Another "Surprise" Inspection

At approximately 5pm (MSK) on July 12, President Putin directed defense minister Sergey Shoygu to order a surprise inspection of the Eastern Military District to begin at 1am (MSK) the next day. In fact, the inspection will involve forces in both the Eastern and Central Military Districts, as well as Long Range Aviation and Military Transport Aviation assets. The numbers of personnel and equipment to be involved in the exercise (as of July 14) include:

• 160,000+ personnel
• 1,000+ tanks and armored vehicles
• 130+ fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters
• 70+ combatant ships and auxiliary vessels

The aircraft mentioned to date (as of July 14) include:

• IL-20 Coot A
• IL-38 May
• IL-76 Candid
• SU-27SM Flanker
• TU-95MS Bear H
• TU-142 Bear F

The ships and auxiliary vessels mentioned to date (as of July 15) include:

• Alligator LST Nikolay Vilkov
• Dubna AO Irkut
• Finik AGS GS-397
• Goryn ARS SB-522
• Grisha V FFL Metel
• Grisha V FFL MPK-221
• Grisha V Ust-Ilimsk
• Nanuchka III PGG Iney
• Nanuchka III PGG Razliv
• Ob AH Irtysh
• Ropucha I LST Oslyabya
• Slava CG Varyag
• Sonya MSC BT-215
• Sonya MSC BT-245
• Sorum ATA MB-99
• Sovremennyj DDG Bystryy
• Tarantul III PGG R-11
• Tarantul III PGG R-14
• Tarantul III PGG R-18
• Tarantul III PGG R-19
• Tarantul III PGG R-20
• Tarantul III PGG R-79
• Udaloj I DD Admiral Vinogradov
• Udaloj I DD Marshal Shaposhnikov
• Yug AGOR Vitse-Admiral Vorontsov

Part of the RF Navy's Pacific Fleet surface fleet is currently tasked with shuttling weapons in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the following units are not available to participate in the exercise:

• Baklazhan ARS Fotiy Krylov
• Dubna AO Pechenga
• Ropucha I LST Admiral Nevelskoy
• Ropucha II LST Peresvet
• Udaloy I DD Admiral Panteleyev

Was this really a surprise? How could it be when the Russian ships were spotted near the La Perouse Strait on July 13. And when Khabarovsk residents noticed armored vehicles being loaded onto trains two days before the announcement? Of note, the PRC Navy ships that had departed Vladivostok on July 12 after participating in the joint China-Russia exercise Naval Cooperation-2013 followed the Russians through the La Perouse Strait. Very odd... It will be interesting to see what role, if any, the PRC Navy ships played in this exercise scenario.

I almost forgot to mention two IL-20 Coot A intelligence aircraft flights on July 12 and July 14. Further indication (to me, at least) that this was no "surprise" inspection.

Trick-or-Treat: Russian Sub Crew Casts Early Vote in U.S. Presidential Election

Sierra II nuclear-powered submarine (source: oosif.ru)

Bill Gertz, who isn't shy about his pro-Republican tendencies, decided to publish a news piece about a Russian nuclear-powered submarine operating near the U.S. east coast -- on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.  While the U.S. Navy's Chief of Naval Operations refuted Gertz's earlier claims of an Akula-class submarine operating in the Gulf of Mexico, no named military official has yet weighed in on the latest claim of a Sierra II-class nuclear-powered submarine operating along U.S. shores.

Had Gertz done just a little research, he could have found a Russian Navy intelligence collection ship (AGI) moored in Havana, Cuba, on September 23 -- possibly the same ship mentioned in his recent piece.  He could have found chatter suggesting a Russian Navy rescue tug recently visited Jacksonville, Florida -- not far from where Gertz claims the Russian submarine was operating.  And he could have cited official Russian military reporting that indicated a Russian Navy ship (or ships) had visited Jacksonville as early as October, thus providing some level of corroboration of the aforementioned chatter.  Perhaps Gertz did not notice that a Royal Navy SSBN recently launched a Trident II D5 ballistic missile from somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, not far from the United States, and very close to Kings Bay.  Wouldn't a British boomer be of some import to a prowling Russian submarine given that a British SSBN likely would be patrolling in waters closer to Russia than a U.S. SSBN?  These juicy tidbits could have added some real substance to his story, regardless of its veracity. But instead of doing any heavy lifting, he decided to cite anonymous sources and forgo any level of research, thus attesting to his true intent -- to generate a scandal in hopes of swaying voters. 

Washington Free Beacon looking for someone with spell-checking (and research) skills

Now that the article is growing legs, the details of the story are beginning to mutate.  Gertz's misspelling of Sierra as Seirra was replicated twice by the British tabloid Daily Mail, which also demonstrated its inability to copy-paste details from Gertz's article into its own story.  Instead of the Russian ship visiting Jacksonville, Daily Mail actually reported the U.S. granted the Russian submarine permission to enter Jacksonville during Hurricane Sandy.

Daily Mail looking for someone who can spell-check and translate from English into English

Let's see if the story gets its due respect and is buried under today's sunrise-to-sunset election coverage.  Perhaps a certain Republican ex-governor can look out her window and see if there are any other Russian submarines lurking near the United States.

UPDATE 2: The Curious Case of Alaed

A couple days after my previous update, the Alaed story grew new wings.  First, the Russian MOD informed the world that Northern Fleet Udaloy II-class destroyer Admiral Chabanenko, three landing ships and two auxiliary vessels had departed port bound for the Atlantic Ocean, where they will be met by Baltic Fleet Neustrashimyy-class frigate Yaroslav Mudryy and a tanker... Sound familiar?

While Rosoboroneksport has officially denied any of the MI-25 helicopters are being transported to Syria by the landing ships, it did not deny reporting that other cargo (munitions, missiles, and the like) is, in fact, being transported to Syria by means of the Northern Fleet landing ships.

And, so, Alaed continues its southerly transit of the Norwegian Sea en route to the Baltic Sea.  The vessel, which was last located near 69-39N 014-24E (heading 228 degrees, speed 13.3 knots) at 1017 GMT on July 12, is reportedly heading for Baltiysk.  It remains to be seen whether the helicopters will be offloaded there or in St. Petersburg.

UPDATE 1: The Curious Case of Alaed

Not much news has been forthcoming regarding the status of Alaed since it arrived in Murmansk last month. Over the past week, however, internet chatter seemed to indicate that Moscow has found a work-around for shipping the weapons and military hardware to Syria using Russian Navy ships.

Laying out all of the internet chatter, it appears that three Northern Fleet landing ships, accompanied by Udaloy II-class destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and a few auxiliary vessels, will depart Severomorsk soon for the Mediterranean Sea and then the Black Sea for participation in the operational-strategic command-staff exercise Kavkaz-2012, which will be held in September.  The Baltic Fleet's Neustrashimyy-class frigates Neustrashimyy and Yaroslav Mudryy, as well as Uda-class oiler Lena, will rendezvous with the Northern Fleet task group  in the Atlantic Ocean as it heads for the Mediterranean Sea (and possibly to the Black Sea).

But the most interesting part of the story is how this relates to Alaed.  According to one source, one or more of the Northern Fleet landing ships will be carrying at least a portion of Alaed's "contraband" to Syria, presumably along the way to the Black Sea.  Indeed, a crewmember of one of the Northern Fleet's landing ships recently confirmed his ship would be heading to Syria soon.  If this scenario plays out as it appears, then there is very little the EU or NATO will be able to do to stop the shipment from reaching Syria.

The Curious Case of Alaed

Russia is now playing "hide the weapons" with the rest of the world.  Moscow hired FEMCO, which leased the Netherlands/Antilles-flagged merchant vessel Alaed, to transport weapons (to include MI-25 helicopters and munitions) to Syria:

• June 5: Alaed arrives in St. Petersburg
• June 8:  Alaed departs St. Petersburg
• June 10: Alaed arrives in Baltiysk (near Kaliningrad, where the MI-25 helicopters are believed to have undergone repairs)
• June 12: Alaed departs Baltiysk, heading west towards the Atlantic Ocean; U.S. Secretary of State Clinton announces that Russia is shipping attack helicopters to Syria
• June 15: London-based insurer Standard P&I Club is informed that Alaed, which the company has insured, may be carrying attack helicopters and munitions to Syria
• June 18: At 0137 GMT, Alaed was at 59-17N 006-18W, steaming at 12.5 knots on a course of 229 degrees; FEMCO announces on its website that Copenhagen-based United Nordic Shipping (UNS) has canceled a contract with FEMCO for commercial management of Alaed after UNS learns of Alaed's military cargo

So, what's next for Alaed? Continue its transit to Syria without insurance (making it difficult to make port calls) or a commercial manager? Attempt a name/flag change at sea? Return to Russia, and let Moscow try another route?

UPDATE -- June 23: Moscow has decided to send Alaed to Murmansk to be reflagged (and renamed?) before continuing to Syria. ALAED was last near 71-46N 028-18E at 1621 GMT on June 22, steaming on course 125 degrees at a speed of 13.9 knots.

UPDATE -- June 24: FEMCO announces on its website that Alaed arrived in Murmansk at 0400 GMT (0800 local) on June 24.  In its release, FEMCO confirms that the vessel will be reflagged as Russian before continuing its journey.  The company also indirectly blames foreign intelligence services for the predicament without denying the fact that it was carrying weapons (missiles, helicopters, or whatever) to Syria.

UPDATE: Smetlivyy - Russia's "Clever" Destroyer

Update to

As I suggested in my previous post, the Russian Navy may have decided to implement a "constant presence" near the Syrian coastline.  In an April 13 news article, RIA Novosti cited a "highly-placed MOD representative," who stated:

"A decision has been made regarding the constant presence of Russian Navy ships near the Syrian coast. Another Black Sea Fleet ship will arrive in May to replace Smetlivyy... This could be the escort ship Pytlivyy or a large landing ship. A group of Black Sea Fleet ships and vessels could also be sent to this area."

A couple linguistic items to note. First, the term "constant" (постоянный) does not denote a continuous, back-to-back deployment of forces, but rather a near-continuous presence. "Constant" is one step above "periodic," but one step below "continuous." Thus, there could be days or weeks when there are no naval combatants operating near the Syrian coast. And secondly, if the unnamed defense official used the term "ship" (корабль) correctly, he meant naval combatant vice the term reserved for non-combatant auxiliary vessels (судно). Thus, the presence of an auxiliary vessel in Tartus does not qualify as a "constant presence" of "ships" near the Syria coast. Western reporters will inevitably get this wrong.

According to earlier internet chatter, the Black Sea Fleet's Krivak I-class frigate Pytlivyy was supposed to relieve Kashin-class destroyer Smetlivyy off the coast of Syria next month. Fleet officials, however, apparently have decided the frigate requires dock repairs after it experienced some technical issues while chasing the high-speed, wave-piercing catamaran HSV-2 Swift (chartered by the U.S. Military Sealift Command) across the Black Sea during its recent operations there.

Thus, in order to maintain a "constant" presence off the Syrian Coast, the deployment of Kashin-class destroyer Smetlivyy could be extended until a suitable Black Sea Fleet replacement is identified. Internet chatter in February suggested Ropucha I-class landing ship Azov was preparing to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea. Alternatively, Northern Fleet Udaloy I-class destroyer Vitse-Admiral Kulakov, which departed Severomorsk on April 6 en route to a Horn of Africa counter-piracy patrol, could be redirected to replace (temporarily) Smetlivyy. If the latter option is chosen, it would result in an ever larger gap in the Russian Navy's counter-piracy operations. Pacific Fleet Udaloy I-class destroyer Admiral Tributs concluded Russia's last counter-piracy patrol in late-March.

On a related note, Chilikin-class replenishment oiler Ivan Bubnov (and possibly a tug) departed Sevastopol on April 14 en route to the Mediterranean Sea to rendezvous with Vitse-Admiral Kulakov.

Smetlivyy - Russia's "Clever" Destroyer

When the Russian Navy’s last remaining Kashin-class destroyer, Smetlivyy, departs Sevastopol on April 1, how will military officials characterize the purpose of the ship’s 45-day deployment?  Combat training, of course.  But what will the true purpose be?

Timeline
- Early-January:  Russian Northern Fleet combatant ships conduct two-day port call in Tartus, Syria, in early-January.  Ships conduct a typical working port call:  moor, take on supplies, leave.  Nothing more, nothing less.  But neither the Russian nor Syrian press machines could forgo mentioning the tour given to high-level Syrian officials aboard the Russian Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza N.G. Kuznetsov.  Moscow downplayed the visit, while Damascus proclaimed the visit was a sign of deep military cooperation between the two nations and support for the al-Assad regime.

- Early-February:  Internet chatter indicates the Russian Black Sea Fleet is preparing to send Ropucha II-class landing ship Azov to Syria, possibly to evacuate non-combatants from the crisis-plagued nation.  The ship never departed the Black Sea and, instead, has been involved in annual certifications, to include taking part in a command-post exercise this past week.

- Mid-February:  Internet chatter indicates Smetlivyy is preparing to deploy to the Mediterranean.

- Early-March:  Internet chatter indicates some Black Sea Fleet naval infantry personnel will depart in mid-March to participate in two month-long counter-terrorism training in Italy.  The personnel will return to Russia aboard Smetlivyy.  Later, the training in Italy later is postponed or canceled.

- Mid-March:  Internet chatter indicates Smetlivyy begins weapons and stores onloads on/about March 16 in preparation for subsequent at-sea certifications and deployment.  Smetlivyy departs Sevastopol on March 19 en route to Novorossiysk to complete its annual combat certifications.

- Late-March:  Internet chatter indicates Smetlivyy will depart Sevastopol on April 1 for its nearly two-month deployment.

So, What’s Up?
Were Moscow truly concerned about openly supporting the Syrian regime, one would expect much more military cooperation, to include a continuous or near-continuous naval combatant presence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.  And perhaps that is exactly what Moscow is doing.  Earlier this month, Moscow defense officials had to negate media reports that Russian naval combatant ships were operating near Syria’s shores.  And the statement appears to have been true on that date.  Officials did add, however, that two Black Sea Fleet auxiliary vessels – Olekma-class oiler Iman and Moma-class intelligence collection vessel Ekvator – were either in-port Tartus or operating near Syria’s coastline.  Two days after the first statement, an unnamed naval official told Interfax that Moma-class Kildin would soon replace Ekvator, which has only been deployed for about three weeks.  And now internet chatter suggests Amur-class repair ship PM-138 may soon get underway, presumably to replace Iman (deployed since February 26) in Tartus.

So, what will Smetlivyy’s mission be?  Continued Russian Navy presence in or near Syria?  Internet chatter indicates the ship will visit Tartus twice during this deployment – at the beginning and end of April. What it will do in between remains a mystery, but it could simply conduct “training” operations in the eastern and central Mediterranean.  Perhaps a nice port call in Malta, Italy, and/or Turkey is on the schedule.  In any case, Smetlivyy’s presence in the Mediterranean Sea coupled with the continued presence of intelligence collection ships near Syria certainly will be an interesting issue for the U.S. 6th Fleet, U.S. European Command, and NATO over the coming weeks.

Just wait until Russian Northern Fleet Udaloy I-class destroyer Vitse-Admiral Kulakov shows up in the Mediterranean Sea in a few weeks on its way to conduct a counter-piracy patrol near Somalia.  And when Black Sea Fleet Slava-class cruiser Moskva deploys to the Mediterranean (and beyond) in June...