Russia Keeping Tabs on Alaska

Location of Balzam-class intelligence collection ship "SSV-80" [Map courtesy of Google Maps]

The Russian Navy Pacific Fleet's Balzam-class intelligence collection ship "SSV-80" (aka "Pribaltika") was spotted in late August in the Chukchi Sea, about 57nm northwest of Icy Point and about 147nm west of Point Barrow, Alaska. I wonder if this is part of the upcoming (already ongoing?) exercise Vostok-2014 that I mentioned a few days ago. Or, perhaps, the Northern Fleet task group that is preparing to depart Severomorsk will travel farther east than the New Siberian Islands as has been reported by the RF Ministry of Defense.

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels

Akula I SSN "Samara" (left) and "Bratsk" (right) loaded on TRANSSHELF [photo: Express-Kamchatka]

                                                     [click here for August 30 update]

As a quick update to my previous post, Both Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarine "Bratsk" and "Samara" were loaded on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", and Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Chelyabinsk" on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" over the past few days. The loading operations took place in Avachinskaya Guba near 5258N 15832E. Both vessels are expected to begin their respective transits in the next 48 hours.

Russia's Secret Naval Exercise

Depictions of area closures [Courtesy: Google Earth; Data: GEBCO, NGA, NOAA, SIO, U.S. Navy]

Russian Navy public affairs officers must be on extended summer vacations, because they haven't been churning out press releases on a major exercise off the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russian Far East) set to commence as early as this Thursday. I mean, with all these recent reports of ghost submarines appearing off Russian coastlines, someone's got to be in the office -- those intelligence leaks didn't just happen by themselves. [More on the ghost submarines in a later blog entry.]

Two area closures have been announced for August 28 through September 5:

• HYDROPAC 2470/14 (larger area closure)
  
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  MISSILES.
  1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2000Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 28, 29 AUG, 04 AND 05 SEP
  IN AREA BOUND BY
  50-06-18N 161-38-54E, 50-34-48N 160-14-30E,
  51-23-54N 159-44-24E, 52-16-24N 158-31-30E,
  53-05-48N 160-01-48E, 51-28-54N 163-34-00E,
  51-08-18N 163-18-30E, 50-16-12N 162-11-00E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 060900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 77/14 230915Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 06090000 Sep 14

• HYDROPAC 2482/14 (smaller area closure)
  
  WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  GUNNERY.
  1. GUNNERY EXERCISES 1900Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 30 AUG THRU 03 SEP IN AREA BETWEEN
  52-30N 52-41N AND 159-44E 160-07E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 040900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 79/14 250916Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 04090000 Sep 14

So, what's happening here? According to internet chatter, the following surface combatants recently transited (or soon might) from the Pacific Fleet's main naval base in Vladivostok to ports on the Kamchatka Peninsula (arriving on August 25):

• Slava-class cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy-class destroyer "Bystryy" (may have engine problems)
• Udaloy I-class destroyers "Admiral Panteleyev", "Admiral Vinogradov", and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" (the latter will join up in September)
• Grisha III-class light frigate "Kholmsk"
• Grisha V-class light frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"

The large area closure is well suited for the SS-N-12/Sandbox and SS-N-22/Sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles fired by the Slava and Sovremennyy, respectively.

Is this the start of this year's premier military exercise - Vostok-2014? Previous mentions of Vostok-2014 only indicated that the exercise would occur in September, and most recently, in mid-September. And one netizen wrote, "[Vostok-2014] will last the entire month of September." Military public affairs officers oddly have not provided more definitive dates. If this week's events aren't part of Vostok-2014, then they certainly are meant to prepare ships' crews for it.

Also, according to internet chatter, many of these combatant ships will be away from Vladivostok for up to one month, leaving them plenty of time to conduct additional combat drills. This tidbit of information could confirm the "visible" (to the media) part of Vostok-2014 exercise will occur mid- or late September. We'll need to track President Putin's and Minister of Defense Shoygu's travel schedules over the next few weeks.

As for non-naval participation in Vostok-2014, internet chatter indicates elements of the 38th Separate Motorized-Rifle Brigade have deployed (or soon will) to the Kamchatka Peninsula. About a dozen or so Su-27SM and Su-35 fighters (from Dzemgi and/or Uglovaya) have been deployed there since at least mid-August.

Furthermore, according to internet chatter and somewhat confirmed by this company-press-release-turned-news-article, "Varyag" will continue on an extended deployment to the Indian Ocean following the Vostok-2014 exercise. The deployment has been described by one source as lasting up to six months -- unsure if that six-month counter started when "Varyag" left Vladivostok, or if it will start after Vostok-2014 is over. In either case, a sailor on board the cruiser reported recently that he is going on a deployment that will last until February 2015 during which "Varyag" will make port calls in Indonesia, Singapore, (South?) Korea, and two other unnamed ports.

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now?

"Transshelf" ferries two Victor III SSN, July 2009 [photo: HeavyLift RU]

                                                               [click here for August 28 update]
                                                               [click here for August 30 update]

As the world continues to wait for officials to finish their investigation of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 tragedy in which 193 Dutch citizens perished, the Dutch company Dockwise Shipping BV is quietly preparing to assist the Russian Navy ferry three nuclear-powered attack submarines to Russian shipyards. With the possibility of Russian complicity in the MH17 tragedy, why would the Netherlands allow these operations to continue?

The semi-submersible heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" departed Singapore on July 24, briefly stopped in China in early August, then continued towards Rybachiy Submarine Base on the Kamchatka Peninsula, where it arrived on August 12 (local time). Locals mistook it for "Blue Marlin", another Dockwise ship. As of August 15, "Transshelf" was anchored in Avachinskaya Bukhta near 5258N 15833E. The ship is scheduled to ferry two Akula I-class SSN ("Bratsk" and "Samara") – via the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) -- to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center in Severodvinsk (White Sea). The approved window for the NSR transit is August 25-September 15, 2014.

The second ship, "Hai Yang Shi You 278", departed Dalian, China, on August 10 and is scheduled to arrive at Rybachiy Submarine Base on August 18. It will be used to ferry an Oscar II-class SSGN ("Chelyabinsk") to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen (near Vladivostok).

I hope the grieving families of those who perished on MH17 are okay with this...

Update 1: Here is a news item (+ video) from July 2009 when "Transshelf" conducted the world's first ferry mission of two nuclear-powered attack submarines (Russian Victor III SSN).

Update 2: A review of the NSR Administration website indicates Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (on behalf of Dockwise Shipping BV) submitted a request on April 14 for "Transshelf" to transit the NSR; the NSR Administration approved the request two days later.

Update 3: Updated arrival date for "Transshelf" in the Rybachiy area (August 12).

Update 4: Updated latest position for "Transshelf" as of August 15.

UPDATE: Is Russia's Surface Fleet Being Stretched to the Limit?

In a brief update to my previous blog entry:

• Admiral Panteleyev finally returned to the Mediterranean Sea last week following possible repairs of unknown equipment that broke down some time in July.
  
• Russia had to use a Tarantul III-class patrol combatant to escort another "Syrian Express" landing ship to the Mediterranean Sea and back in mid-August.
  
• Rumors abound that Udaloy I-class destroyer Vitse-Admiral Kulakov suffered some type of propulsion problem in early-August shortly after its Havana, Cuba, port call. The ship failed to meet its previously scheduled port calls despite Moscow's insistence that the destroyer has been tagging along with Slava-class cruiser Moskva the entire time. Instead of bringing the ship home early, naval officials apparently decided it was better to keep the destroyer out of sight and tow it back to the Barents Sea on/about its scheduled return date. Given that no immediate tow service was required, it's possible the destroyer is as least partially operational, which means it has enough power to limp into port while TV cameras are rolling. As soon as the sailors hit the shore, we'll learn more... According to some internet chatter, Sorum-class oceangoing tug MB-304 may be towing the destroyer northeast in the Atlantic Ocean, and both units may rendezvous with Baklazhan-class salvage and rescue tug Nikolay Chiker, which has been hanging around the United Kingdom for several weeks -- most recently southeast of Cork, Ireland.

Is Russia's Surface Fleet Being Stretched to the Limit?

The ongoing "Syrian Express" (using Russian Navy landing ships to transfer materiel between Russia and Syria) and possible shipboard casualties apparently have necessitated changes in foreign port calls and participation in international exercises by Russia's larger naval combatants in 2013.

• Since at least 2004, Russia has been represented by Ropucha I/II-class landing ships Azov, Novocherkassk, Tsezar Kunikov, and Yamal in semi-annual Black Sea Naval Force (BLACKSEAFOR) activations. Novocherkassk, which participated in this spring's activation and which was also scheduled to participate in this month's activation, has been replaced by Dergach-class patrol combatant Bora.
  
• Neustrashimyy-class frigate Yaroslav Mudryy, which had participated in FRUKUS-2012 and which was scheduled to participate in FRUKUS-2013, was replaced by the much smaller Steregushchiy-class corvette Steregushchiy. No reason was provided for the change of plans.
  
• Udaloy I-class destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, which departed Vladivostok in March 2013 to conduct a counter-piracy patrol, was diverted to the Mediterranean Sea by early-May to support the Syrian Express. In late-June, the destroyer was spotted in Novorossiysk. Not much information is available about its whereabouts in early-July, but by mid-July it was again spotted in Novorossiysk, where it has been ever since. This leaves no major combatant controlling the recently established Mediterranean Sea task force that Russia touted earlier this year. While there is no reliable reporting that explains Admiral Panteleyev's need to stay in Novorossiysk, the destroyer apparently will remain in Novorossiysk for some time, as a Tarantul III-class patrol combatant (R-60) was dispatched this month to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea. The prolonged presence of Admiral Panteleyev in Novorossiysk suggests there may be some type of shipboard casualty.

Another "Surprise" Inspection

At approximately 5pm (MSK) on July 12, President Putin directed defense minister Sergey Shoygu to order a surprise inspection of the Eastern Military District to begin at 1am (MSK) the next day. In fact, the inspection will involve forces in both the Eastern and Central Military Districts, as well as Long Range Aviation and Military Transport Aviation assets. The numbers of personnel and equipment to be involved in the exercise (as of July 14) include:

• 160,000+ personnel
• 1,000+ tanks and armored vehicles
• 130+ fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters
• 70+ combatant ships and auxiliary vessels

The aircraft mentioned to date (as of July 14) include:

• IL-20 Coot A
• IL-38 May
• IL-76 Candid
• SU-27SM Flanker
• TU-95MS Bear H
• TU-142 Bear F

The ships and auxiliary vessels mentioned to date (as of July 15) include:

• Alligator LST Nikolay Vilkov
• Dubna AO Irkut
• Finik AGS GS-397
• Goryn ARS SB-522
• Grisha V FFL Metel
• Grisha V FFL MPK-221
• Grisha V Ust-Ilimsk
• Nanuchka III PGG Iney
• Nanuchka III PGG Razliv
• Ob AH Irtysh
• Ropucha I LST Oslyabya
• Slava CG Varyag
• Sonya MSC BT-215
• Sonya MSC BT-245
• Sorum ATA MB-99
• Sovremennyj DDG Bystryy
• Tarantul III PGG R-11
• Tarantul III PGG R-14
• Tarantul III PGG R-18
• Tarantul III PGG R-19
• Tarantul III PGG R-20
• Tarantul III PGG R-79
• Udaloj I DD Admiral Vinogradov
• Udaloj I DD Marshal Shaposhnikov
• Yug AGOR Vitse-Admiral Vorontsov

Part of the RF Navy's Pacific Fleet surface fleet is currently tasked with shuttling weapons in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the following units are not available to participate in the exercise:

• Baklazhan ARS Fotiy Krylov
• Dubna AO Pechenga
• Ropucha I LST Admiral Nevelskoy
• Ropucha II LST Peresvet
• Udaloy I DD Admiral Panteleyev

Was this really a surprise? How could it be when the Russian ships were spotted near the La Perouse Strait on July 13. And when Khabarovsk residents noticed armored vehicles being loaded onto trains two days before the announcement? Of note, the PRC Navy ships that had departed Vladivostok on July 12 after participating in the joint China-Russia exercise Naval Cooperation-2013 followed the Russians through the La Perouse Strait. Very odd... It will be interesting to see what role, if any, the PRC Navy ships played in this exercise scenario.

I almost forgot to mention two IL-20 Coot A intelligence aircraft flights on July 12 and July 14. Further indication (to me, at least) that this was no "surprise" inspection.