Follow-Up 1: Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Since my July 12 blog post, Amur Shipyard has still been unable to secure contractors to tow the Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" all the way from the shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen. And it now seems impossible that the frigate will begin its transfer on August 5, as previously scheduled.

"Aldar Tsydenzhapov" keel authentication plaque -- July 22, 2015
(credit: Amur Shipyard)

On July 22, a new Steregushchiy-class frigate ("Aldar Tsydenzhapov") was laid down at Amur Shipyard. The very next day, the shipyard's contract bid review committee selected Khabarovsk-based Amur Shipping Company as the winner of the contract covering the Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard portion of the transfer. On the same day, however, the committee rejected the only two bids that had been submitted for the contract covering the longer Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18 portion of the transfer. One company, Far East Maritime Freight, may have submitted a bid that exceeded the contract's maximum costs. The bid by the second company, Shore of Good Fortune, apparently did not have tugs that met the minimum tow capacity specified in the contract.


Amur Shipyard's emergence from bankruptcy has had its hiccups. Just this week it was announced that the Khabarovsk Heating Company shut off steam and heat supplies to the shipyard, which owes the company RUB 27.5 million. And the small fire that broke out today could have been worse.

As I stated earlier, if the "Sovershennyy" transfer doesn't begin soon, the transfer of the overhauled Kilo-class submarine "Komsomolsk-na-Amure" (formerly "B-187") from the shipyard to Bolshoy Kamen will be in jeopardy of not happening this year.

Towing Service Contracts for "Sovershennyy" Frigate

Steregushchiy frigate "Sovershennyy" -- May 22, 2015

A year after emerging from bankruptcy, Amur Shipyard finds itself in a bind partly due to a miscalculation of contract costs. And if the contracts aren't signed soon, the delivery of a repaired Kilo-class diesel submarine could be delayed until 2016.

In January 2006, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed a contract (253/05/2/K/0038-06) with Amur Shipyard for the construction of Steregushchiy-class frigate "Sovershennyy". The ship was laid down on June 30 the same year. The two parties signed a supplementary agreement (704/27/2/ONK/DN6/0105-10) in February 2010, four years after the original contract was signed. In November 2011, a second supplementary agreement (Z/1/1/0635/D10-11-DGOZ) was signed to continue the contract after the shipyard was declared bankrupt. In February 2014, following a visit by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, a new contract (Z/1/1/0047/D17-14-DGOZ) was signed to establish new costs for the construction of both "Sovershennyy" and "Gromkiy" (a second Steregushchiy frigate laid down in February 2012). The new contract was signed four months before Amur Shipyard officially emerged from bankruptcy. On May 22, 2015 - nine years after being laid down, "Sovershennyy" was finally rolled out.

On May 26, Amur Shipyard approved a purchase package (RUB 81,900,000) for towing "Sovershennyy" in the shipyard's transport dock "Zeya" from Amur Shipyard to its outfitting subsidiary in Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Amur Shipyard. The towing operation was scheduled to begin no later than August 19 and involve two 600hp (or greater) tugs and one 1,800hp (or greater) tug. A month later, however, the package was withdrawn in order to modify the technical specifications of the work package.

Last week, Amur Shipyard approved two new purchase packages for the operation. The first package (RUB 49,600,000) only covers the tow route from the shipyard to Buoy 18 on the Amur Estuary and (after returning from Bolshoy Kamen) back to the shipyard. The second package (RUB 88,560,000) covers the route from Buoy 18 to Bolshoy Kamen and then back to Buoy 18. The tug requirements and start dates were also modified for both routes. Comparisons of the 2014 and 2015 contract packages are shown below.

Amount	Route	Start	Towing Requirements
RUB 25,000,000	Buoy 18 >  Amur Shipyard	July 5, 2014	1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)
RUB 81,900,000	Amur Shipyard > Bolshoy Kamen >  Amur Shipyard	August 19, 2015	1 tug (1,800hp) +         2 tugs (600hp)
RUB 49,600,000	Amur Shipyard > Buoy 18 > Amur Shipyard	August 5, 2015	2 tugs (1,800hp)
RUB 88,560,000	Buoy 18 > Bolshoy Kamen > Buoy 18	August 10, 2015	1 tug (7,800hp) +         1 tug (3,000hp)

Comparing the cost differences between the May package and the July packages indicates the original cost calculations were off by RUB 56,260,000. Amur Shipyard signed a similar contract (RUB 25,000,000) in 2014 for towing "Zeya" one way between Buoy 18 and the shipyard. If you double the amount, it matches nicely with the RUB 49,600,000 in the July 2015 purchase package that includes two-way towing services.

Miscalculations aside, it's amazing that Amur Shipyard has not yet signed towing service contracts for this transfer. The new contracts specify that the towing operation should commence no later than August 5 and that "Zeya" should be returned to the shipyard no later than September 1. 
The dates are important because Amur Shipyard also plans to roll-out Kilo-class diesel submarine "B-187" and transfer it to Bolshoy Kamen this year. The transfer has to be completed before Amur River becomes unnavigable due to the onset of ice conditions in late October. Any delay in transferring "Sovershennyy" could jeopardize the transfer of "B-187" this year.

Tracking "Ametist"

Tracking "Ametist" along the inland waterway system, May-June 2015

In 2012, Almaz Shipyard (St Petersburg) was awarded a contract for the construction of the shipyard's fifth Rubin-class (Project 22460) patrol ship "Ametist". The unit rolled out of the shipyard in March 2014, and began sea trials in August. The ship was officially handed over the Russian Coast Guard in October and transferred to Kronshtadt, where it remained until May of this year.

"Ametist" could not transfer to the Black Sea in late 2014 as the inland waterway system would close during its transit, forcing it to winter somewhere along its journey. This is exactly what happened to "Izumrud" the year before: it departed St. Petersburg on October 4, 2014, arrived in Volgograd on December 1, and eventually transferred to the Caspian Sea to winter over. It remained there until resuming its transit on April 7 and arriving in Balaklava on May 1, making this a 210-day transfer.

So, how long does it take to transfer from St. Petersburg to Balaklava during the summer? The below chart and Google Earth plots depict the ship's transit along the Neva, Volga, and Don Rivers during its May 12-June 30 (50-day) transit.

May 12	Day 1	St. Petersburg
May 13	Day 2	Svir River Entrance Buoy
May 14	Day 3	Upper Svir River Lock
May 15	Day 4	Vytegra Lock
May 16	Day 5	Kovzha River Estuary
May 21	Day 10	Yaroslavl
May 22	Day 11	Gorodets
May 23	Day 12	Nizhniy Novgorod
May 25	Day 14	Novocheboksarsk
May 26	Day 15	Kazan
May 28	Day 17	Tolyatti
May 30	Day 19	Balakovo
June 7	Day 27	Saratov
June 11	Day 31	Volga-Don Canal Lock 1
June 12	Day 32	Volga-Don Canal Lock 11
June 14	Day 34	Nikolayevskaya Hydroelectric Plant
June 16	Day 36	Koluzayevo
June 30	Day 50	Balaklava

"Ametist" arriving in Balaklava - June 30, 2015

Cruise Missiles Launched in Sea of Okhotsk

Area closures (red), flight ban (yellow), and flight route restrictions (green) for anti-ship cruise missile launches

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, two naval anti-ship cruise missiles were launched from the Sea of Okhotsk on July 1. At least one of them overflew the Kamchatka Peninsula to strike a target east of the peninsula.

Area closures, a flight ban, and flight route restrictions were declared over the affected areas for June 29 through July 2:

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 78/15 CHART 61025
SEA OF OKHOTSK
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 58-39-12N 155-39-06E 59-12-12N 156-10-00E 58-40-00N 159-25-12E
SHORE 57-52-48S 157-34-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 79/15 CHART 60103
BERING SEA
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 54-42-12N 165-34-12E 56-06-18N 162-08-00E SHORE
58-13-30N 162-04-12E 57-16-18N 167-38-12E 55-38-00N 167-45-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

P4325/15 NOTAMN
Q) UHPP/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/330/5620N16440E115
A) UHPP B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORDINATES:
 575700N 1634036E-571618N 1673812E-553800N 1674548E-
 544212N 1653412E-554412N 1630430E-575700N 1634036E.
F) SFC  G) FL330

P4324/15 NOTAMN
Q) UUXX/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/330/5746N16321E320
A) UHPP UHMM B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
 B237 DIVIN - AMETO,
 B240 TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED,
 B241 BERUD - GITRU,
 B242 DIPNA - NIKOLSKOYE NDB (NK),
 B244 APTIK - RITAR,
 B327 BAMOK - IRKAN,
 B484 DIVIN - MUROL,
 B804 BALUB - OSMOR,
 B962 RAMKA - OTLIM,
 G583 NILAR - IRKAN.
F) SFC  G) FL330

According to the first report, an SS-N-19 Shipwreck anti-ship cruise missile was fired by a simulated enemy nuclear-powered submarine [the report did not indicate which Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine - "Omsk", "Tomsk", or "Tver" - played this role]. MIG-31 Foxhound fighters were scrambled "at supersonic speeds" to the "lower levels of the stratosphere" to search for, intercept, and shoot down the missile. The fighters were aided by an A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The blue circle indicates a 300nm range for an SS-N-12 launched at the far western edge of the Sea of Okhotsk area closure

The MOD's second report indicated that Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" launched an SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missile "at maximum range" against a sea target. According to a post-launch damage assessment, the sea target was "successfully damaged." Given that the maximum operational range of the SS-N-12 is 300 nautical miles, the only way this would be true is if the missile flew over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Considering the layout and geometry of the area closures and flight ban, the missile would have had to travel southeasterly from the Sea of Okhotsk.

The events, which are most likely part of the ongoing "exercise" that began in early June, occurred on the eve of the Pacific Fleet Submarine Forces' 77th anniversary, which was celebrated today.

Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base

Location of Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base

Below are some photos taken this year of the Cam Ranh Bay Submarine Base, which was established to support the six Kilo submarines built by Russia between 2010 and 2016.

View from HQ building towards barracks, club, and sports center

View from HQ building towards administrative buildings and barracks

View from HQ building towards club and training center

HQ building

Submarine piers

Floating dry dock

Parade grounds

Barracks

Below are snapshots of Google Earth showing the timeline of construction of the new submarine base.

August 24, 2009

June 27, 2011

July 13, 2012

January 10, 2013

March 25, 2013

March 2, 2014

Update: Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Kilo submarine spotted near La Perouse Strait -- June 18
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It took a little time, but the Eastern Military District has finally announced what was already evident: the Pacific Fleet is carrying out a large exercise. According to today's announcements:

The readiness of fleet forces (troops) to carry out actions as part of tactical groups will be inspected during the exercise, which will be under the control of combined unit commanders in the Sea of Japan, the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, and in Avacha Bay.

During the phased inspection, levels of combat readiness of execution of elements of combat training will be assessed for ship, submarine, naval aviation and coastal troop commands on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the Primorye Kray. Nearly 50 ships and auxiliary vessels, 40 aircraft and helicopters, and up to 14,000 servicemen and civilian specialists will be part of the inspection.

Additionally, Kamchatka-based SSC-1 Sepal coastal defense cruise missile units have been put on alert and deployed to launch points as part of the exercise.

Not much in terms of naval ship participation has changed since this unfolding exercise was first discussed on Monday. According to social media, Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" and Udaloy I destroyers "Admiral Vinogradov" and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" departed Vladivostok earlier this week after loading weapons at nearby Fokino. And Kilo submarine activity continues to be observed near the La Perouse Strait.

While the official announcements so far only point to a naval exercise, there have been some other notable training events in the Eastern Military District this week that may suggest the naval training activities could morph into a larger military district event.

• During one training event, 300 district-level peacekeeping troops were ordered to provide security at an unspecified Primorye Kray airfield as humanitarian aid was being flown in and as refugees were being flown out of an area that had experienced some type of emergency. Nearly 300 soldiers and naval infantrymen were activated for this event.

• On June 18, Airborne Troops, along with MI-8 Hip and MI-24 Hind helicopters, SU-25 Frogfoot close air support fighters, and IL-76 Candid transport aircraft, held a command-staff exercise at the Sosonovyy Bor training range near Ulan-Ude. One of the BMD-2 vehicles dropped during the training fell to the ground after its parachute failed to deploy. The accident may have led to a forest fire which has spread to nearly 730 hectares, although local officials are still investigating.

• Nearly 2,000 district troops and 600 pieces of heavy equipment are deploying to the Sergeyevskiy training grounds in the Primorye area for live-fire drills.

Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Grisha frigate "Koreyets" conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 1, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It appears that Vladivostok-based naval units are heading towards Sakhalin Island, the Kuril Islands, and the Kamchatka Peninsula for what has become an annual event: preparing for the next Eastern Military District-level exercise.

It's hard to hide their movements when they transit the La Perouse Strait, which runs between Russia (Sakhalin Island) and Japan (Hokkaido). Below are the dates and units that have conducted an eastbound transit of the La Perouse Strait so far:

June 1	Grisha frigates "Koreyets" and "Metel"
June 5	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 7	Tarantul III patrol ships R-19, R-29, and R-298
June 9	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 10	unidentified Kilo submarine

Unidentified Kilo submarine conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 10, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

Based on social media clues, the following ships are also heading out on voyages lasting anywhere from one to two months, thus making them prime candidates for whatever events are about to occur east of the La Perouse Strait:

• Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov"
• Grisha frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"
• Slava cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Marshal Shaposhnikov"
• Vishnya intelligence collection ship SSV-208 "Kurily"

Past Eastern Military District-level exercises have been spread out across a vast region, from Sakhalin Island to the Bering Sea. Some of these units will not transit beyond Sakhalin Island, while others will preposition to the Kamchatka area to await further orders. As a reminder, last year's workup for the "Vostok-2014" operational-strategic exercise also took place east of Kamchatka.

And another MOD "surprise inspection" before the main event should be no surprise to anyone.