Impending Bulava Missile Launch

Area closure, flight bans, and flight corridor restriction for Bulava missile launch -- September 11-15, 2015

On September 9, RIA Novosti and TASS, citing their separate anonymous sources, reported that Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered submarines would launch Bulava (SS-N-32) ballistic missiles in the October-November time frame. According to RIA Novosti, "Vladimir Monomakh" would launch first, followed by a dual launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh". TASS's source stated that "Vladimir Monomakh" will perform a salvo launch in November, and that no other Bulava launches will occur this year.

It is odd that neither of them mentioned this week's scheduled ballistic missile launch.

Area closures, flight bans, and flight corridor restrictions have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 11 and 15 September. The missile will be launched from the White Sea and impact at the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

HYDROARC 265/15

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 111300Z TO 112000Z, 131000Z TO 132100Z, 141000Z TO 141900Z SEP AND 1000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 12 AND 15 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY 73-05N 051-00E, 72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E, 72-00N 047-20E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 160001Z SEP 15.

G3278/15 - ATS RTE A222 SEGMENT KUMEL-LAGAT CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3279/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
720000N 0472000E-730500N 0510000E-724700N 0514000E-714500N 0504000E-712400N 0492500E.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3282/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
651300N0362700E-653800N0362700E-661200N0371700E-655200N0383500E-651300N0373900E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, 11-15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3283/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
724700N0514000E-723000N0524700E-714500N0504000E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, DAILY 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

P5645/15 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK)-OKLED CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 54/15 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ЗАПРЕТНОМ ПЛАВАНИЯ РАЙОНЕ 65-13.0С 036-27.0В 65-38.0С 036-27.0В 66-12.0С 037-17.0В 65-52.0С 038-35.0В 65-13.0С 037-39.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

НАВАРЕА 200 139/15 КАРТА 11163
ЗАПАДНЕЕ ОСТРОВОВ НОВАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ПЛАВАНИЕ ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ТЕРВОДАХ ОПАСНО ИХ ПРЕДЕЛАМИ РАЙОНЕ 73-05.0С 051-00.0В 72-30.0С 052-47.0В 71-24.0С 049-25.0В 72-00.0С 047-20.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

Reporting from last week indicated "Vladimir Monomakh" had arrived in Severodvinsk in advance of a scheduled Bulava launch. As there is no other submarine known to be currently available in the White Sea to launch a ballistic missile, the most likely scenario is that "Vladimir Monomakh" will launch at least one Bulava. "Vladimir Monomakh" last launched a Bulava in September 2014.

Is it just a coincidence that this missile launch will occur on the eve of the opening of the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin?

New SSBNs Will Not Transfer to Pacific Fleet in 2014

Dolgorukiy SSBN "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and crew - December 2010 (Photo courtesy of SevMash)

Despite multiple claims of the transfer of one or more Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines to the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet this year, there are serious issues preventing this from happening.

"Aleksandr Nevskiy"
The submarine was accepted into the Navy on December 23, 2013, and it arrived at its new homeport of Gadzhiyevo a week later. The day after its arrival, SevMash (which builds the Dolgorukiy SSBN) reported plans to repair a "damaged shaft" on the submarine sometime in 2014. The estimated repair cost was stated at just under RUB 1.8 million, considerably less than a new shaft. The scope of damage is not known, but it appears it was damaged sometime during the transfer from Severodvinsk to Gadzhiyevo. If it was known that the shaft was damaged before leaving the White Sea, the submarine would have returned to SevMash.

To date there has been no mention of the shaft being repaired. More importantly, there has been no reporting of "Aleksandr Nevskiy" conducting even one day of underway training since arriving at Gadzhiyevo. All news articles mentioning the submarine this year have focused on speculation of an inter-fleet transfer or possible SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM launches.

"Aleksandr Nevskiy" Crew 1, until recently commanded by Captain 1st Rank Vasiliy Tankovid, underwent submarine training at the 270th Training Center (Sosnovyy Bor) in January-April 2014. Following a brief vacation period, Tankovid apparently was replaced by Captain 2nd Rank Aleksandr Nadezhdin, who was the commanding officer of "Vladimir Monomakh". Reporting this year continues to show Nadezhdin on board "Vladimir Monomakh", which could suggest he will not transfer to "Aleksandr Nevskiy" until its repairs are completed.

The window for conducting an under-ice inter-fleet transfer is quickly closing. A review of prior under-ice transfers shows August-September as the optimal period for such an operation. Before such an operation can be undertaken, however, you need to have a fully functional submarine and a highly trained crew, neither of which appears to exist today.

Finally, an anonymous "source in the Navy Main Staff" told ITAR-TASS in late March that, in fact, "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh" would conduct under-ice transfers to the Pacific Fleet in the fall of 2015.

Base infrastructure
Waterfront infrastructure upgrades at Rybachiy Submarine base (Russian Far East - Kamchatka Peninsula) to support Dolgorukiy SSBN basing have been underway for at least two years. In 2013, construction of a new weapons handling pier at Mys Kazak (near Rybachiy Submarine Base) was underway. Contracts related to the pier covered the delivery of Japanese-manufactured sheet piling, 5,000 cubic meters of concrete, and multiple electrical connections to the local power grid, to name a few.

The infrastructure upgrades have been plagued by at least two significant worker accidents. On October 28, 2013, a 28-year-old bulldozer operator from the Monolit construction company was killed when 50 tons of dry cement fell on a shed where he was taking a break. And the source of that cement, which is being used for the Rybachiy Submarine Base infrastructure upgrades, may be imported through shady dealings (business as usual in the Far East) via ITA, according to a Kamchatka local newspaper.

On February 11, 2014, a sling operator was seriously injured after the sling of a wheeled crane broke during the removal of sheet piling. The accident occurred 22 meters from the end of a new deep-water pier under construction at the 3002nd Missile Handling Facility (Mys Kazak).

Complicating the situation was a court case in July of this year in which Mikhail Lunyakov (Chief of Special Construction-Engineering - Federal Special Construction Agency (SpetsStroy)) received an administrative fine of RUB 20,000 by the 289th State Architecture and Construction Oversight Office (headed by Vadim Lapushkin) for failing to receive permission before beginning construction work related to Pier 1 of the missile handling facility. It's never a good thing when government agencies sue each other.

Despite these minor setbacks, SpetsStroy continues to report progress in the infrastructure upgrade project. In June 2014, the agency claimed construction of the "pier zone" was on schedule. In July, SpetsStroy reported renovation of a 400psi high-pressure air compressor station and a personal rescue equipment inspection station also were on schedule.

In late August, General Surovikin, head of the Eastern Military District, stated "Aleksandr Nevskiy" should transfer to the Pacific Fleet by the end of 2014. But reporting during Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Viktor Chirkov's visit to the submarine base in early September is strikingly different. Instead of the submarine arriving this year, defense ministry reporters stated Dolgorukiy SSBNs would join the Pacific Fleet "in the future."

So, regardless of claims you have already heard and others you may hear later this year, no Dolgorukiy SSBN will be transferring to the Pacific Fleet in 2014.

“Vladimir Monomakh” to Launch Bulava SLBM This Week

SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM flight ban in White Sea and area closure near Novaya Zemlya -- September 10-14, 2014
(Map courtesy of Google Maps)

An area closure and several flight bans have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 10 and 14 September.

Area closure
HYDROARC 200/14

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0100Z TO 1700Z DAILY
10 THRU 14 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
72-00N 047-20E, 73-05N 051-00E,
72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 141800Z SEP 14.

Flight bans
G1331/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
A222 KUMEL - SOTIS,
A333 RILOM - DIRUG,
G375 KUGON - DIRUG. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:05 2014

G1332/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
7200N 04720E-7305N 05100E-7230N 05247E-
7124N 04925E-7200N 04720E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:18 2014

G1338/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
660600N 0385500E-651000N 0373000E-651200N 0364900E-
651200N 0364700E-651200N 0363700E-653700N 0362600E-
661200N 0371900E-660400N 0374700E-660300N 0383800E-
660600N 0385500E. SFC - FL050, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 15:43 2014

P6142/14 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED CLSD. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0100-1700,
10 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 14 SEP 17:00 2014.
CREATED: 06 SEP 09:05 2014

The area closure, which is adjacent to Novaya Zemlya, uses the same exact coordinates of an area closure declared for an SS-N-32 Bulava SLBM launch by Dolgorukiy-class SSBN “Aleksandr Nevskiy” on September 6, 2013. That missile failed in flight due to production quality control issues, but the launch itself was a success for the submarine and led to the completion of state testing and acceptance of the submarine in December 2013. As happened with last year’s launch, if the launch team aboard “Vladimir Monomakh” can successfully push the launch data to the missile and eject the missile out of its missile tube, the launch will be considered a success for the submarine. If the missile actually reaches the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, even better…

This week’s SS-N-32 Bulava launch by “Vladimir Monomakh” is part of the submarine’s state testing, which began back in July 2014. A month earlier, Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yuriy Borisov announced that the submarine would launch a Bulava SLBM in September. The submarine most recently completed a two-week at-sea period as part of state testing that focused on assessing the submarine’s acoustic parameters. If all goes well, “Vladimir Monomkah” could be turned over in December (December 10?).