel laid	November 21, 2011	-	-
Launched	June 26, 2014	948	-
Sea trials start	October 21, 2014	1,065	+117
Delivery	December 31, 2014	1,136	+71

"Staryy Oskol"
Keel laid	August 17, 2012	-	-
Launched	August 28, 2014	741	-
Sea trials start	May 2015	-	-
Delivery	August 2015	-	-

There are easily identifiable differences in the day counts between the major milestones in the tables. For example, the time between keel-laying and launch of the three units decreased from 1,216 days ("Novorossiysk") to 948 days ("Rostov-na-Donu") and to 741 days ("Staryy Oskol"). That's a nearly 22% decrease in time between the two milestones when comparing "Novorossiysk" to ""Rostov-na-Donu" and nearly 40% when comparing "Novorossiysk" to "Staryy Oskol". Additionally, the shipyard shaved off 22% between the same period of time for the second and third hulls.

The significant decreases in time between keel-laying and launch can be explained by a combination of factors, to include:

• delivery of design documentation --- the later it arrives, the later the first unit will launch
• first of the series --- as with any new program, the first unit (even one that is only a slightly modified version of an existing submarine class) is bound to have a few construction/design issues that impact production
• sub-contractor deliveries --- major components are often ordered in batches, meaning successive unit construction should not be delayed
• improvements in shipbuilding processes when building multiple orders of the same submarine class
• workforce availability --- the shipyard has had to seek additional temporary manpower after "Novorossiysk" in order to fulfill both domestic and export submarine construction project timelines

When comparing the differences in the day counts between launches and commencement of sea trials for the first two units, there is another notable difference: 183 days versus 117 days. Admiralty Shipyards could have decreased the time period by 36% for most, if not all, of the same reasons listed above. But one factor that probably only impacted the first unit was the time of year. "Novorossiysk" was launched in November. The Gulf of Finland becomes treacherous and impassable without icebreaker support roughly between late November and mid-April. The initial phase of factory sea trials have to be performed close to the shipyard or in the Gulf of Finland, whereas later testing phases can be performed in the ice-free regions of the central and southern Baltic Sea. This same issue may impact "Staryy Oskol" as it prepares for factory sea trials in the near future.

Finally, if the above MOD report is correct and "Rostov-na-Donu" will be delivered by the shipyard no later than December 31, the projected time period between commencement of sea trials and delivery will be at most 71 days, which is 13 days (15%) shorter than for "Novorossiysk". Using the timeline day counts for "Rostov-na-Donu" and factoring in the time of year, projected timeline dates for "Staryy Oskol" would be late May for commencement of sea trials and early August for delivery.

Projecting timeline dates for the next three Kilos, however, is tricky. In order for Admiralty Shipyards to meet the delivery deadline of 2016, as stated multiple times by various high-level military officials, the shipyard's construction timelines will have to be more aggressive. The last two units, "Kolpino" and "Velikiy Novgorod", were laid down last month. If it takes two years between keel-laying and launch (using "Staryy Oskol" as the model), then both units will be facing the same Gulf of Finland seasonal weather issues that impacted "Novorossiysk". Therefore, unless things change, they will not be delivered to the MOD until spring or summer 2017.

"Novorossiysk" to Depart for Northern Fleet This Week?

Kilo SS "Novorossiysk" August 22, 2014
(Image courtesy of Admiralty Shipyards)

There have been several statements by design and shipbuilding industry officials over the past year discussing an interfleet transit of the first new domestic Project 636.3 Kilo-class diesel submarine, "Novorossiysk", to the Northern Fleet area for additional testing. After the submarine joined the Russian Navy on August 22 of this year, everyone has been wondering when it will depart.

"Novorossiysk" conducted a 30-hour check ride on October 11-12 before returning to Admiralty Shipyards - the submarine's only underway period since being commissioned. Two auxiliaries arrived at the shipyard yesterday, probably in support of the transfer: Goryn-class oceangoing tug MB-119 (which first towed Bereza-class degaussing vessel SR-926 to Kronshtadt) and Toplivo-class oiler VTN-34.

Also visiting Admiralty Shipyards yesterday was Sidehole-class harbor tug RB-250, which made a round trip from Angliyskaya Naberezhnaya, and passenger ferry PSK-1562, which made a round trip from  Kronshtadt.

Admiralty Shipyards doesn't normally see this much visitor traffic, so it's a good sign that something unusual is about to occur. And it's not related to factory sea trials for Belousov-class submarine rescue ship IGOR BELOUSOV, as that ship has not even completed initial deperming operations. And the next transfer of Vietnamese Kilo "Haiphong" won't happen until later this year - and that will involve a semi-submersible heavy-lift ship, not a smaller oceangoing tug.