Impending Bulava Missile Launch

Area closure, flight bans, and flight corridor restriction for Bulava missile launch -- September 11-15, 2015

On September 9, RIA Novosti and TASS, citing their separate anonymous sources, reported that Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered submarines would launch Bulava (SS-N-32) ballistic missiles in the October-November time frame. According to RIA Novosti, "Vladimir Monomakh" would launch first, followed by a dual launch by "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh". TASS's source stated that "Vladimir Monomakh" will perform a salvo launch in November, and that no other Bulava launches will occur this year.

It is odd that neither of them mentioned this week's scheduled ballistic missile launch.

Area closures, flight bans, and flight corridor restrictions have been issued for a missile launch that will occur between 11 and 15 September. The missile will be launched from the White Sea and impact at the Kura Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

HYDROARC 265/15

ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
ROCKETS.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 111300Z TO 112000Z, 131000Z TO 132100Z, 141000Z TO 141900Z SEP AND 1000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 12 AND 15 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY 73-05N 051-00E, 72-30N 052-47E, 71-24N 049-25E, 72-00N 047-20E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 160001Z SEP 15.

G3278/15 - ATS RTE A222 SEGMENT KUMEL-LAGAT CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3279/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
720000N 0472000E-730500N 0510000E-724700N 0514000E-714500N 0504000E-712400N 0492500E.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3282/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
651300N0362700E-653800N0362700E-661200N0371700E-655200N0383500E-651300N0373900E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, 11-15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

G3283/15 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI AREA:
724700N0514000E-723000N0524700E-714500N0504000E.
SFC - 1500M AGL, DAILY 1000-2300, 11 SEP 10:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

P5645/15 - ATS RTE B240 SEGMENT TILICHIKI NDB (TK)-OKLED CLOSED.
SFC - UNL, 11 1300-2000, 13 1000-2100, 14 1000-1900, 12 15 1000-2300, 11 SEP 13:00 2015 UNTIL 15 SEP 23:00 2015.

ПРИП АРХАНГЕЛЬСК 54/15 КАРТА 91306
ЮЖНАЯ ЧАСТЬ БЕЛОГО МОРЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ЗАПРЕТНОМ ПЛАВАНИЯ РАЙОНЕ 65-13.0С 036-27.0В 65-38.0С 036-27.0В 66-12.0С 037-17.0В 65-52.0С 038-35.0В 65-13.0С 037-39.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

НАВАРЕА 200 139/15 КАРТА 11163
ЗАПАДНЕЕ ОСТРОВОВ НОВАЯ ЗЕМЛЯ
1. ПУСКИ РАКЕТНЫЕ 11 СЕНТ 1300 ДО 2000 12 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 13 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2100 14 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 1900 15 СЕНТ 1000 ДО 2300 ПЛАВАНИЕ ЗАПРЕЩЕНО ТЕРВОДАХ ОПАСНО ИХ ПРЕДЕЛАМИ РАЙОНЕ 73-05.0С 051-00.0В 72-30.0С 052-47.0В 71-24.0С 049-25.0В 72-00.0С 047-20.0В
2. ОТМ ЭТОТ НР 152359 СЕНТ

Reporting from last week indicated "Vladimir Monomakh" had arrived in Severodvinsk in advance of a scheduled Bulava launch. As there is no other submarine known to be currently available in the White Sea to launch a ballistic missile, the most likely scenario is that "Vladimir Monomakh" will launch at least one Bulava. "Vladimir Monomakh" last launched a Bulava in September 2014.

Is it just a coincidence that this missile launch will occur on the eve of the opening of the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin?

Follow-Up 1: Where in the World is "Aleksandr Nevskiy"?

Since "Aleksandr Nevskiy" departed Gadzhiyevo in mid-August for its interfleet transfer, Russia's three main news outlets have all taken a stab at reporting when the submarine will arrive in Rybachiy. Below is a summary of their reports.

Note: In Russia, a calendar month can be broken into three 10-day periods, known as a dekada. Thus, the first dekada equates to the first 10 days of the month, and so on.

Interfax, September 2

• Source: "source familiar with the situation"
• Comment 1: "arrival in Vilyuchinsk is expected in the early part of the third dekada in September" -- This would roughly equate to September 21-24.
• Comment 2: "[source] linked the submarine's interfleet transfer to the actions of a number of Northern Fleet ships currently operating along the Northern Sea Route" -- This seems unlikely, as the Northern Fleet ships, as in previous years, are likely hugging Russia's northern coastline to avoid frequent interaction with ice, while the submarine should be operating under the ice.

 

TASS, September 7

• Source: "fleet headquarters source"
• Comment 1: "departed Gadzhiyevo on August 15" -- That seems to be incorrect based on the previous blog entry showing crew members updating their social media accounts through August 18.
• Comment 2: "expected in [Rybachiy] in the second dekada of the month" -- This would equate to September 11-20.

RIA Novosti, September 7

• Source: "highly placed Pacific Fleet HQ source"
• Comment 1: "will arrive in Kamchatka, as planned, in the third dekada of September" -- This would equate to September 21-30.
• Comment 2: "Vladimir Monomakh" will arrive in Kamchatka either in late 2015 or in 2016 -- This is a strange statement for two reasons. First, under-ice transfers appear to be timed to coincide with the period when the ice edge has receded to its farthest northern point in a given year. Thus, an under-ice transfer later than October seems unreasonable. Second, all previous statements (albeit unofficial) on the transfer of "Vladimir Monomakh" indicated the submarine will transfer in the fall of 2016. That being said, there have been a few instances of submarines transferring between the two fleets via a southern route: Atlantic Ocean > Drake Passage > Pacific Ocean. This route was used in February-March 1966 for the transfer of two nuclear-powered boats, an Echo II and a November. It was also used for the transfer of two Delta III-class ballistic missile submarines in January-April 1979.

As the above shows, all of the sources had incorrect or highly implausible information that suggests the dates they provided are speculative and may or may not be backed up by any substantive knowledge of the transfer. The fact that the Interfax and RIA Novosti sources both stated the submarine will arrive in Rybachiy in the third dekada is probably just a coincidence. And if "Aleksandr Nevskiy" arrives during the second dekada, it doesn't necessarily mean TASS' source actually knew that time frame to be true when he (or she) provided the information to TASS.

When it comes to any media outlet anywhere in the world... beware of anonymous sources, despite any official-sounding job title attributed to them.

Musical Submarine Rescue Ships

"Sayany" submarine rescue ship in Valletta, Malta - September 3, 2015
[credit" Emmanuel L.]

On August 31, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Black Sea Fleet Prut-class submarine rescue ship "EPRON" had departed the Black Sea en route to India for unspecified "international military cooperation" with that country's naval forces. The ship transited the Suez Canal, entered the Red Sea on September 3, and is scheduled to arrive in India in early October. "EPRON" last deployed out of the Black Sea in 2011 to support NATO's Bold Monarch submarine rescue exercise near Spain.

What exactly "EPRON" will do in India and for how long is unknown. With the departure of the Black Sea Fleet's sole fully functional submarine rescue ship, this would appear to indicate no submarine operations will occur in the Black Sea for some time. However, Pacific Fleet Rudnitskiy-class submarine rescue ship "Sayany" is currently in the Mediterranean Sea. It was photographed in Valletta, Malta, on September 3, and there is reason to believe it will head into the Black Sea in the near future.

So, what's really going on?

All of Russia's four fleets have submarine rescue ships in their inventories:

- The Northern and Pacific Fleets each have two Rudnitskiy-class ships equipped with deep-submergence rescue vehicles (DSRV); the Pacific Fleet also has the DSRV-equipped Elbrus-class ship "Alagez". Both fleets also have two DSRVs; however, one of the Northern Fleet's DSRVs is currently undergoing a two-year maintenance cycle at Kanonerskiy Shipyard (St. Petersburg).

- The Baltic Fleet has one DSRV-equipped Kashtan-class ship - SS-750.

- The Black Sea has the "EPRON" and the 100-year-old Kommuna-class ship "Kommuna". While "EPRON" is equipped with a rescue chamber, since 2007 the "Kommuna" has had no equipment capable of bringing stranded submariners to the surface. It is equipped only with small remotely-operated vehicles (ROV) capable of surveying the distressed submarine and providing limited support to rescue operations.

Thus, the Pacific Fleet is the only fleet with two operational DSRVs, and the only fleet capable of deploying it (on board "Sayany") to the Mediterranean Sea. As with the Baltic and Northern Fleets, the Pacific Fleet can continue submarine operations with a single operational DSRV.

"Kommuna" submarine rescue ship with "AS-5" DSRV on board - December 2005

In a July 17 Krasnaya Zvezda article about "Kommuna" was this tell-tale paragraph:

In the future, "Kommuna" will again have rescue work. In the near future, six new diesel-electric submarines will arrive in the Black Sea Fleet, and the safety of their operations needs to be ensured. And so plans for "Kommuna" include receiving a rescue submersible and carrying out rescue ship missions.

"Kommuna" was last equipped with a DSRV (Project 1837-class "AS-5") between 1998 and 2006. In 2007, "AS-5" was transferred to the Baltic Fleet, where it served until being stricken from service last year. The above statement, however, suggests the rescue ship may once again serve as the mothership for a DSRV. And that DSRV may be delivered by "Sayany".

If the Krasnaya Zvezda article is correct in suggesting "Kommuna" will take on the Pacific Fleet DSRV on a permanent basis, that means "Sayany" will return to Vladivostok empty, leaving the Pacific Fleet with only one DSRV. While that may be workable for a short time, it would be impossible to operate submarines were the sole remaining DSRV to be out-of-service, either for routine or unscheduled maintenance, for many months. And while Russian Navy's four newer Project 18551/Priz-class DSRVs can be transported via air, road, and train between fleet areas, that is far from the optimal way of providing submarine rescue support.

Yet, the Pacific Fleet was forced to operate in just this way in 2005-2008 and 2012-2013 when the fleet's two DSRVs took turns undergoing long-overdue repairs and upgrades. And it is under these conditions that the Northern Fleet is currently operating - one operational DSRV, one undergoing upgrades. However, from a geographical perspective, the impact on the Northern Fleet is negligible compared to the Pacific Fleet. The farthest distance between Northern Fleet submarine bases (Kola area and Severodvinsk) is approximately 330 nautical miles. Placing a rescue ship somewhere between those two bases would ensure a DSRV could be on station to support operations near both bases and could arrive at the location of a distressed submarine in less than 10 hours. The Pacific Fleet, on the other hand, has two submarine bases (Vladivostok and Kamchatka Peninsula) that are located nearly 1,200 nautical miles apart. Placing a DSRV-equipped submarine rescue ship at 600 nautical miles from either base means it would not arrive at the location of a downed submarine for nearly 30 hours.

"Igor Belousov" with "AS-40" DSRV on board - May 7, 2015
[credit: Curious]

Enter Russia's newest submarine rescue ship, "Igor Belousov", with the fleet's newest DSRV, Project 18271/Bester 1-class "AS-40". Since leaving Baltiysk in August for Phase 4 of factory sea trials, the "Igor Belousov" crew has been testing the ship's diver chamber and Pantera Plus ROV at design depths in the Atlantic Ocean. After being commissioned, the rescue ship will eventually join the Pacific Fleet, probably in 2016, which means the fleet will once again have two DSRVs in its inventory.

The transfer of the Pacific Fleet DSRV will provide the Black Sea Fleet with a much needed boost in submarine rescue capabilities. With the arrival of the first new Kilo-class submarine in the Black Sea later this month and five more over the next 18 months, the Russian Navy cannot risk supporting its growing undersea arsenal using 1950's technology.

Where in the World is "Aleksandr Nevskiy"?

"Aleksandr Nevskiy" and her crew -- December 2010

On August 27, Russian media outlets ran two competing stories about the transfer of Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Aleksandr Nevskiy" from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet. TASS, citing an unnamed General Staff source, reported that the submarine departed port in mid-August and will arrive "in Kamchatka" [presumably its new homeport of Rybachiy] in the first week of September. Later that day, Interfax, citing its own unnamed shipbuilding industry source, reported that the submarine remains in the Northern Fleet base of Gadzhiyevo and won't depart for the under-ice transfer until mid-September. The Russian Ministry of Defense has made no statement to support or refute either claim.

So, who's right? Since the Interfax article was aimed at refuting the TASS article, we'll start with the TASS article.

• The submarine departed in mid-August. This is true if you believe in coincidences. A survey of the submarine's crew members' social media accounts shows many of them were active up until 18 August, but none of them have been active since. And with comments like "I'll be gone until October" and "I'm planning to head to sea (with several bags of candy bars, cookies, and other snacks)," one might conclude that the submarine did, in fact, depart port on August 18 or a few days later.


• The submarine will arrive in Rybachiy during the first week of September. The distance from Gadzhiyevo to Rybachiy is approximately 4,000 nautical miles. In order to travel that distance in 21 days (using August 18 as the departure date and September 7 as the arrival date), the submarine would have to travel 190.5 nautical miles per day at an average speed of ~7.9 knots. Of the eight Delta I/III SSBN under-ice transfers conducted between 1980 and 2008, four completed the transit in 24-32 days. The other four conducted patrols after transferring to the Pacific Fleet area (but before arriving in Rybachiy), extending the total length of their transfers  to 78-84 days. If TASS's source is correct, then "Aleksandr Nevskiy" will make a direct transit and may even break the SSBN transfer record.

As for the Interfax report, all that can be said is that the source's claims are in direct contradiction to those of the TASS source. Moreover, it should be noted that all eight Delta I/III SSBN transfers mentioned above began in mid- to late-August -- never in September.

Thus, based on previous SSBN transfers and on clues provided by the submarine's own crew, it appears more likely that "Aleksandr Nevskiy" commenced its under-ice transit in mid-August and is no longer in Gadzhiyevo. If true, then Interfax's source is clearly uninformed, or someone may be intentionally trying to confuse those who read the TASS story.

The below image depicts the most recent ice-edge reporting and the locations of Russian icebreakers and ice-capable research vessels in the Arctic region. While they may not be tasked with directly supporting the under-ice transfer, they could be called upon to respond in the event of an emergency involving the submarine.

Ice-edge reporting and locations of select vessels in the Arctic region -- August 30, 2015

Did Egypt Take Possession of a Russian Tarantul?

Egyptian President el-Sisi and Russian President Putin meet in Moscow - May 9, 2015

Ten months after Russian Air Force tankers deployed to Egypt to support Russian strategic bomber flights...

...six months after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Egypt...

...five months after Egyptian defense minister General Sedki Sobhi visited his Russian counterpart (General Sergey Shoygu) in Moscow...

...three months after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi visited Moscow on one of Russia's holiest of holidays (Victory Day)...

Exercise Bridge of Friendship-2015

...two months after Egypt and Russia held their first joint naval exercise (Bridge of Friendship-2015)...

...and one week after a Russian Navy patrol ship took part in celebrations marking the opening of the new Suez Canal (attended by Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev)...

...it appears Egypt may have just acquired that same missile-armed patrol ship from Russia.

According to unofficial reporting, the Russian Baltic Fleet's Tarantul-class patrol ship "R-32" was officially handed over to Egypt in a ceremony held in Alexandria, Egypt, on August 10.

[UPDATE: Egyptian officials have now disclosed that "R-32" was transferred from the Russian Navy to the Egyptian Navy.]

"R-32" in Baltiysk -- May 28, 2015

"R-32" is the little ship that no one wanted:

• laid down at Vympel Shipyard in 1994, launched in 1999, then transferred to the Black Sea for fitting out and sea trials;
• after being mothballed for several years, "R-32" was transferred back to Vympel Shipyard in 2007 for repairs;
• transferred to Caspian Flotilla in October-November 2008, then to Makhachkala in the spring of 2009 to prepare it for transfer to Turkmenistan;
• after Turkmenistan backed out the contract to acquire "R-32", the unit was commissioned into the Russian Navy in June 2010;
• beyond its participation in annual Navy Day parades in 2010-2013, the unit remained inactive;
• transferred to Baltic Fleet in October-November 2013;
• transferred from St. Petersburg to Baltiysk in January 2014;
• several of the ship's onboard components were inspected and/or repaired earlier this year: M-15E.1 main gas turbine, refrigerator units, Afalina emergency communications radio-buoy, and emergency lighting equipment.

Oddly, there has been no official announcement yet by either country regarding this possible transfer.

Russian Combatant Participates in Suez Canal Opening Ceremony

If you were watching coverage of today's opening of the new Suez Canal, you were probably surprised to see that the Russian Navy was quietly represented in the ceremony by the Baltic Fleet's Tarantul-class patrol combatant "R-32" (visible at 1:47:55, 1:49:11, 1:52:09, 1:55:47, and 1:56:11; see screenshots at the bottom of this post). Neither the RF Ministry of Defense nor the Baltic Fleet made any prior announcements that the patrol ship would be visiting Egypt or participating in the celebrations.

So, when did "R-32" arrive in Egypt? Polish amateur radio operator Tomasz Golojuch may have provided the only clue in this July 28 tweet:

While Tomasz provided no other data, the presence of "SB-921" (a Baltic Fleet Sliva-class tug) in Egypt last week suggests the possibility that "SB-921" is supporting "R-32" during its unannounced deployment.

"R-32" spotted in Baltiysk in early July 2015
(credit: Lex Kitaev)

The participation of a Russian combatant in today's was surely arranged to coincide with Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to Egypt and attendance at today's ceremony.

Where will "SB-921" and "R-32" head to next?

"Bryansk" Officer Dies in Submarine's Sail

"Bryansk" surfaces through the ice -- August 21, 2007

One week ago, July 25 - the day before Russian Navy Day, a 45-year-old warrant officer (Vitaliy Shimanskiy) died on board Delta IV-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Bryansk". Investigators remain tight-lipped while they continue questioning crew members, as well as relatives and friends of the officer. The only details to emerge so far are that he was found dead in the submarine sail after the submarine surfaced and that he was tied to something inside the sail.

The first clue that something had gone wrong came in the form of an urgent plea via social media for Shimanskiy's contact information during the early afternoon hours on July 25. And then silence... until Komsomolskaya Pravda published the first article about the incident two days after Navy Day. The item quickly spread through social media and was republished by regional and national media outlets.

While there are few other clues about Shimanskiy (he was a member of the submarine's Second Crew), a quick internet search revealed that a Senior Warrant Officer Vitaliy Vitoldovich Shimanskiy had appealed to the Gadzhiyevo Garrison Military Court in February 2014 to force defense officials to pay him money owed following decrees by the Western Military District that had increased his salary. The description of Shimanskiy's job title matches that of a technician working on a nuclear-powered submarine.

Many questioned why Shimanskiy remained in the sail as the submarine was submerging (no one knew he was missing? possible suicide?) and why he was tied to the sail (so his body would be found?). Several current and former servicemen from the submarine's home port of Gadzhiyevo did admit that there was at least one other similar situation, although the submariner(s) in that instance survived.

Warrant Officer Shimanskiy is survived by his wife and daughter. A memorial service was held on July 30; the burial will take place in St. Petersburg.