Russian Pacific Fleet Launches Bastion CDCM

Bastion coastal defense cruise missile launch -- July 22, 2016
[credit: Russian Pacific Fleet press service]

On July 22, the Eastern Military District press service announced that a Pacific Fleet Coastal Troops unit had launched a Bastion (SSC-5 Stooge) coastal defense cruise missile. Although the press service did not mention when the launch occurred, the target wasn't in place until July 22, and metadata from pictures taken of the launch indicate the launch date was July 22.

An area closure, two flight bans, and three flight route restrictions were announced for the missile launch activity:

NAVAREA XIII 51/16
ZALIV PETRA VELIKOGO
CHARTS RUS 62071 60300
1. MISSILE EXERCISES FOR 11 HOURS FROM 2300 UTC 21 22 24 AND 25 JUL IN AREA BOUNDED BY 41-33-18N 132-22-48E 42-10-48N 131-42-48E 42-45-00N 131-15-00E COASTLINE 42-51-12N 131-25-00E 42-32-00N 132-10-12E 42-03-12N 133-02-06E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 261100 UTC JUL 16.

P6757/16 - 21 2300-22 0300, 22 0500-1000, 22 2300-23 0300, 23 0500-1000, 24 2300-25 0300, 25 0500-1000, 25 2300-26 0300, 26 0500-1000
TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 422430N 1322400E-420312N 1330206E-413318N 1322248E-421048N 1314248E-421747N 1313715E-422430N 1322400E.
SFC - FL280, 21 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 26 JUL 10:00 2016.

P6758/16 - 21 2300-22 0300, 22 0500-1000, 22 2300-23 0300, 23 0500-1000, 24 2300-25 0300, 25 0500-1000, 25 2300-26 0300, 26 0500-1000
ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B355 LUPAS - VATIS, B356 GALDI - KESAN, G705 BISUN - RIVAT.
SFC - FL280, 21 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 26 JUL 10:00 2016.

P6759/16 - 21 2300-22 0300, 22 0500-1000, 22 2300-23 0300, 23 0500-1000, 24 2300-25 0300, 25 0500-1000, 25 2300-26 0300, 26 0500-1000
AIRSPACE CLSD WI COORD: 425112N1312500E-423200N1321012E-422430N1322400E-421747N1313715E-424500N1311500E-425112N1312500E.
SFC - FL080, 21 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 26 JUL 10:00 2016.

Area closure, flight bans, and flight route restrictions -- July 21-25, 2016

Although the Bastion has a range of 600+ km (324+ nm), the target was located a mere 53 km (29 nm) from the launch point. According to the press statement, the missile successfully impacted the target based on reports by observer ships and aircraft. The target was subsequently towed back to Bukhta Abrek for re-use in future missile launch exercises.

The Ministry of Defense's Zvezda television station broadcast video of the launch on July 22.

Impending Pacific Fleet Exercise

Akula I nuclear-powered submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") near La Perouse Strait -- June 20, 2016
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

All signs are pointing to a large-scale Russian Navy exercise taking place in the Sakhalin Island, southern Sea of Okhotsk, and Kuril Islands this week. At least four submarines, sixteen warships, and two auxiliaries were noted by Japanese P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft passing through the La Perouse and Tsushima Straits in mid-June, as described below:

Jun 15	Slava cruiser "Varyag" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 17	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 18	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 19	Grisha frigate "Kholmsk" | Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-18" + "R-298" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 20	Akula I nuclear submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") | Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Tributs" | Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" |  Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-14" + "R-29" | Nanuchka III patrol combatants "Iney" + "Moroz" + "Razliv" | Grisha frigate "Koreyets" | Chilikin replenishment oiler "Boris Butoma" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 21	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
	Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" | Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov" | Ropucha landing ships "Admiral Nevelskoy" + "Peresvet" | ocean-going tug "Aleksandr Piskunov" noted heading south through Tsushima Strait

While there has been no official announcement of an exercise, social media sources indicate that the ships began departing the Vladivostok area on June 14 for an exercise. According to those sources, the ships will not return to port until mid-July.

"Varyag" was not in Vladivostok when the ships began departing. It was returning from a Mediterranean Sea deployment that began in November of last year. Its last port call was Singapore in early June.

Also missing from the mix is a task group consisting of Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov", Dubna oiler "Irkut", and Baklazhan rescue tug "Fotiy Krylov"; they were last noted visiting Myanmar in mid-May. Although the task group's current whereabouts are unknown, social media sources indicate "Admiral Vinogradov" will not return to Vladivostok until early August, which provides plenty of time to participate in this event.

Area closures (red), flight bans (yellow), and flight route closures (green) for missile activity -- July 5-9

Over the past week, Russia announced a number of area closures, flight bans, and flight route closures:

NAVAREA XIII 44/16
NORTH PACIFIC
CHART RUS 61031
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 05 TO 07 JUL 0000 TO 0300 AND 0400 TO 0800 IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-13-30N 148-48-00E 44-45-00N 148-15-00E 45-26-00N 149-18-00E 45-40-00N 149-58-00E 45-53-00N 150-06-00E 45-56-00N 150-11-00E 46-59-00N 152-35-00E 45-28-00N 153-41-00E 44-08-00N 153-23-00E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 070900 JUL 16

NAVAREA XIII 46/16
SEA OF OKHOTSK
CHART RUS 61018
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 072300 TO 080300 UTC JUL 08 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC 082300 TO 090300 UTC JUL 09 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-28-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 147-24-00E 45-08-00N 147-24-00E 44-49-00N 147-09-36E COASTLINE 44-44-06N 147-07-54E 44-27-00N 146-34-00E COASTLINE 44-28-00N 146-04-30E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 090900 UTC JUL 16

P6342/16 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B917 OSGEN - NELER, B919 ORSUK - LAVNI, B932 NETRI - ODERI,mG239 IKADA - SARET, G583 LATAK - BISIV, G810 SARET - ALODI. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6343/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 460000N 1451600E-460000N 1472400E-450800N 1472400E-444900N 1470930E-444600N 1470748E-442700N 1463600E-442800N 1460500E-442800N 1454300E-443900N 1451600E-460000N 1451600E. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6365/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 07 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 07 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6367/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 0000-0300 0400-0800, 08 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 08 JUL 08:00 2016.

Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft flights east of Japan -- June 27-28, 2016

Probably related to the movement of ships, on June 27-28, two Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft were noted operating east of Hokkaido and northern Honshu.

Russian Navy Activity Summary, February 2016

Landing ship "Ivan Gren" undergoing initial deperm - February 2016

Date	Event
Feb 2	Submarine “Vladikavkaz” returned to Polyarnyy after "long-distance" mission
Feb 2	New deep-submergence submarine rescue vehicle "AS-40" temporarily embarked on submarine rescue ship "Alagez"; will transfer to "Igor Belousov" after it transfers to Pacific Fleet
Feb 4	New-construction landing ship “Ivan Gren” commenced initial deperming near Yantar Baltic Shipyard
Feb 6	Frigate "Admiral Essen" began first phase of state acceptance testing
Feb 8	Surprise combat readiness inspection began in Southern Military District (augmented by elements of the Central Military District); inspection ended on Feb 12
Feb 10	Frigate "Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Gorshkov" completed 15-day dock repair period at Shipyard 35 in Murmansk
Feb 11	Frigate "Admiral Grigorovich" returned to Yantar Baltic Shipyard for spruce work before scheduled commissioning ceremony on March 11
Feb 13	Kalibr-armed patrol combatant "Zelenyy Dol" and minesweeper "Kovrovets" departed Sevastopol en route to the   Mediterranean Sea; "Zelenyy Dol" arrived in Tartus, Syria, on Feb 17
Feb 18	Third Project 22160 patrol ship "Pavel Derzhavin" laid down at Gorkiy Zelenodolsk Shipyard
Feb 19	Project 19910 hydrographic survey vessel “Admiral Rogotskiy” laid down at October Revolution Shipyard (Blagoveshchensk)
Feb 21	Intelligence collection ship "Priazovye" noted heading southbound through Turkish Straits
Feb 24	Flight ban and route closures went into effect for "Russian Navy exercises" in the eastern Mediterranean Sea; valid through Feb 29
Feb 24	Oceanographic research vessel "Admiral Vladimirskiy" completed Antarctica survey and began transit to Cape Town, South Africa
Feb 29	Floating workshop "PM-138" joined Russian Navy task group in the Mediterranean Sea; to relieve "PM-56"

Follow-Up: Kalibr Missile Shooter Heading to Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban and flight route closures for "Russian Navy exercise" -- February 24-29, 2016

Two NOTAM warnings have been issued for Russian Navy "rocket test firings" that may occur in the eastern Mediterranean Sea next week:

A0126/16 -
RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:45 2016 

A0127/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFFERRED IN NOTAM A0126/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
1. W/UW17 (BALMAS-NIKAS)
2. R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:55 2016

The flight ban and flight route closures are identical to those announced for "Russian Navy exercises" in the past.

"Zelenyy Dol" transiting the Turkish Straits -- February 14, 2016
(credit: Yörük Işık)

Three Russian Navy combatants are currently operating in the eastern Mediterranean: the missile cruiser "Varyag", the destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov", and the missile ship "Zelenyy Dol". The latter arrived in Tartus, Syria, on February 17. While there is growing suspicion that "Zelenyy Dol" may launch land-attack cruise missiles into Syria during its current deployment, different flight bans and route closures were used when Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" launched four land-attack cruise missiles into Syria in December 2015.

Russian Navy Activity Summary, January 2016

DSRV "AS-40" (right) + DSRV "AS-28" (left) on board "Alagez" submarine rescue ship -- February 2, 2016

Date	Event
Jan 2	Research vessel "Admiral Vladimirskiy” arrived in Cape Town, South Africa; departed on Jan 4
Jan 3	Cruiser “Varyag” entered Mediterranean Sea via Suez Canal; to relieve “Moskva”
Jan 6	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Da Nang, Vietnam; departed Jan 9
	Project 18271/Bester-1 deep-submergence submarine rescue vehicle “AS-40” recently arrived in Pacific Fleet; to be temporarily embarked on submarine rescue ship “Alagez” until “Igor Belousov” transfers to Pacific Fleet
	Frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” returned to Baltiysk following 28-day deployment to Northern Fleet to conduct weapons testing
Jan 9	Cruiser “Moskva” returned to Sevastopol following 108-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 10	Ocean-going tug “MB-97” departed Kronshtadt; subsequently arrived in Baltiysk on Jan 12 for permanent basing; to be commissioned in Feb 2016
Jan 12	Crew of new-construction frigate “Admiral Makarov” sent to St. Petersburg to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 13	Hull numbers on several Black Sea Fleet combatants changed as early as Jan 13 – specifically, the middle digit was changed. Over the course of several days, the following changes were noted (old > new): cruiser “Kerch” (713 > 753), frigate “Ladnyy” (801 > 861), frigate “Pytlivyy” (808 > 868), destroyer “Smetlivyy” (810 > 870); no other hull number changes noted in the Black Sea Fleet or any other fleet area
Jan 14	Northern Fleet’s Arctic Oceanographic Expedition recently stood up; to perform systematic research of the water areas of the Arctic Sea and territories of Russian arctic islands; successor to Northern Hydrographic Expedition (1924-2011)
Jan 17	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Shanghai, China; departed Jan 21
Jan 18	Research vessel “Admiral Vladimirskiy” reached Lazarev Sea and began its Antarctic survey work
	Crews of new-construction submarines “Kolpino” and “Velikiy Novgorod” sent to Obninsk to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 23	Landing ship “Korolev” returned to Baltiysk following 249-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 25	Fire broke out on “PD-41” floating dry dock at Shipyard 30 in Dunay; no reporting on any damage to ships that were inside the dock at the time
Jan 26	Destroyer “Bystryy” returned to Vladivostok following 85-day deployment

Russian Navy Exercise in Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban (yellow) and flight route restrictions (red) for Russian Navy combat drills -- January 8-11, 2016

In late January, flight bans and route restrictions were announced for a Russian Navy exercise:

A0037/16 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

A0039/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM A0037/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17 (BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
BTN SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

The flight ban and flight route restrictions are identical to those used before by the Russian Navy.

While there has been no official statement by military public affairs representatives about the exercise, there are two naval combatants operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that could utilize the area: Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" (Pacific Fleet) and Udaloy I-class destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov" (Northern Fleet). Last month, the destroyer conducted anti-air warfare training that included simulated surface-to-air missile and gunnery drills.

Musical Submarine Rescue Ships

"Sayany" submarine rescue ship in Valletta, Malta - September 3, 2015
[credit" Emmanuel L.]

On August 31, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Black Sea Fleet Prut-class submarine rescue ship "EPRON" had departed the Black Sea en route to India for unspecified "international military cooperation" with that country's naval forces. The ship transited the Suez Canal, entered the Red Sea on September 3, and is scheduled to arrive in India in early October. "EPRON" last deployed out of the Black Sea in 2011 to support NATO's Bold Monarch submarine rescue exercise near Spain.

What exactly "EPRON" will do in India and for how long is unknown. With the departure of the Black Sea Fleet's sole fully functional submarine rescue ship, this would appear to indicate no submarine operations will occur in the Black Sea for some time. However, Pacific Fleet Rudnitskiy-class submarine rescue ship "Sayany" is currently in the Mediterranean Sea. It was photographed in Valletta, Malta, on September 3, and there is reason to believe it will head into the Black Sea in the near future.

So, what's really going on?

All of Russia's four fleets have submarine rescue ships in their inventories:

- The Northern and Pacific Fleets each have two Rudnitskiy-class ships equipped with deep-submergence rescue vehicles (DSRV); the Pacific Fleet also has the DSRV-equipped Elbrus-class ship "Alagez". Both fleets also have two DSRVs; however, one of the Northern Fleet's DSRVs is currently undergoing a two-year maintenance cycle at Kanonerskiy Shipyard (St. Petersburg).

- The Baltic Fleet has one DSRV-equipped Kashtan-class ship - SS-750.

- The Black Sea has the "EPRON" and the 100-year-old Kommuna-class ship "Kommuna". While "EPRON" is equipped with a rescue chamber, since 2007 the "Kommuna" has had no equipment capable of bringing stranded submariners to the surface. It is equipped only with small remotely-operated vehicles (ROV) capable of surveying the distressed submarine and providing limited support to rescue operations.

Thus, the Pacific Fleet is the only fleet with two operational DSRVs, and the only fleet capable of deploying it (on board "Sayany") to the Mediterranean Sea. As with the Baltic and Northern Fleets, the Pacific Fleet can continue submarine operations with a single operational DSRV.

"Kommuna" submarine rescue ship with "AS-5" DSRV on board - December 2005

In a July 17 Krasnaya Zvezda article about "Kommuna" was this tell-tale paragraph:

In the future, "Kommuna" will again have rescue work. In the near future, six new diesel-electric submarines will arrive in the Black Sea Fleet, and the safety of their operations needs to be ensured. And so plans for "Kommuna" include receiving a rescue submersible and carrying out rescue ship missions.

"Kommuna" was last equipped with a DSRV (Project 1837-class "AS-5") between 1998 and 2006. In 2007, "AS-5" was transferred to the Baltic Fleet, where it served until being stricken from service last year. The above statement, however, suggests the rescue ship may once again serve as the mothership for a DSRV. And that DSRV may be delivered by "Sayany".

If the Krasnaya Zvezda article is correct in suggesting "Kommuna" will take on the Pacific Fleet DSRV on a permanent basis, that means "Sayany" will return to Vladivostok empty, leaving the Pacific Fleet with only one DSRV. While that may be workable for a short time, it would be impossible to operate submarines were the sole remaining DSRV to be out-of-service, either for routine or unscheduled maintenance, for many months. And while Russian Navy's four newer Project 18551/Priz-class DSRVs can be transported via air, road, and train between fleet areas, that is far from the optimal way of providing submarine rescue support.

Yet, the Pacific Fleet was forced to operate in just this way in 2005-2008 and 2012-2013 when the fleet's two DSRVs took turns undergoing long-overdue repairs and upgrades. And it is under these conditions that the Northern Fleet is currently operating - one operational DSRV, one undergoing upgrades. However, from a geographical perspective, the impact on the Northern Fleet is negligible compared to the Pacific Fleet. The farthest distance between Northern Fleet submarine bases (Kola area and Severodvinsk) is approximately 330 nautical miles. Placing a rescue ship somewhere between those two bases would ensure a DSRV could be on station to support operations near both bases and could arrive at the location of a distressed submarine in less than 10 hours. The Pacific Fleet, on the other hand, has two submarine bases (Vladivostok and Kamchatka Peninsula) that are located nearly 1,200 nautical miles apart. Placing a DSRV-equipped submarine rescue ship at 600 nautical miles from either base means it would not arrive at the location of a downed submarine for nearly 30 hours.

"Igor Belousov" with "AS-40" DSRV on board - May 7, 2015
[credit: Curious]

Enter Russia's newest submarine rescue ship, "Igor Belousov", with the fleet's newest DSRV, Project 18271/Bester 1-class "AS-40". Since leaving Baltiysk in August for Phase 4 of factory sea trials, the "Igor Belousov" crew has been testing the ship's diver chamber and Pantera Plus ROV at design depths in the Atlantic Ocean. After being commissioned, the rescue ship will eventually join the Pacific Fleet, probably in 2016, which means the fleet will once again have two DSRVs in its inventory.

The transfer of the Pacific Fleet DSRV will provide the Black Sea Fleet with a much needed boost in submarine rescue capabilities. With the arrival of the first new Kilo-class submarine in the Black Sea later this month and five more over the next 18 months, the Russian Navy cannot risk supporting its growing undersea arsenal using 1950's technology.

Pacific Fleet Launches Another SSC-6

SSC-6 Sennight area closure -- July 27-August 1, 2015

According to a spokesman for Russia's Eastern Military District, a Pacific Fleet missile unit recently launched an SSC-6 Sennight (Russian name: 3K60 Bal) anti-ship cruise missile from a position near Cape Povorotnyy. The target was stricken auxiliary vessel located 50 kilometers from shore. The target was reportedly "destroyed", earning the missile unit a score of "outstanding."

The missile launch occurred within an announced area closure:

HYDROPAC 2421/15

SEA OF JAPAN.
RUSSIA.
MISSILES.
DNC 23, DNC 24.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1000Z
COMMENCING DAILY 27 THRU 30 JUL
IN AREA BOUND BY
41-13-00N 133-36-00E, 42-05-30N 133-04-42E,
42-17-30N 133-03-00E, 42-37-00N 133-01-18E,
42-41-30N 133-03-12E, 42-42-00N 133-10-00E,
42-41-48N 133-10-18E, 42-33-30E 133-34-30E,
42-28-00N 133-49-12E, 41-48-12N 134-43-00E,
41-36-30N 134-26-18E, 41-28-00N 134-12-42E,
41-21-00N 133-56-12E.
2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 2414/15.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 311100Z JUL 15.//

Authority: NAVAREA XIII 85/15 240902Z JUL 15.

Date: 240945Z Jul 15
Cancel: 31110000 Jul 15

This is at least the second SSC-6 launch in the Pacific Fleet this year; the first occurred on April 28.

Cruise Missiles Launched in Sea of Okhotsk

Area closures (red), flight ban (yellow), and flight route restrictions (green) for anti-ship cruise missile launches

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, two naval anti-ship cruise missiles were launched from the Sea of Okhotsk on July 1. At least one of them overflew the Kamchatka Peninsula to strike a target east of the peninsula.

Area closures, a flight ban, and flight route restrictions were declared over the affected areas for June 29 through July 2:

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 78/15 CHART 61025
SEA OF OKHOTSK
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 58-39-12N 155-39-06E 59-12-12N 156-10-00E 58-40-00N 159-25-12E
SHORE 57-52-48S 157-34-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 79/15 CHART 60103
BERING SEA
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 54-42-12N 165-34-12E 56-06-18N 162-08-00E SHORE
58-13-30N 162-04-12E 57-16-18N 167-38-12E 55-38-00N 167-45-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

P4325/15 NOTAMN
Q) UHPP/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/330/5620N16440E115
A) UHPP B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORDINATES:
 575700N 1634036E-571618N 1673812E-553800N 1674548E-
 544212N 1653412E-554412N 1630430E-575700N 1634036E.
F) SFC  G) FL330

P4324/15 NOTAMN
Q) UUXX/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/330/5746N16321E320
A) UHPP UHMM B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
 B237 DIVIN - AMETO,
 B240 TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED,
 B241 BERUD - GITRU,
 B242 DIPNA - NIKOLSKOYE NDB (NK),
 B244 APTIK - RITAR,
 B327 BAMOK - IRKAN,
 B484 DIVIN - MUROL,
 B804 BALUB - OSMOR,
 B962 RAMKA - OTLIM,
 G583 NILAR - IRKAN.
F) SFC  G) FL330

According to the first report, an SS-N-19 Shipwreck anti-ship cruise missile was fired by a simulated enemy nuclear-powered submarine [the report did not indicate which Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine - "Omsk", "Tomsk", or "Tver" - played this role]. MIG-31 Foxhound fighters were scrambled "at supersonic speeds" to the "lower levels of the stratosphere" to search for, intercept, and shoot down the missile. The fighters were aided by an A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The blue circle indicates a 300nm range for an SS-N-12 launched at the far western edge of the Sea of Okhotsk area closure

The MOD's second report indicated that Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" launched an SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missile "at maximum range" against a sea target. According to a post-launch damage assessment, the sea target was "successfully damaged." Given that the maximum operational range of the SS-N-12 is 300 nautical miles, the only way this would be true is if the missile flew over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Considering the layout and geometry of the area closures and flight ban, the missile would have had to travel southeasterly from the Sea of Okhotsk.

The events, which are most likely part of the ongoing "exercise" that began in early June, occurred on the eve of the Pacific Fleet Submarine Forces' 77th anniversary, which was celebrated today.

Update: Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Kilo submarine spotted near La Perouse Strait -- June 18
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It took a little time, but the Eastern Military District has finally announced what was already evident: the Pacific Fleet is carrying out a large exercise. According to today's announcements:

The readiness of fleet forces (troops) to carry out actions as part of tactical groups will be inspected during the exercise, which will be under the control of combined unit commanders in the Sea of Japan, the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, and in Avacha Bay.

During the phased inspection, levels of combat readiness of execution of elements of combat training will be assessed for ship, submarine, naval aviation and coastal troop commands on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the Primorye Kray. Nearly 50 ships and auxiliary vessels, 40 aircraft and helicopters, and up to 14,000 servicemen and civilian specialists will be part of the inspection.

Additionally, Kamchatka-based SSC-1 Sepal coastal defense cruise missile units have been put on alert and deployed to launch points as part of the exercise.

Not much in terms of naval ship participation has changed since this unfolding exercise was first discussed on Monday. According to social media, Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" and Udaloy I destroyers "Admiral Vinogradov" and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" departed Vladivostok earlier this week after loading weapons at nearby Fokino. And Kilo submarine activity continues to be observed near the La Perouse Strait.

While the official announcements so far only point to a naval exercise, there have been some other notable training events in the Eastern Military District this week that may suggest the naval training activities could morph into a larger military district event.

• During one training event, 300 district-level peacekeeping troops were ordered to provide security at an unspecified Primorye Kray airfield as humanitarian aid was being flown in and as refugees were being flown out of an area that had experienced some type of emergency. Nearly 300 soldiers and naval infantrymen were activated for this event.

• On June 18, Airborne Troops, along with MI-8 Hip and MI-24 Hind helicopters, SU-25 Frogfoot close air support fighters, and IL-76 Candid transport aircraft, held a command-staff exercise at the Sosonovyy Bor training range near Ulan-Ude. One of the BMD-2 vehicles dropped during the training fell to the ground after its parachute failed to deploy. The accident may have led to a forest fire which has spread to nearly 730 hectares, although local officials are still investigating.

• Nearly 2,000 district troops and 600 pieces of heavy equipment are deploying to the Sergeyevskiy training grounds in the Primorye area for live-fire drills.

Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Grisha frigate "Koreyets" conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 1, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It appears that Vladivostok-based naval units are heading towards Sakhalin Island, the Kuril Islands, and the Kamchatka Peninsula for what has become an annual event: preparing for the next Eastern Military District-level exercise.

It's hard to hide their movements when they transit the La Perouse Strait, which runs between Russia (Sakhalin Island) and Japan (Hokkaido). Below are the dates and units that have conducted an eastbound transit of the La Perouse Strait so far:

June 1	Grisha frigates "Koreyets" and "Metel"
June 5	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 7	Tarantul III patrol ships R-19, R-29, and R-298
June 9	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 10	unidentified Kilo submarine

Unidentified Kilo submarine conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 10, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

Based on social media clues, the following ships are also heading out on voyages lasting anywhere from one to two months, thus making them prime candidates for whatever events are about to occur east of the La Perouse Strait:

• Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov"
• Grisha frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"
• Slava cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Marshal Shaposhnikov"
• Vishnya intelligence collection ship SSV-208 "Kurily"

Past Eastern Military District-level exercises have been spread out across a vast region, from Sakhalin Island to the Bering Sea. Some of these units will not transit beyond Sakhalin Island, while others will preposition to the Kamchatka area to await further orders. As a reminder, last year's workup for the "Vostok-2014" operational-strategic exercise also took place east of Kamchatka.

And another MOD "surprise inspection" before the main event should be no surprise to anyone.

Where in the World is "Admiral Panteleyev"?

Udaloy I destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" - undated

On February 4, a Russian Navy Pacific Fleet surface action group led by Udaloy I-class destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" departed Vladivostok for what was supposed to be a three-month deployment. That deployment has now stretched into its fifth month, and no one knows for sure when it will return to its home port.

The group, which also includes two auxiliary vessels (Dubna tanker "Pechenga" and Goryn rescue tug "SB-522"), was reported to be conducting training in the South China Sea a week later. The group was supposed to arrive in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, but that port call never happened due to changes in operational plans, according to an anonymous source.

Following a short port call in Sattahip, Thailand, in early March, a six-day port call in Langkawa, Malaysia, in mid-March, and a brief port call in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in late march, "Admiral Panteleyev" and its support vessels headed into the Indian Ocean. The official story ends when the ships departed Colombo on April 1.

The reason the Russian MOD has not released any new information on the group's whereabouts may be connected to the mission it is currently performing. On April 12, the MOD announced that Black Sea Fleet Vishnya intelligence collection ship SSV-201 "Priazovye" was involved in evacuating combat zone refuges from Yemen to Djibouti, even though the spy ship's participation began at least two weeks earlier. If the "Admiral Panteleyev" group were some how involved in an ongoing humanitary mission, one might expect the MOD to publicly tout the destroyer's efforts. But there has only been silence.

Social media, on the other hand, has provided a few clues. In early May, the destroyer was reportedly anchored near Africa, but not in a port. In early June, "Pechenga" made a port call in Salalah, Oman, to take on supplies before returning to the destroyer's location. It seems the destroyer hadn't moved from the same anchorage at which it arrived in May. While the exact whereabouts remain a mystery, according to one source, the ship is supposed to conduct a port call - somewhere - in the coming days. As for when it might return to Vladivostok, one source indicated mid-August as a likely time frame.

What is "Admiral Panteleyev" doing that is so secret?

If a Target Sinks Before You Strike It, Does It Make a Noise?

*** updated on May 26 to provide additional details of launch location ***

"PM-140" sinking before being used as a CDCM target -- May 22, 2015

On May 16, an area closure in the Sea of Japan was announced for May 20-23 and was designated for missile firings.

HYDROPAC 1618/15

SEA OF JAPAN.
RUSSIA.
MISSILES.
DNC 23, DNC 24.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1000Z
COMMENCING DAILY 20 THRU 22 MAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
41-38.5N 132-43.6E, 42-32.0N 132-51.0E,
42-41.0N 133-02.2E, 42-39.4N 133-19.0E,
42-01.3N 134-11.5E, 41-40.0N 133-32.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 231100Z MAY 15.//

Authority: NAVAREA XI 350/15 161746Z MAY 15.

Date: 161748Z May 15
Cancel: 23110000 May 15

Missile launch area closure -- May 20-23, 2015

Given that the area closure covers land, it was logical to assume it would be used for the launch of a coastal defense cruise missile (CDCM). The range between the two farthest points measures approximately 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles). The last Russian CDCM launch in the Sea of Japan occurred on April 28, when at least one SSC-6 Sennight (Russian: 3K60 Bal) was launched from a position adjacent to the Shepalovo recreational facility - about 21 kilometers (11.5 nautical miles) southeast of Nakhodka. The area closure for the April launch was longer - nearly 170 kilometers (92 nautical miles) between the farthest points - and narrower than this month's area closure.

Pictures posted to the internet on May 26, but dated May 21, show an SSC-6 being deployed to the vicinity of Cape Povorotnyy.

SSC-6 Sennight deployed near Cape Povorotnyy -- May 21, 2015

SSC-6 Sennight deployed near Cape Povorotnyy -- May 21, 2015

Using the towers as visual clues, we can easily find them within the announced area closure and can project the general launch position.

Northernmost portion of SSC-6 Sennight area closure

Cape Povorotnyy radar/communications towers

Cape Povorotnyy radar/communications towers

Cape Povorotnyy radar/communications towers, reoriented towards the sea to match the SSC-6 launcher images above

Cape Povorotnyy has been a popular site for earlier CDCM launches, as these photos from 1992 and 1994 show..

CDCM launch from Cape Povorotnyy -- 1992

CDCM launch from Cape Povorotnyy -- 1994

Despite the differences in size and configuration, it's evident that another CDCM launch was planned. Had another SSC-6 launch occurred, one would have expected naval officials to tout the second successful launch of the missile. Yet there have been no reports from the Russian Navy about any CDCM launch this past week.

The mystery behind the silence may be the premature sinking of the target ship for the exercise, retired Amur-class floating workshop "PM-140".

According to a video uploaded to YouTube on May 23, the target ship sank while being towed by Sorum-class oceangoing tug "MB-37". Subsequent internet chatter indicated the launch of an SSC-6 was scheduled for May 22, but the loss of "PM-140" forced fleet officials to quickly find a replacement target ship and try again on the next day, which, according to one source, most likely occurred.



Since retiring, "PM-140" had served as a target ship during multiple anti-ship cruise missile and artillery events. Since all strikes occurred well above the waterline, the ship was able to be towed back to port and reused during subsequent exercises.

"PM-140" used as target ship during "Vostok-2010" exercise -- June 26, 2010

"PM-140" waiting for its last missile exercise -- April 7, 2015

What was the replacement target? And why hasn't the Pacific Fleet issued a press release about the latest launch of its newest CDCM - if, in fact, there was a launch on May 23?

Pacific Fleet Ballin'

Area closure and 70nm range ring for SSC-6 Sennight ASCM launch - April 28, 2015

At approximately 3:30pm local time on April 28, personnel from the Russian Pacific Fleet's 72nd Coastal Artillery Troops Regiment (based on Smolyaninovo) launched at least one SSC-6 Sennight (Russian name: 3K60 Bal) road-mobile anti-ship cruise missile against a seaborne target. The launch area was within about three nautical miles of Cape Povorotnyy, which is located about 12 nautical miles southeast of the port of Nakhodka.

The launch occurred within an announced area closure:

HYDROPAC 1343/15

SEA OF JAPAN.
MISSILES.
DNC 24.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1000Z COMMENCING DAILY
27 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
41-12-45N 133-16-00E, 41-52-30N 133-02-00E,
42-38-15N 132-57-00E, 42-42-30N 133-00-00E,
42-42-00N 133-10-00E, 42-06-00N 133-48-30E,
41-30-00N 134-13-30E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301100Z APR 15.//

Authority: NAVAREA XIII 43/15 220904Z APR 15.

Date: 221030Z Apr 15
Cancel: 30110000 Apr 15

Below are photos of the launch that were released by the Pacific Fleet's public affairs office.

'The Diplomat' Assessment of Russia's Pacific Fleet Needs Re-Work

Franz-Stefan Gady's article on the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet would have been forgettable were it not for the fact that RIA Novosti picked it up three days later. So, let's review Gady's statements:

"In the last two years, Russia’s second-biggest fleet, the Pacific Fleet, has been receiving new ships for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2013 the fleet obtained a new Borei-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), and is expecting five more over the next decade. The fleet has furthermore received one Dyugon-class landing craft in 2014."

-- Between December 25, 1991 (which many consider to be the end of the Soviet Union), and now, at least 16 new-construction submarines, surface combatants, and landing craft joined the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet.

• Dolgorukiy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (x2)
• Grachonok landing craft (x3)
• Grisha V light frigate (x1)
• Nanuchka III patrol combatant (x1)
• Ondatra landing craft (x1)
• Serna landing craft (x1)
• Tarantul III patrol combatant (x6)
• Udaloy I destroyer (x1)

"Another Borei-class SSBN, the Vladimir Monomakh, is expected to enter the service of the Pacific Fleet this year. Its sister ship, the Borei-class SSBN Alexander Nevsky, recently conducted a successful single test-launch of the Bulava inter-continental ballistic missile in the Kamchatka Peninsula."

-- Using Gady's argument that "Aleksandr Nevskiy" is already part of the Pacific Fleet, "Vladimir Monomakh" has been part of the Pacific Fleet since it was commissioned on December 19, 2014.

-- SLBMs are not launched "in the Kamchatka Peninsula." They are launched from a body of water towards an impact range. In this case, the Bulava was launched in Sep 2014 from a submerged location in the White Sea towards the Kura Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

"The Pacific Fleet is also expecting two Steregushchy-class corvettes, multipurpose ships for littoral zone operations, in 2015."

-- Wrong. Based on published contract information, only one Steregushchiy frigate ("Sovershennyy") is currently scheduled to be transferred in fall 2015 from Amur Shipyard to the Vladivostok area for outfitting. While factory sea trials and state testing are scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year, there is no guarantee the frigate will join the Pacific Fleet by the end of 2015.

"The first of six Yasen-class multi-purpose attack nuclear submarines (SSGN) projected to enter service in the Far East over the next ten years will join the Pacific Fleet in 2017 at the earliest."

-- Not likely. The first Severodvinsk unit will stay in the Northern Fleet for the foreseeable future. Hull sections for the second unit ("Kazan") will be mated sometime this year, with a launch possible in 2016 and delivery possible in 2017. Given that it is the first modernized Severodvinsk, it, too, probably will stay in the Northern Fleet for some time. Although no one has specified which Severodvinsk submarines will join the Pacific Fleet, the first unit that likely will join that fleet is "Novosibirsk", which was laid down in July 2013. But unless the shipyard's construction pace picks up, that unit probably will not launch earlier than 2017 and will not be delivered earlier than 2018.

"The surface fleet includes one heavy nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser...three guided missile destroyers..."

-- Kirov-class nuclear powered cruiser "Admiral Lazarev" has been in mothball status for at least 15 years. Despite having undergone minor dock work last year - limited to repainting the hull and verifying the ship could remain afloat for a few more years before being scrapped, the 30-year-old cruiser is not likely to undergo an overhaul or upgrade. Also, it's unclear which Sovremennyy destroyers Gady includes in his calculations.

"The only SSBN operational is the new Borei-class Alexander Nevsky."

-- Yes, if you don't count the two operational Delta III SSBNs "Podolsk" (which launched an SS-N-18 SLBM in May 2014) and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets" (which returned from a patrol in December 2014), and, of course, a second Dolgorukiy (“Vladimir Monomakh"). If you apply Gady's logic that "Admiral Lazarev" should be included as part of the Pacific Fleet order-of-battle, then we should add Delta III ("Ryazan"), which is undergoing long-term repairs at Zvezda Far East Shipyard and could return to service in 2016, thus making it closer to operational status that "Admiral Lazarev".

"...the main task for the Pacific Fleet in 2015 will be to maintain complete control of the Northern Sea Route..."

-- The Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command, established on December 1, 2014, has this mission, not the Pacific Fleet, which would only support the Northern Fleet as required. Besides, with the limited numbers of operational combatants, the ability of the Russian Pacific Fleet "to maintain complete control of the Northern Sea Route" is, likewise, limited.

"However, in 2015 we will see very little change in Russia’s maritime posture in the region."

-- Concur.

Putin Bringing Big Guns to G20 Summit

Russian Federation President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
(Image credit: TASS)

During next week's Group of 20 Summit in Brisbane, Australia, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have something in his back pocket - something few other world leaders (if any) will have: his own naval task group.

In September, it was announced that, despite calls to prevent Putin from attending the G20 Leaders' Summit, the Russian president was expected to participate.

On October 23, a Russian Pacific Fleet surface task group departed Vladivostok for "combat service in southern areas of the Pacific Ocean," according to a naval spokesman. The group consists of Slava-class cruiser "Varyag", Udaloy I-class destroyer "Marshal Shaposhnikov", Baklazhan-class salvage and rescue tug "Fotiy Krylov", and Chilikin-class replenishment oiler "Boris Butoma".

While no press reporting to date has indicated exactly where in the south Pacific these ships will operate, leave it to social media to spill the details. In early November, some family members or loved ones of sailors on a couple of the task group's ships specifically indicated Australia as a future operating area. One source concerned about loosing cellphone contact with her loved one wrote, "There are no shorelines anywhere along the way to Sydney!" Another source reported that the ships would travel to Australia first before commencing a return leg towards Vladivostok.

Russian ships traveling to faraway exotic ports to support presidential visits is not unusual. Udaloy II-class destroyer "Admiral Chabanenko" supported President Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to Venezuela in November 2008, and "Varyag" called in San Francisco in June 2010 to support President Medvedev's visit to California. Even closer to home, Slava-class cruiser "Moskva" was in Sochi this August to support meetings between President Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

What makes this deployment strange is that no one in Canberra has mentioned any port calls by the "Varyag" task group. And if there are no scheduled port calls, why is the task group heading in that direction? How exactly does demonstrating the flag off the coast of Australia support Putin's G20 Summit plans?

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats

Akula I SSN "Bratsk" (left) and "Samara" (right) loaded on "Transshelf" - August 2014
(image courtesy of vkontakte.ru)

Nuclear-powered icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" escorting "Transshelf" - September 16, 2014
(image courtesy of RosAtomFlot)

Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", with Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines "Bratsk" and "Samara" loaded on board, arrived in the vicinity of Severodvinsk on September 23. According to a spokesperson for Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center, which has been contracted to conduct repairs and upgrades of the two submarines, "Transshelf" will remain near the Nikolskoye entrance buoy until weather improves.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 11, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats (September 16, 2014)

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia with Nuke Boats (September 19, 2014)