XLT: Rubin Designing Submarine Imitator for RF Navy

Surrogat submarine imitator
[credit: Rubin Central Design Bureau]

                                                      [Translation of TASS news article]

ROBOT CAPABLE OF IMMITATING ANY SUB BEING CREATED FOR RF NAVY
TASS
December 6, 2016

According to designer, vehicle will be notable for is simplicity of use and low maintenance and upgrade costs

MOSCOW, December 6. /TASS/. Specialists at Rubin Central Design Bureau have developed a draft concept of the Surrogat robotic complex to be used in RF Navy training. According to the design bureau, talks with the Navy about this project are in progress.

"Surrogat is equipped with a lithium-ion battery. The submarine imitator is capable of supporting training for up to 15-16 hours and will simulate a foreign submarine's maneuvers the entire time, to include at high speeds. Comparatively large dimensions (approximate 17-meter length) and an ability to employ various towed antennas will allow the vehicle to realistically simulate an enemy submarine's physical fields - acoustic and magnetic," says the Rubin Central Design Bureau.

The imitator vehicle's modular design allows for its functionality to be altered: Surrogat can imitate both a non-nuclear and nuclear submarine, as well as conduct mapping and survey missions.

Surrogat submarine imitator
[credit: Rubin Central Design Bureau]

"Today combat submarines must be used in exercises or testing, which takes them away from executing their primary missions. Using an unmanned imitator will help avoid this and lower the cost of training. Additionally, an unmanned submarine reduces risks while preserving a level of realism. This vehicle will be notable for its simplicity of use and low maintenance and upgrade costs. We are now consulting with RF Navy representatives to ensure the imitator fully satisfies the Navy's requirements," Rubin Central Design Bureau general director Igor Vilnit explained.

Rubin is not ruling out interest in Surrogat by foreign customers.

The Surrogat autonomous unmanned submarine displaces about 40 tons, has a range of about 600 miles at a speed of 5 knots, a maximum speed of more than 24 knots, and a maximum diving depth of 600 meters.

"Staryy Oskol" Heading to the Black Sea

"Professor Nikolay Muru" heading south through the Turkish Straits - March 4, 2016

[credit: Yörük Işık]

On June 23, "Professor Nikolay Muru" possibly began escorting new Kilo-class submarine "Staryy Oskol" as it continues its transfer to the Black Sea.

According to an anonymous source, "Staryy Oskol" departed Polyarnyy on or before June 1 following state weapons testing in the Barents Sea. The submarine was being escorted near the Netherlands on June 7. Soon after, the submarine, with its escort - rescue tug "Altay" - were spotted in the English Channel.

The trail went silent until Interfax and RIA Novosti, again citing anonymous sources, revealed on June 22 that "Staryy Oskol" was located in the central Mediterranean Sea. According to the RIA Novosti source, the submarine would transit the Turkish Straits in late June and arrive in an unspecified Russian port in early July.

AIS reporting for "Professor Nikolay Muru" - June 22-25, 2016

AIS reporting for Russian Navy rescue tug "Professor Nikolay Muru", which has been supporting Russian Navy ships operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea since March, departed Tartus, Syria, on June 17. The tug made a direct 10- to 11-knot transit to the vicinity of Malta, where it was photographed on June 23. At approximately 11:00pm GMT on June 23, the tug began transiting east and has since maintained an average speed of 7.5 knots. The slower speed suggests the tug is either escorting a slow-moving vessel or towing something.

Ship spotters should provide the answer in the coming days.

Indian Submarine Heading to Russia

"Rolldock Star" semi-submersible ship -- February 2, 2014

(credit: Rolldock)

Last month, an Indian delegation visited Zvezdochka Shipyard in Severodvinsk, Russia. A shipyard spokesman told reporters that the Indian Navy's Kilo-class submarine "INS Sindhukesari" would arrive in Severodvinsk in June 2016. Considering it would take over a month to complete a transfer from India to Severodvinsk, the transfer would have to start in May.

Track of "Rolldock Star" is at traveled between Singapore and India -- April 19-28, 2016

There are only a few companies that both possess heavy-lift vessels and have a history of supporting submarine transfers to/from Russia. The Dutch firm Rolldock, a subsidiary of Roll Group, is one of them. By regularly tracking the company's fleet of semi-submersible ships, it was easy to spot possible candidates.

"Rolldock Star" moves to deep-water area -- May 4, 2016

"Rolldock Star" departed Singapore on April 19 and arrived in Mumbai (Jawaharlal Nehru Port) on April 28. On May 4, the ship departed port and proceeded to an area about one-half nautical mile to the north. Over the next two days, the vessel remained in the deep-water area, where it likely onloaded its cargo. "Rolldock Star" departed the area during the evening hours of May 6 with a reported destination of Severodvinsk (estimated arrival date: June 12).

Track of "Rolldock Star" as it departs Mumbai -- May 6, 2016

Given the earlier statement of the submarine's arrival in Severodvinsk in June and the reported destination of "Rolldock Star", it's pretty clear that the Dutch semi-submersible ship is currently ferrying "INS Sindhukesari" to Russia.

Destination: Severodvinsk!

"Severodvinsk" Launches First Missile as Operational Submarine

"Severodvinsk" launching land-attack cruise missile from Barents Sea -- April 29, 2016
(credit: RF Ministry of Defense)

The Russian Navy's newest nuclear-powered fast attack submarine has launched its first long-range land-attack cruise missile since becoming a fully operational unit in the Northern Fleet earlier this year.

The first report of the missile launch was published by the RF Ministry of Defense at 3:00am (Moscow time) on April 30, indicating the missile launch actually occurred earlier this week. The MOD later released a video purportedly of the missile launch, which occurred from an announced area closure in the Barents Sea. As the area closure did not go into effect until April 29, a day before the missile launch announcement, the missile launch likely occurred on April 29.

ПРИП МУРМАНСК 153/16 КАРТА 10100 БАРЕНЦЕВО МОРЕ И ЧЁШСКАЯ ГУБА
1. СТРЕЛЬБЫ РАКЕТНЫЕ 29 ПО 30 АПР И 04 ПО 06 МАЙ 0700 ДО 1500 ПЛАВАНИЕ ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ТЕРВОДАХ ОПАСНО ИХ ПРЕДЕЛАМИ РАЙОНАХ
А. 69-51.1С 033-54.0В, 69-43.7С 037-53.9В, 69-17.9С 042-59.4В, 68-50.8С 045-00.0В, 68-30.0С 045-40.5В, ДАЛЕЕ ПО БЕРЕГОВОЙ ЛИНИИ ДО 68-39.8С 043-22.0В, 68-53.6С 042-31.3В, 69-17.9С 037-53.9В, 69-30.0С 033-51.6В
Б. 67-45.5С 045-40.0В, 67-18.1С 045-00.5В, ДАЛЕЕ ПО БЕРЕГОВОЙ ЛИНИИ ДО 67-45.5С 045-40.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 061600 МАЙ=
251200 МСК ГС-

Missile launch area closure in Barents Sea -- April 29-30 & May 4-6, 2016

Earlier this month, "Severodvinsk" launched four torpedoes against a group of surface ships that were simulating an enemy amphibious landing group.

The submarine's recent activities are in line with statements made earlier this year that "Severodvinsk" is a fully operational submarine. In January, a naval official stated that the submarine was no longer undergoing operational evaluation. This was reiterated by Navy Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vice Admiral Aleksandr Fedotenkov and Northern Fleet press service chief Captain 1st Rank Vadim Serga in mid-March. In his statement, Serga added that "Severodvinsk" was preparing to begin at-sea training to become a fully combat-certified fleet unit.

This month's torpedo firings and missile launch strongly suggest that is exactly what "Severodvinsk" is doing.

Follow-Up 1: Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

It has become much clearer over the past three weeks why Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" made its mysterious port call in Kronshtadt. And it's bad news for ISIS/ISIL, FSA, or whomever Russian forces are targeting in Syria these days. As one blog reader opined, "Don't you think that stories about its malfunction was just a rumor, and in reality the submarine came for specific items that later can be [launched] from warmer waters?"

As a recap, "Rostov-na-Donu" pulled into Kronshtadt on October 29 - the 14th day of its inter-fleet transit from Polyarnyy to Novorossiysk. Claims by both official and anonymous sources covered everything from "topping off supplies of all types to required norms" to repairing broken equipment. It seems the official sources were correct.

Based on drone video, "Rostov-na-Donu" tied up at this pier in Kronshtadt

While in Kronshtadt, heightened security was put into place, limiting access to the submarine's location. However, a few adventurous photographers and one amateur drone did record enough evidence showing that missiles were handled during the submarine's visit. Given the high level of security, one might conclude that it was more likely that missiles were loaded than offloaded.

Circles indicate cylindrical objects and open torpedo tubes/loading device on "Rostov-na-Donu"

The above two images, taken from a drone flying nearby, show a floating crane ("PK-175") positioned on the opposite side of the pier where "Rostov-na-Donu" had tied up in Kronshtadt. The floating crane, assisted by three harbor tugs, transferred from Admiralty Shipyards to Kronshtadt on October 28 - the day before the submarine's arrival. Multiple long, cylindrical objects are visible on the deck of the floating crane, and the submarine's torpedo tubes are open with a possible weapons loading device attached.

Circles indicate cylindrical objects on deck of floating crane

Clearer images taken on November 4, the day the submarine departed Kronshtadt, show the cylindrical objects were visible on the deck of the floating crane. Also visible on the submarine was the flag of an embarked senior naval officer. Looking back at all the photos taken of the first Kalibr-capable Kilo submarine to transfer to the Black Sea Fleet, "Novorossiysk", it is evident that this flag was never flown at any point during its departure from Polyarnyy, during its port calls in Ceuta, Spain, and Oran, Algeria, or during its arrival in Novorossiysk and subsequent transfer to Sevastopol. The flag appears to have one star, indicating a "commander of a formation" (командир соединения) is on board. The 4th Independent Submarine Brigade, which stood up in December 2014 as the new parent command for the Black Sea Fleet's submarines, qualifies as a "formation" (соединение). Thus, it is possible that the brigade's commander, Captain 1st Rank Magaram Yagishevich Adigyuzelov, or his designated representative may have embarked in Kronshtadt for the submarine's transit.

The RF Ministry of Defense did not report on the submarine's departure until November 5. It did state, however, that "Rostov-na-Donu" would now arrive in Novorossiysk by the end of November. This differs from the MOD's earlier reporting that the submarine would arrive in Novorossiysk in early December. Thus, despite the time it took to divert from its previous transit route (~1,000nm from the North Sea to Kronshtadt + ~1,000nm back) plus the seven days it spent in Kronshtadt, the new arrival time is now one-two weeks sooner than first reported. In order to transfer from Kronshtadt to Novorossiysk by November 30, the submarine would have to travel ~5,250nm in 26 days, which equates to a speed of 8.4 knots - not an unreasonable speed. It also suggests, however, that there is no time provided for any foreign port calls as they would increase the overall speed needed to complete the transit by the end of the month. Of course, the time frame provided for completion of the transit simply could have been misstated.

The Dutch Navy keeping an eye on "Rostov-na-Donu"

Two weeks later, on November 17, Russian business news agency RosBiznesKonsalting erroneously reported that "Rostov-na-Donu" had launched land-attack cruise missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The article was reproduced by some notable media outlets, such as Delovoy Peterburg, Gazeta.ru, Kommersant, and Rosbalt.ru. If this were true, the submarine would have had to travel at an overall speed of nearly 16 knots for 13 straight days direct from Kronshtadt in order to launch missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. However, the submarine was being monitored by Dutch naval ships as it transited south through the English Channel near the Netherlands on November 11. Thus, "Rostov-na-Donu" would have had to travel in excess of 19 knots for six straight days from the North Sea in order to reach the eastern Mediterranean Sea by November 17. Finally, the RF MOD has never reported that the submarine launched land-attack cruise missiles, something it most certainly would have done. Despite the improbability of "Rostov-na-Donu" launching missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea on or before November 17, RBK has neither edited nor retracted its article.

Flight bans and flight route restrictions

Earlier this month, flight bans and flight route restrictions were announced for Russian Navy exercise being held in the eastern Mediterranean Sea:

A1459/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:37 2015

A1460/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1459/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:41 2015

A1499/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:20 2015

A1500/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1499/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:34 2015

A1510/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY
353200N0353200E
341600N0340000E
334410N0343606E
THEN FOLLOWING THE FIR BOUNDARY TO 353200N0353200E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 15:37 2015

A1511/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERRED IN NOTAM LCCC A1510/15, THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78,M/UM978(ALSUS-NIKAS)
W/UW10,L/UL619(VESAR-NIKAS)
B/UB15,L/UL620(ALSUS-BALMA)
R/UR18(VELOX-ALSUS)
R/UR19(LCA-KUKLA)
R/UR655,M/UM601(LCA-BALMA)
P/UP42(DESPO-MERVA)
G/UG2(VELOX-ELIKA)
SFC-FL660. 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 16:34 2015

Flight ban areas defined in A1459/15 and A1499/15 are identical to those previously announced for similar Russian Navy exercises. Flight ban area A1510/15 is of interest as it is not known to have been used before for Russian Navy exercises. And while all of these bans expire on or before November 26, there is no reason to believe they would not be reannounced, if needed.

Of course, it would be easy to draw a direct correlation between the flight bans (those already announced and those that could be announced in the near future) and the unusual "Rostov-na-Donu" story. But...

• Would Moscow really announce to the world the launch location and missile flight path of a future land-attack cruise missile strike?
• Does the geography of the Mediterranean Sea, coupled with large number of international air and maritime traffic routes, necessitate the announcement of flight bans and route restrictions for land-attack cruise missiles strikes?
• Could these flight bans serve to distract potential foreign observers away from the true launch location?

Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

Screenshot of Ilya Kurganov blog posting -- October 29, 2015

Very early this morning, St. Petersburg blogger Ilya Kurganov (citing unnamed "navy officials") reported that Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" had arrived in Kronshtadt for unscheduled repairs of its electrical plant. According to the blogger:

"...it began its scheduled transfer to its home port of Novorossiysk on October 16, 2015, but within literally a few days it was necessary to call for a rescue tug, with which it headed to a location where unscheduled repairs will be performed by technicians from Admiralty Shipyards, where the submarine was built."

Interfax, citing an unknown source in the shipbuilding industry, confirmed that the submarine is in the Baltic Sea, but the source would only say that "it was forced to return to the Baltic for technical reasons." Finally, Admiralty Shipyards denied that any Russian Navy officials had contacted the shipyard to provide any technical assistance to the submarine.

Taking a closer look at the Ilya's blog post, we see:

• The submarine was not in Kronshtadt when the blog posting was published. "Rostov-na-Donu" and the rescue tug, "SB-406", did not arrive in Kronshtadt until 11:50 this morning (local time), nearly 11 hours after the blog posting was published.
• It was towed to Kronshtadt instead of Admiralty Shipyards, which is located less than 20 miles from Kronshtadt. Why would shipyard technicians have to travel to Kronshtadt to repair the submarine when the submarine could be repaired more easily at the shipyard where it was built? Vietnamese Navy Kilo submarine "Da Nang" left the shipyard yesterday, so there is plenty of room to accommodate "Rostov-na-Donu".
• If this happened "within literally a few days" of its October 16 departure from Polyarnyy, why was it not towed back to Polyarnyy vice towing it to Kronshtadt - and, again, not even the shipyard that built it? Why risk any other mechanical failures over the course of another week or so of transit time?

In summary, Ilya's reporting doesn't add up, and it's hard to tell who's to blame: Ilya, his sources, or both.

Minutes before the submarine and tug moored in Kronshtadt, a Ministry of Defense official told Interfax that the purpose of the submarine's visit to Kronshtadt was to take on supplies. That makes little sense as the first Kilo submarine to transfer to the Black Sea this year, "Novorossiysk", was able to make it all the way from Polyarnyy to Ceuta, Spain, before having to take on fresh supplies.

This has all the appearance of a public affairs failure that has been noted before. Earlier this year, the Western Military District press service tried, but failed to cover up an actual emergency on board Steregushchiy-class frigate "Steregushchiy" during at-sea training. And military officials have yet to officially discuss what happened on board Delta IV-class ballistic missile submarine "Bryansk" in July 2015 when a crew member drowned in the submarine's sail.

Impending Ballistic Missile Launch From Sea of Okhotsk

Flights bans for probable SS-N-18 ballistic missile launch -- October 12-17, 2015

Flight bans have been declared for three areas in the Sea of Okhotsk for the period of October 12 through October 17:

P6193/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI:
 1. 475400N 1510600E-480600N 1514000E-475200N 1515800E-473600N 1512100E-475400N 1510600E.
 2. CIRCLE RADIUS 50KM CENTRE 5249N 14617E.
 3. CIRCLE RADIUS 51KM CENTRE 5709N 14033E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0600-1300, 12 OCT 06:00 2015 UNTIL 17 OCT 13:00 2015. CREATED: 08 OCT 08:24 2015

The number and arrangement of the three areas are identical to those used for an SS-N-18 Stingray submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) event on May 8, 2014 [NOTAM P2906/14 (May 8-11, 2014)], during which Delta III-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Podolsk" launched a single SLBM from a submerged location in the Sea of Okhotsk.

"Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets"
(credit: TASS)

The Russian Pacific Fleet currently has two operational Delta III submarines - 36-year-old "Podolsk" and 35-year-old "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets". A third unit, 33-year-old "Ryazan", has been undergoing service life extension work at Zvezda Far East Shipyard since 2011. With the arrival of Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Aleksandr Nevskiy" in Rybachiy on September 30, Moscow can begin thinking about retiring the veteran "Podolsk" and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets". As such, next week's SLBM event may mark the final launch for one of them.

Impending Bulava Missile Launch

Area closure, flight bans, and flight corridor restriction for Bulava missile launch -- September 11-15, 2015

On September 9, RIA Novosti and TASS, citing their separate anonymous sources, reported that Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered submarines would launch Bulava (SS-N-32) ballistic missiles in the October-November time frame. According to RIA Novosti, "Vladimir Monomakh" would launch first, followed by a dual launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh". TASS's source stated that "Vladimir Monomakh" will perform a salvo launch in November, and that no other Bulava launches will occur this year.

It is odd that neither of them mentioned this week's scheduled ballistic missile launch.

Area closures, flight bans, and flight corridor restrictions have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 11 and 15 September. The missile will be launched from the White Sea and impact at the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

HYDROARC 265/15

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 111300Z TO 112000Z, 131000Z TO 132100Z, 141000Z TO 141900Z SEP AND 1000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 12 AND 15 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY 73-05N 051-00E, 72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E, 72-00N 047-20E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 160001Z SEP 15.

G3278/15 - ATS RTE A222 SEGMENT KUMEL-LAGAT CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3279/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
720000N 0472000E-730500N 0510000E-724700N 0514000E-714500N 0504000E-712400N 0492500E.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3282/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
651300N0362700E-653800N0362700E-661200N0371700E-655200N0383500E-651300N0373900E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, 11-15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3283/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
724700N0514000E-723000N0524700E-714500N0504000E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, DAILY 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

P5645/15 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK)-OKLED CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 54/15 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ЗАПРЕТНОМ ПЛАВАНИЯ РАЙОНЕ 65-13.0С 036-27.0В 65-38.0С 036-27.0В 66-12.0С 037-17.0В 65-52.0С 038-35.0В 65-13.0С 037-39.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

НАВАРЕА 200 139/15 КАРТА 11163
ЗАПАДНЕЕ ОСТРОВОВ НОВАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ПЛАВАНИЕ ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ТЕРВОДАХ ОПАСНО ИХ ПРЕДЕЛАМИ РАЙОНЕ 73-05.0С 051-00.0В 72-30.0С 052-47.0В 71-24.0С 049-25.0В 72-00.0С 047-20.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

Reporting from last week indicated "Vladimir Monomakh" had arrived in Severodvinsk in advance of a scheduled Bulava launch. As there is no other submarine known to be currently available in the White Sea to launch a ballistic missile, the most likely scenario is that "Vladimir Monomakh" will launch at least one Bulava. "Vladimir Monomakh" last launched a Bulava in September 2014.

Is it just a coincidence that this missile launch will occur on the eve of the opening of the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin?

Follow-Up 1: Where in the World is "Aleksandr Nevskiy"?

Since "Aleksandr Nevskiy" departed Gadzhiyevo in mid-August for its interfleet transfer, Russia's three main news outlets have all taken a stab at reporting when the submarine will arrive in Rybachiy. Below is a summary of their reports.

Note: In Russia, a calendar month can be broken into three 10-day periods, known as a dekada. Thus, the first dekada equates to the first 10 days of the month, and so on.

Interfax, September 2

• Source: "source familiar with the situation"
• Comment 1: "arrival in Vilyuchinsk is expected in the early part of the third dekada in September" -- This would roughly equate to September 21-24.
• Comment 2: "[source] linked the submarine's interfleet transfer to the actions of a number of Northern Fleet ships currently operating along the Northern Sea Route" -- This seems unlikely, as the Northern Fleet ships, as in previous years, are likely hugging Russia's northern coastline to avoid frequent interaction with ice, while the submarine should be operating under the ice.

 

TASS, September 7

• Source: "fleet headquarters source"
• Comment 1: "departed Gadzhiyevo on August 15" -- That seems to be incorrect based on the previous blog entry showing crew members updating their social media accounts through August 18.
• Comment 2: "expected in [Rybachiy] in the second dekada of the month" -- This would equate to September 11-20.

RIA Novosti, September 7

• Source: "highly placed Pacific Fleet HQ source"
• Comment 1: "will arrive in Kamchatka, as planned, in the third dekada of September" -- This would equate to September 21-30.
• Comment 2: "Vladimir Monomakh" will arrive in Kamchatka either in late 2015 or in 2016 -- This is a strange statement for two reasons. First, under-ice transfers appear to be timed to coincide with the period when the ice edge has receded to its farthest northern point in a given year. Thus, an under-ice transfer later than October seems unreasonable. Second, all previous statements (albeit unofficial) on the transfer of "Vladimir Monomakh" indicated the submarine will transfer in the fall of 2016. That being said, there have been a few instances of submarines transferring between the two fleets via a southern route: Atlantic Ocean > Drake Passage > Pacific Ocean. This route was used in February-March 1966 for the transfer of two nuclear-powered boats, an Echo II and a November. It was also used for the transfer of two Delta III-class ballistic missile submarines in January-April 1979.

As the above shows, all of the sources had incorrect or highly implausible information that suggests the dates they provided are speculative and may or may not be backed up by any substantive knowledge of the transfer. The fact that the Interfax and RIA Novosti sources both stated the submarine will arrive in Rybachiy in the third dekada is probably just a coincidence. And if "Aleksandr Nevskiy" arrives during the second dekada, it doesn't necessarily mean TASS' source actually knew that time frame to be true when he (or she) provided the information to TASS.

When it comes to any media outlet anywhere in the world... beware of anonymous sources, despite any official-sounding job title attributed to them.

Musical Submarine Rescue Ships

"Sayany" submarine rescue ship in Valletta, Malta - September 3, 2015
[credit" Emmanuel L.]

On August 31, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Black Sea Fleet Prut-class submarine rescue ship "EPRON" had departed the Black Sea en route to India for unspecified "international military cooperation" with that country's naval forces. The ship transited the Suez Canal, entered the Red Sea on September 3, and is scheduled to arrive in India in early October. "EPRON" last deployed out of the Black Sea in 2011 to support NATO's Bold Monarch submarine rescue exercise near Spain.

What exactly "EPRON" will do in India and for how long is unknown. With the departure of the Black Sea Fleet's sole fully functional submarine rescue ship, this would appear to indicate no submarine operations will occur in the Black Sea for some time. However, Pacific Fleet Rudnitskiy-class submarine rescue ship "Sayany" is currently in the Mediterranean Sea. It was photographed in Valletta, Malta, on September 3, and there is reason to believe it will head into the Black Sea in the near future.

So, what's really going on?

All of Russia's four fleets have submarine rescue ships in their inventories:

- The Northern and Pacific Fleets each have two Rudnitskiy-class ships equipped with deep-submergence rescue vehicles (DSRV); the Pacific Fleet also has the DSRV-equipped Elbrus-class ship "Alagez". Both fleets also have two DSRVs; however, one of the Northern Fleet's DSRVs is currently undergoing a two-year maintenance cycle at Kanonerskiy Shipyard (St. Petersburg).

- The Baltic Fleet has one DSRV-equipped Kashtan-class ship - SS-750.

- The Black Sea has the "EPRON" and the 100-year-old Kommuna-class ship "Kommuna". While "EPRON" is equipped with a rescue chamber, since 2007 the "Kommuna" has had no equipment capable of bringing stranded submariners to the surface. It is equipped only with small remotely-operated vehicles (ROV) capable of surveying the distressed submarine and providing limited support to rescue operations.

Thus, the Pacific Fleet is the only fleet with two operational DSRVs, and the only fleet capable of deploying it (on board "Sayany") to the Mediterranean Sea. As with the Baltic and Northern Fleets, the Pacific Fleet can continue submarine operations with a single operational DSRV.

"Kommuna" submarine rescue ship with "AS-5" DSRV on board - December 2005

In a July 17 Krasnaya Zvezda article about "Kommuna" was this tell-tale paragraph:

In the future, "Kommuna" will again have rescue work. In the near future, six new diesel-electric submarines will arrive in the Black Sea Fleet, and the safety of their operations needs to be ensured. And so plans for "Kommuna" include receiving a rescue submersible and carrying out rescue ship missions.

"Kommuna" was last equipped with a DSRV (Project 1837-class "AS-5") between 1998 and 2006. In 2007, "AS-5" was transferred to the Baltic Fleet, where it served until being stricken from service last year. The above statement, however, suggests the rescue ship may once again serve as the mothership for a DSRV. And that DSRV may be delivered by "Sayany".

If the Krasnaya Zvezda article is correct in suggesting "Kommuna" will take on the Pacific Fleet DSRV on a permanent basis, that means "Sayany" will return to Vladivostok empty, leaving the Pacific Fleet with only one DSRV. While that may be workable for a short time, it would be impossible to operate submarines were the sole remaining DSRV to be out-of-service, either for routine or unscheduled maintenance, for many months. And while Russian Navy's four newer Project 18551/Priz-class DSRVs can be transported via air, road, and train between fleet areas, that is far from the optimal way of providing submarine rescue support.

Yet, the Pacific Fleet was forced to operate in just this way in 2005-2008 and 2012-2013 when the fleet's two DSRVs took turns undergoing long-overdue repairs and upgrades. And it is under these conditions that the Northern Fleet is currently operating - one operational DSRV, one undergoing upgrades. However, from a geographical perspective, the impact on the Northern Fleet is negligible compared to the Pacific Fleet. The farthest distance between Northern Fleet submarine bases (Kola area and Severodvinsk) is approximately 330 nautical miles. Placing a rescue ship somewhere between those two bases would ensure a DSRV could be on station to support operations near both bases and could arrive at the location of a distressed submarine in less than 10 hours. The Pacific Fleet, on the other hand, has two submarine bases (Vladivostok and Kamchatka Peninsula) that are located nearly 1,200 nautical miles apart. Placing a DSRV-equipped submarine rescue ship at 600 nautical miles from either base means it would not arrive at the location of a downed submarine for nearly 30 hours.

"Igor Belousov" with "AS-40" DSRV on board - May 7, 2015
[credit: Curious]

Enter Russia's newest submarine rescue ship, "Igor Belousov", with the fleet's newest DSRV, Project 18271/Bester 1-class "AS-40". Since leaving Baltiysk in August for Phase 4 of factory sea trials, the "Igor Belousov" crew has been testing the ship's diver chamber and Pantera Plus ROV at design depths in the Atlantic Ocean. After being commissioned, the rescue ship will eventually join the Pacific Fleet, probably in 2016, which means the fleet will once again have two DSRVs in its inventory.

The transfer of the Pacific Fleet DSRV will provide the Black Sea Fleet with a much needed boost in submarine rescue capabilities. With the arrival of the first new Kilo-class submarine in the Black Sea later this month and five more over the next 18 months, the Russian Navy cannot risk supporting its growing undersea arsenal using 1950's technology.

Where in the World is "Aleksandr Nevskiy"?

"Aleksandr Nevskiy" and her crew -- December 2010

On August 27, Russian media outlets ran two competing stories about the transfer of Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Aleksandr Nevskiy" from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet. TASS, citing an unnamed General Staff source, reported that the submarine departed port in mid-August and will arrive "in Kamchatka" [presumably its new homeport of Rybachiy] in the first week of September. Later that day, Interfax, citing its own unnamed shipbuilding industry source, reported that the submarine remains in the Northern Fleet base of Gadzhiyevo and won't depart for the under-ice transfer until mid-September. The Russian Ministry of Defense has made no statement to support or refute either claim.

So, who's right? Since the Interfax article was aimed at refuting the TASS article, we'll start with the TASS article.

• The submarine departed in mid-August. This is true if you believe in coincidences. A survey of the submarine's crew members' social media accounts shows many of them were active up until 18 August, but none of them have been active since. And with comments like "I'll be gone until October" and "I'm planning to head to sea (with several bags of candy bars, cookies, and other snacks)," one might conclude that the submarine did, in fact, depart port on August 18 or a few days later.


• The submarine will arrive in Rybachiy during the first week of September. The distance from Gadzhiyevo to Rybachiy is approximately 4,000 nautical miles. In order to travel that distance in 21 days (using August 18 as the departure date and September 7 as the arrival date), the submarine would have to travel 190.5 nautical miles per day at an average speed of ~7.9 knots. Of the eight Delta I/III SSBN under-ice transfers conducted between 1980 and 2008, four completed the transit in 24-32 days. The other four conducted patrols after transferring to the Pacific Fleet area (but before arriving in Rybachiy), extending the total length of their transfers  to 78-84 days. If TASS's source is correct, then "Aleksandr Nevskiy" will make a direct transit and may even break the SSBN transfer record.

As for the Interfax report, all that can be said is that the source's claims are in direct contradiction to those of the TASS source. Moreover, it should be noted that all eight Delta I/III SSBN transfers mentioned above began in mid- to late-August -- never in September.

Thus, based on previous SSBN transfers and on clues provided by the submarine's own crew, it appears more likely that "Aleksandr Nevskiy" commenced its under-ice transit in mid-August and is no longer in Gadzhiyevo. If true, then Interfax's source is clearly uninformed, or someone may be intentionally trying to confuse those who read the TASS story.

The below image depicts the most recent ice-edge reporting and the locations of Russian icebreakers and ice-capable research vessels in the Arctic region. While they may not be tasked with directly supporting the under-ice transfer, they could be called upon to respond in the event of an emergency involving the submarine.

Ice-edge reporting and locations of select vessels in the Arctic region -- August 30, 2015

"Bryansk" Officer Dies in Submarine's Sail

"Bryansk" surfaces through the ice -- August 21, 2007

One week ago, July 25 - the day before Russian Navy Day, a 45-year-old warrant officer (Vitaliy Shimanskiy) died on board Delta IV-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Bryansk". Investigators remain tight-lipped while they continue questioning crew members, as well as relatives and friends of the officer. The only details to emerge so far are that he was found dead in the submarine sail after the submarine surfaced and that he was tied to something inside the sail.

The first clue that something had gone wrong came in the form of an urgent plea via social media for Shimanskiy's contact information during the early afternoon hours on July 25. And then silence... until Komsomolskaya Pravda published the first article about the incident two days after Navy Day. The item quickly spread through social media and was republished by regional and national media outlets.

While there are few other clues about Shimanskiy (he was a member of the submarine's Second Crew), a quick internet search revealed that a Senior Warrant Officer Vitaliy Vitoldovich Shimanskiy had appealed to the Gadzhiyevo Garrison Military Court in February 2014 to force defense officials to pay him money owed following decrees by the Western Military District that had increased his salary. The description of Shimanskiy's job title matches that of a technician working on a nuclear-powered submarine.

Many questioned why Shimanskiy remained in the sail as the submarine was submerging (no one knew he was missing? possible suicide?) and why he was tied to the sail (so his body would be found?). Several current and former servicemen from the submarine's home port of Gadzhiyevo did admit that there was at least one other similar situation, although the submariner(s) in that instance survived.

Warrant Officer Shimanskiy is survived by his wife and daughter. A memorial service was held on July 30; the burial will take place in St. Petersburg.

All Aboard the Bulava Production Retooling Train!

Between 2013 and 2015, at least a dozen Russian enterprises have announced retooling plans connected with the production and assembly of 3K-30 Bulava [SS-N-32] missile components. The names of known companies and retooling costs are listed below:

Name of Enterprise	Retooling Costs
Central Scientific Research Institute of Automatics and Hydraulics	RUB 14,000,000
Elektron Central Scientific Research Institute	RUB 4,918,000
Geofizika-Kosmos Scientific Production Enterprise	not specified
Iskra Factory	RUB 3,850,000
Lebedev Scientific Research Institute of Synthetic Rubber	RUB 52,680,500
Moscow Institute of Thermal Technologies	RUB 76,897,249
Pulsar State Factory	RUB 6,870,000
Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry	RUB 3,100,000
Scientific Research Institute of Physical Measurements	RUB 197,980
Scientific Research Institute of Semiconductor Devices	RUB 3,646,180
Soyuz Federal Center for Dual-Purpose Technologies	RUB 199,871
Votkinsk Factory	RUB 3,943,971
Zvezda Factory	RUB 30,628,260

The above costs (totaling RUB 200,932,011) cover everything from design documentation for retooling of fabrication facilities to the delivery of  specific machinery required in the production of missile parts.

Follow-Up 1: Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Since my July 12 blog post, Amur Shipyard has still been unable to secure contractors to tow the Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" all the way from the shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen. And it now seems impossible that the frigate will begin its transfer on August 5, as previously scheduled.

"Aldar Tsydenzhapov" keel authentication plaque -- July 22, 2015
(credit: Amur Shipyard)

On July 22, a new Steregushchiy-class frigate ("Aldar Tsydenzhapov") was laid down at Amur Shipyard. The very next day, the shipyard's contract bid review committee selected Khabarovsk-based Amur Shipping Company as the winner of the contract covering the Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard portion of the transfer. On the same day, however, the committee rejected the only two bids that had been submitted for the contract covering the longer Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18 portion of the transfer. One company, Far East Maritime Freight, may have submitted a bid that exceeded the contract's maximum costs. The bid by the second company, Shore of Good Fortune, apparently did not have tugs that met the minimum tow capacity specified in the contract.


Amur Shipyard's emergence from bankruptcy has had its hiccups. Just this week it was announced that the Khabarovsk Heating Company shut off steam and heat supplies to the shipyard, which owes the company RUB 27.5 million. And the small fire that broke out today could have been worse.

As I stated earlier, if the "Sovershennyy" transfer doesn't begin soon, the transfer of the overhauled Kilo-class submarine "Komsomolsk-na-Amure" (formerly "B-187") from the shipyard to Bolshoy Kamen will be in jeopardy of not happening this year.

Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Steregushchiy frigate "Sovershennyy" -- May 22, 2015

A year after emerging from bankruptcy, Amur Shipyard finds itself in a bind partly due to a miscalculation of contract costs. And if the contracts aren't signed soon, the delivery of a repaired Kilo-class diesel submarine could be delayed until 2016.

In January 2006, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed a contract (253/05/2/K/0038-06) with Amur Shipyard for the construction of Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy". The ship was laid down on June 30 the same year. The two parties signed a supplementary agreement (704/27/2/ONK/DN6/0105-10) in February 2010, four years after the original contract was signed. In November 2011, a second supplementary agreement (Z/1/1/0635/D10-11-DGOZ) was signed to continue the contract after the shipyard was declared bankrupt. In February 2014, following a visit by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, a new contract (Z/1/1/0047/D17-14-DGOZ) was signed to establish new costs for the construction of both "Sovershennyy" and "Gromkiy" (a second Steregushchiy frigate laid down in February 2012). The new contract was signed four months before Amur Shipyard officially emerged from bankruptcy. On May 22, 2015 - nine years after being laid down, "Sovershennyy" was finally rolled out.

On May 26, Amur Shipyard approved a purchase package (RUB 81,900,000) for towing "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" from Amur Shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Amur Shipyard. The towing operation was scheduled to begin no later than August 19 and involve two 600hp (or greater) tugs and one 1,800hp (or greater) tug. A month later, however, the package was withdrawn in order to modify the technical specifications of the work package.

Last week, Amur Shipyard approved two new purchase packages for the operation. The first package (RUB 49,600,000) only covers the tow route from the shipyard to Buoy 18 on the Amur Estuary and (after returning from Bolshoy Kamen) back to the shipyard. The second package (RUB 88,560,000) covers the route from Buoy 18 to Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Buoy 18. The tug requirements and start dates were also modified for both routes. Comparisons of the 2014 and 2015 contract packages are shown below.

Amount	Route	Start	Towing Requirements
RUB 25,000,000	Buoy 18 >  Amur Shipyard	July 5, 2014	1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)
RUB 81,900,000	Amur Shipyard > Bolshoy Kamen >  Amur Shipyard	August 19, 2015	1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)
RUB 49,600,000	Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard	August 5, 2015	2 tugs (1,800hp)
RUB 88,560,000	Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18	August 10, 2015	1 tug (7,800hp) +         1 tug (3,000hp)

Comparing the cost differences between the May package and the July packages indicates the original cost calculations were off by RUB 56,260,000. Amur Shipyard signed a similar contract (RUB 25,000,000) in 2014 for towing "Zeya" one way between Buoy 18 and the shipyard. If you double the amount, it matches nicely with the RUB 49,600,000 in the July 2015 purchase package that includes two-way towing services.

Miscalculations aside, it's amazing that Amur Shipyard has not yet signed towing service contracts for this transfer. The new contracts specify that the towing operation should commence no later than August 5 and that "Zeya" should be returned to the shipyard no later than September 1. 
The dates are important because Amur Shipyard also plans to roll-out Kilo-class diesel submarine "B-187" and transfer it to Bolshoy Kamen this year. The transfer has to be completed before Amur River becomes unnavigable due to the onset of ice conditions in late October. Any delay in transferring "Sovershennyy" could jeopardize the transfer of "B-187" this year.

Cruise Missiles Launched in Sea of Okhotsk

Area closures (red), flight ban (yellow), and flight route restrictions (green) for anti-ship cruise missile launches

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, two naval anti-ship cruise missiles were launched from the Sea of Okhotsk on July 1. At least one of them overflew the Kamchatka Peninsula to strike a target east of the peninsula.

Area closures, a flight ban, and flight route restrictions were declared over the affected areas for June 29 through July 2:

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 78/15 CHART 61025
SEA OF OKHOTSK
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 58-39-12N 155-39-06E 59-12-12N 156-10-00E 58-40-00N 159-25-12E
SHORE 57-52-48S 157-34-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 79/15 CHART 60103
BERING SEA
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 54-42-12N 165-34-12E 56-06-18N 162-08-00E SHORE
58-13-30N 162-04-12E 57-16-18N 167-38-12E 55-38-00N 167-45-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

P4325/15 NOTAMN
Q) UHPP/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/330/5620N16440E115
A) UHPP B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORDINATES:
 575700N 1634036E-571618N 1673812E-553800N 1674548E-
 544212N 1653412E-554412N 1630430E-575700N 1634036E.
F) SFC  G) FL330

P4324/15 NOTAMN
Q) UUXX/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/330/5746N16321E320
A) UHPP UHMM B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
 B237 DIVIN - AMETO,
 B240 TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED,
 B241 BERUD - GITRU,
 B242 DIPNA - NIKOLSKOYE NDB (NK),
 B244 APTIK - RITAR,
 B327 BAMOK - IRKAN,
 B484 DIVIN - MUROL,
 B804 BALUB - OSMOR,
 B962 RAMKA - OTLIM,
 G583 NILAR - IRKAN.
F) SFC  G) FL330

According to the first report, an SS-N-19 Shipwreck anti-ship cruise missile was fired by a simulated enemy nuclear-powered submarine [the report did not indicate which Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine - "Omsk", "Tomsk", or "Tver" - played this role]. MIG-31 Foxhound fighters were scrambled "at supersonic speeds" to the "lower levels of the stratosphere" to search for, intercept, and shoot down the missile. The fighters were aided by an A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The blue circle indicates a 300nm range for an SS-N-12 launched at the far western edge of the Sea of Okhotsk area closure

The MOD's second report indicated that Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" launched an SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missile "at maximum range" against a sea target. According to a post-launch damage assessment, the sea target was "successfully damaged." Given that the maximum operational range of the SS-N-12 is 300 nautical miles, the only way this would be true is if the missile flew over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Considering the layout and geometry of the area closures and flight ban, the missile would have had to travel southeasterly from the Sea of Okhotsk.

The events, which are most likely part of the ongoing "exercise" that began in early June, occurred on the eve of the Pacific Fleet Submarine Forces' 77th anniversary, which was celebrated today.

Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base

Location of Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base

Below are some photos taken this year of the Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base, which was established to support the six Kilo submarines built by Russia between 2010 and 2016.

View from HQ building towards barracks, club, and sports center

View from HQ building towards administrative buildings and barracks

View from HQ building towards club and training center

HQ building

Submarine piers

Floating dry dock

Parade grounds

Barracks

Below are snapshots of Google Earth showing the timeline of construction of the new submarine base.

August 24, 2009

June 27, 2011

July 13, 2012

January 10, 2013

March 25, 2013

March 2, 2014