Which Subs Will Be Upgraded to Carry Kalibr?

In 2014, Admiral Viktor Chirkov, head of the Russian Navy, stated:

"By 2020, 12 multipurpose nuclear-powered submarines are scheduled to undergo deep modernization: Project 949AM – four units, Project 971M – six units, Project 945M – two units. Characteristics of these submarines will not be inferior to foreign equivalents, but rather, in terms of certain criteria, such as strike missile weapon loads, they will be superior to their foreign equivalents."

In this context, "deep modernization" most certainly refers to reconfiguring the submarines to carry the Kalibr family of missiles (SS-N-27 antiship cruise missile, SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile, and 91R antisubmarine missile) and, in most (if not all) cases, upgrading to the MGK-540M (Kizhuch) sonar system. Based on multiple statements and a review of repair contracts and annual stockholder reports, the following is a list of known candidates that fit Chirkov's "deep modernization" projections:

Class	Name	Age
Akula I	"Bratsk"	27
Akula I	"Leopard"	22
Akula I	"Samara"	19
Akula I	"Volk"	23
Oscar II	"Chelyabinsk"	24
Oscar II	"Irkutsk"	26
Oscar II	"Tver"	22
Sierra I	"Karp"	27
Sierra I	"Kostroma"	24

There certainly are other upgrade candidates, including announced upgrades for specific units, but none of them appear to be in place for an upgrade shipyard period before 2020. Also note that Chirkov's projections do not specify upgrades to old Kilo diesel submarines or Victor III nuclear-powered submarines. Contracts for the ongoing repairs of Sierra II "Pskov" and Victor III "Tambov" provide no indications of Kalibr or major sonar system upgrades. Victor III "Obninsk" completed a repair period in 2014, which was classified by shipyard officials as a "restoration of technical readiness" and not "deep modernization." Thus, the recent launch of a probable land-attack cruise missile by "Obninsk" indicates that submarine is simply being used as a test platform.

The question still remains: can all this really be achieved by 2020? Given Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center's experience and record, it is certainly possible that the six units the shipyard was contracted to upgrade will be finished by 2020. The same cannot be said for Zvezda Far East Shipyard, which has a record of continually delayed repair schedules and a (criminal) history of not actually performing the repairs it was contracted and paid to perform. The MOD currently has at least five cases against Zvezda Far East Shipyard at various levels in the Russian arbitration court system and is seeking to receive over RUB 111.5 million in payments and fines. Factors that will impact both shipyards are continuing Western sanctions, the loss of access to Ukrainian firms that produced parts and components used in Russian submarines, and the ruble crisis.

In 2020 and beyond, the field of candidates for Kalibr/Kizhuch upgrades could include the following:

Class	Name	Age (in 2020)
Akula I	"Kuzbass"	28
Akula I	"Magadan"	31
Akula I	"Nerpa" ("INS Chakra")	9
Akula I	"Pantera"	30
Akula I	"Tigr"	27
Akula II	"Gepard"	19
Akula II	"Vepr"	25
Oscar II	"Omsk"	27
Oscar II	"Orel"	28
Oscar II	"Smolensk"	30
Oscar II	"Tomsk"	24
Oscar II	"Voronezh"	31
Sierra II	"Nizhniy Novgorod"	30
Sierra II	"Pskov"	27

Trick-or-Treat: Russian Sub Crew Casts Early Vote in U.S. Presidential Election

Sierra II nuclear-powered submarine (source: oosif.ru)

Bill Gertz, who isn't shy about his pro-Republican tendencies, decided to publish a news piece about a Russian nuclear-powered submarine operating near the U.S. east coast -- on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.  While the U.S. Navy's Chief of Naval Operations refuted Gertz's earlier claims of an Akula-class submarine operating in the Gulf of Mexico, no named military official has yet weighed in on the latest claim of a Sierra II-class nuclear-powered submarine operating along U.S. shores.

Had Gertz done just a little research, he could have found a Russian Navy intelligence collection ship (AGI) moored in Havana, Cuba, on September 23 -- possibly the same ship mentioned in his recent piece.  He could have found chatter suggesting a Russian Navy rescue tug recently visited Jacksonville, Florida -- not far from where Gertz claims the Russian submarine was operating.  And he could have cited official Russian military reporting that indicated a Russian Navy ship (or ships) had visited Jacksonville as early as October, thus providing some level of corroboration of the aforementioned chatter.  Perhaps Gertz did not notice that a Royal Navy SSBN recently launched a Trident II D5 ballistic missile from somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, not far from the United States, and very close to Kings Bay.  Wouldn't a British boomer be of some import to a prowling Russian submarine given that a British SSBN likely would be patrolling in waters closer to Russia than a U.S. SSBN?  These juicy tidbits could have added some real substance to his story, regardless of its veracity. But instead of doing any heavy lifting, he decided to cite anonymous sources and forgo any level of research, thus attesting to his true intent -- to generate a scandal in hopes of swaying voters. 

Washington Free Beacon looking for someone with spell-checking (and research) skills

Now that the article is growing legs, the details of the story are beginning to mutate.  Gertz's misspelling of Sierra as Seirra was replicated twice by the British tabloid Daily Mail, which also demonstrated its inability to copy-paste details from Gertz's article into its own story.  Instead of the Russian ship visiting Jacksonville, Daily Mail actually reported the U.S. granted the Russian submarine permission to enter Jacksonville during Hurricane Sandy.

Daily Mail looking for someone who can spell-check and translate from English into English

Let's see if the story gets its due respect and is buried under today's sunrise-to-sunset election coverage.  Perhaps a certain Republican ex-governor can look out her window and see if there are any other Russian submarines lurking near the United States.