Follow-Up: Kalibr Missile Shooter Heading to Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban and flight route closures for "Russian Navy exercise" -- February 24-29, 2016

Two NOTAM warnings have been issued for Russian Navy "rocket test firings" that may occur in the eastern Mediterranean Sea next week:

A0126/16 -
RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:45 2016 

A0127/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFFERRED IN NOTAM A0126/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
1. W/UW17 (BALMAS-NIKAS)
2. R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:55 2016

The flight ban and flight route closures are identical to those announced for "Russian Navy exercises" in the past.

"Zelenyy Dol" transiting the Turkish Straits -- February 14, 2016
(credit: Yörük Işık)

Three Russian Navy combatants are currently operating in the eastern Mediterranean: the missile cruiser "Varyag", the destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov", and the missile ship "Zelenyy Dol". The latter arrived in Tartus, Syria, on February 17. While there is growing suspicion that "Zelenyy Dol" may launch land-attack cruise missiles into Syria during its current deployment, different flight bans and route closures were used when Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" launched four land-attack cruise missiles into Syria in December 2015.

Kalibr Missile Shooter Heading to Mediterranean Sea

"Zelenyy Dol" and "Kovrovets" returning to Sevastopol -- February 12, 2016

"Zelenyy Dol", a patrol ship capable of firing land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, and sea-going minesweeper "Kovrovets" departed Sevastopol today to join the Russian Navy's Mediterranean Sea Standing Task Group. This marks the first deployment of the patrol ship to the Mediterranean Sea since it joined the Russian Navy in December 2015. Is this simply a "rotation of forces", as the Southern Military District's press release indicates, or will "Zelenyy Dol" launch missiles into Syria?

"Zelenyy Dol" and its sister ship "Serpukhov" arrived in the Black Sea in late July 2015 for sea trials, were handed over to the Ministry of Defense in November, and were commissioned in December. At no time during the sea trials did defense officials announce that "Zelenyy Dol" or "Serpukhov" had fired either the SS-N-27 anti-ship cruise missile or the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile. Thus, both ships joined the Russian Navy on a provisional basis. The Syrian crisis now affords Moscow the opportunity to test fire the SS-N-30 from "Zelenyy Dol" and possibly "Serpukhov" in the near future.

Admiral Aleksandr Vitko on board "Zelenyy Dol" -- January 2016

Both ships conducted at-sea combat training in January; Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Aleksandr Vitko was on "Zelenyy Dol" to observe and grade that crew's performance. And both ships participated in this past week's Southern Military District surprise combat readiness inspection.

Area closure for Russian Navy exercise -- February 8-11, 2016

An area closure and flight bans for a "Russian Navy exercise" in the eastern Mediterranean Sea were in effect on February 8-11. As of today, there are no announced area closures or flight bans that would indicate if or when "Zelenyy Dol" will launch missiles into Syria; however, those could be announced at anytime.

Russian Navy Activity Summary, January 2016

DSRV "AS-40" (right) + DSRV "AS-28" (left) on board "Alagez" submarine rescue ship -- February 2, 2016

Date	Event
Jan 2	Research vessel "Admiral Vladimirskiy” arrived in Cape Town, South Africa; departed on Jan 4
Jan 3	Cruiser “Varyag” entered Mediterranean Sea via Suez Canal; to relieve “Moskva”
Jan 6	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Da Nang, Vietnam; departed Jan 9
	Project 18271/Bester-1 deep-submergence submarine rescue vehicle “AS-40” recently arrived in Pacific Fleet; to be temporarily embarked on submarine rescue ship “Alagez” until “Igor Belousov” transfers to Pacific Fleet
	Frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” returned to Baltiysk following 28-day deployment to Northern Fleet to conduct weapons testing
Jan 9	Cruiser “Moskva” returned to Sevastopol following 108-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 10	Ocean-going tug “MB-97” departed Kronshtadt; subsequently arrived in Baltiysk on Jan 12 for permanent basing; to be commissioned in Feb 2016
Jan 12	Crew of new-construction frigate “Admiral Makarov” sent to St. Petersburg to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 13	Hull numbers on several Black Sea Fleet combatants changed as early as Jan 13 – specifically, the middle digit was changed. Over the course of several days, the following changes were noted (old > new): cruiser “Kerch” (713 > 753), frigate “Ladnyy” (801 > 861), frigate “Pytlivyy” (808 > 868), destroyer “Smetlivyy” (810 > 870); no other hull number changes noted in the Black Sea Fleet or any other fleet area
Jan 14	Northern Fleet’s Arctic Oceanographic Expedition recently stood up; to perform systematic research of the water areas of the Arctic Sea and territories of Russian arctic islands; successor to Northern Hydrographic Expedition (1924-2011)
Jan 17	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Shanghai, China; departed Jan 21
Jan 18	Research vessel “Admiral Vladimirskiy” reached Lazarev Sea and began its Antarctic survey work
	Crews of new-construction submarines “Kolpino” and “Velikiy Novgorod” sent to Obninsk to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 23	Landing ship “Korolev” returned to Baltiysk following 249-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 25	Fire broke out on “PD-41” floating dry dock at Shipyard 30 in Dunay; no reporting on any damage to ships that were inside the dock at the time
Jan 26	Destroyer “Bystryy” returned to Vladivostok following 85-day deployment

Russian Navy Exercise in Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban (yellow) and flight route restrictions (red) for Russian Navy combat drills -- January 8-11, 2016

In late January, flight bans and route restrictions were announced for a Russian Navy exercise:

A0037/16 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

A0039/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM A0037/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17 (BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
BTN SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

The flight ban and flight route restrictions are identical to those used before by the Russian Navy.

While there has been no official statement by military public affairs representatives about the exercise, there are two naval combatants operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that could utilize the area: Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" (Pacific Fleet) and Udaloy I-class destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov" (Northern Fleet). Last month, the destroyer conducted anti-air warfare training that included simulated surface-to-air missile and gunnery drills.

Follow-Up: Drafting Commercial Ships into the Russian Navy

"Kazan-60" in Sevastopol --- January 12, 2016
(credit: Andrey Brichevskiy)

Four commercial ships that were commissioned into the Russian Navy three months ago have made several trips between Russia and Syria. But a few of them have already required repairs since joining the fleet. Here is a brief update on their condition:

• "Dvinitsa-50" has completed at least two missions to Syria and appears to be operational. It was noted loading cargo earlier this month probably in preparation for another trip to Tartus, Syria.


• "Kazan-60", has never been noted by Turkish shipspotters transiting the Turkish Straits since joining the Russian Navy. On January 12, this vessel was photographed at the 13th Shipyard.


• On December 24, "Kyzyl-60", which was returning from its first mission to Syria, was photographed being towed by Black Sea Fleet tug "MB-31" northbound through the Turkish Straits. The vessel was towed to the 13th Shipyard in Sevastopol, where it remains today, to undergo unspecified repairs.


• "Vologda-50" has completed at least three missions and also appears to be operational.

"Aleksandr Tkachenko" undergoing dock repairs in Sevastopol
(credit: United Shipbuilding Corporation)

While not part of the Russian Navy, the cargo vessel "Aleksandr Tkachenko", which also has ferried cargo between Russia and Syria, recently completed dock repairs at Sevastopol Shipyard. Following post-repair sea trials on January 16-17, the ship began an easterly transit towards Novorossiysk.

"Aleksandr Tkachev" at-sea activities --- January 16-18, 2016

While a recent decrease in known ferrying activities may have been associated with the winter holiday season, it also may have been linked to the condition of some of the vessels tasked to perform such missions.

RF Navy Will Soon Receive Sixth-Gen Communications Systems

Aleksandr Sergeyevich Yakunin - General Director, United Instrument-Building Corporation

[translation of select portions of RIA Novosti article: Aleksandr Yakunin: Within a Year and a Half, We Will Be Ready to Fully Transition to Sixth Generation Technologies]

...

Many of our developments are on the cusp of the fifth and sixth generations. Within a year to year and a half, we will be ready to fully transition to sixth generation technologies. First and foremost, these will be software-defined radio (SDR) technologies, where communications quality will be achieved through software, and not by a device's internals. Software will allow communications characteristics, such as multi-mode, multi-spectrum, and security against intercept by an adversary, to be implemented at a new level.

The first prototypes of such radio stations have already been produced for the Ground Troops. If we're talking about concrete deliveries, then in 2016 the Russian Navy will receive the first advanced communications systems for upgrading existing ships. In 2018, deliveries will begin of sixth generation communications systems for advanced Navy submarines and ships currently under development. At about this time, a new sixth generation system will be ready for the Aerospace Defense Forces, specifically for the Advanced Long-Range Aviation Aircraft Complex (PAK DA). Because of the new device, an aircraft will be able to operate in concealed modes and remain undetected by enemy radars.

Due to a high level of automation and "smart" software, such technology makes operator errors unlikely. It is more powerful, works farther, and provides faster, protected communications. It has unlimited options for upgrading without altering the design - through software improvements alone.

...

The United Instrument-Building Corporation has developed a concept for configuration of a Common Information Space in the Arctic. This is a set of measures for developing a communications infrastructure and various types of monitoring. Using them, Russia will be able to monitor the movements of seaborne, airborne, and space targets in real time, and to track foreign nation activities in the air, on the sea and under the sea, from a near-earth orbit. It is an intelligent system, which will be able to provide necessary recommendations and automatically control various monitoring resources. If needed, it will be capable of targeting and passing guidance data to various weapons systems.

[Are these just plans, or are there already real projects?]

Concrete steps are already being made. Specifically, we have already produced the necessary framework for a radio-electronic surveillance and signals intelligence system in the Arctic. Monitoring resources on various platforms can be used for these purposes - ships, submarines, UAVs, aerostats, aircraft, and satellites. We will be able to reliably determine the types of transiting ships (military or commercial), the weapons on board these ships, radio-electronic tracking devices, etc.

Additionally, a large project is being implemented for the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command. Under this project, in 2016 the Rodnik satellite communications system will begin to be combined with shore-based communications resources to control aircraft, ships and submarines in the Arctic zone. We also are preparing a design for a Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command automated communications control system for Russia's Arctic grouping of troops. Under this design, all governmental and corporate communications and control systems in the Arctic region will be combined into a Common Information Space.

...

In 2016, we will be begin creating a cluster in St. Petersburg, which will comprise eight companies. It will primarily specialize in manufacturing devices for the Navy, shore-based communications stations (including communications with deep-water equipment), radio-electronic intelligence and monitoring systems, automated communications control systems, and telecommunications technologies. More than RUB 3.5 billion has been invested in its development. As a result, the range of products being manufactured will increase 150%, and the quantity of items being produced will increase 200%.

Follow-Up 1: Why Did "Rostov-na-Donu" Return to the Baltic Sea?

It has become much clearer over the past three weeks why Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" made its mysterious port call in Kronshtadt. And it's bad news for ISIS/ISIL, FSA, or whomever Russian forces are targeting in Syria these days. As one blog reader opined, "Don't you think that stories about its malfunction was just a rumor, and in reality the submarine came for specific items that later can be [launched] from warmer waters?"

As a recap, "Rostov-na-Donu" pulled into Kronshtadt on October 29 - the 14th day of its inter-fleet transit from Polyarnyy to Novorossiysk. Claims by both official and anonymous sources covered everything from "topping off supplies of all types to required norms" to repairing broken equipment. It seems the official sources were correct.

Based on drone video, "Rostov-na-Donu" tied up at this pier in Kronshtadt

While in Kronshtadt, heightened security was put into place, limiting access to the submarine's location. However, a few adventurous photographers and one amateur drone did record enough evidence showing that missiles were handled during the submarine's visit. Given the high level of security, one might conclude that it was more likely that missiles were loaded than offloaded.

Circles indicate cylindrical objects and open torpedo tubes/loading device on "Rostov-na-Donu"

The above two images, taken from a drone flying nearby, show a floating crane ("PK-175") positioned on the opposite side of the pier where "Rostov-na-Donu" had tied up in Kronshtadt. The floating crane, assisted by three harbor tugs, transferred from Admiralty Shipyards to Kronshtadt on October 28 - the day before the submarine's arrival. Multiple long, cylindrical objects are visible on the deck of the floating crane, and the submarine's torpedo tubes are open with a possible weapons loading device attached.

Circles indicate cylindrical objects on deck of floating crane

Clearer images taken on November 4, the day the submarine departed Kronshtadt, show the cylindrical objects were visible on the deck of the floating crane. Also visible on the submarine was the flag of an embarked senior naval officer. Looking back at all the photos taken of the first Kalibr-capable Kilo submarine to transfer to the Black Sea Fleet, "Novorossiysk", it is evident that this flag was never flown at any point during its departure from Polyarnyy, during its port calls in Ceuta, Spain, and Oran, Algeria, or during its arrival in Novorossiysk and subsequent transfer to Sevastopol. The flag appears to have one star, indicating a "commander of a formation" (командир соединения) is on board. The 4th Independent Submarine Brigade, which stood up in December 2014 as the new parent command for the Black Sea Fleet's submarines, qualifies as a "formation" (соединение). Thus, it is possible that the brigade's commander, Captain 1st Rank Magaram Yagishevich Adigyuzelov, or his designated representative may have embarked in Kronshtadt for the submarine's transit.

The RF Ministry of Defense did not report on the submarine's departure until November 5. It did state, however, that "Rostov-na-Donu" would now arrive in Novorossiysk by the end of November. This differs from the MOD's earlier reporting that the submarine would arrive in Novorossiysk in early December. Thus, despite the time it took to divert from its previous transit route (~1,000nm from the North Sea to Kronshtadt + ~1,000nm back) plus the seven days it spent in Kronshtadt, the new arrival time is now one-two weeks sooner than first reported. In order to transfer from Kronshtadt to Novorossiysk by November 30, the submarine would have to travel ~5,250nm in 26 days, which equates to a speed of 8.4 knots - not an unreasonable speed. It also suggests, however, that there is no time provided for any foreign port calls as they would increase the overall speed needed to complete the transit by the end of the month. Of course, the time frame provided for completion of the transit simply could have been misstated.

The Dutch Navy keeping an eye on "Rostov-na-Donu"

Two weeks later, on November 17, Russian business news agency RosBiznesKonsalting erroneously reported that "Rostov-na-Donu" had launched land-attack cruise missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The article was reproduced by some notable media outlets, such as Delovoy Peterburg, Gazeta.ru, Kommersant, and Rosbalt.ru. If this were true, the submarine would have had to travel at an overall speed of nearly 16 knots for 13 straight days direct from Kronshtadt in order to launch missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. However, the submarine was being monitored by Dutch naval ships as it transited south through the English Channel near the Netherlands on November 11. Thus, "Rostov-na-Donu" would have had to travel in excess of 19 knots for six straight days from the North Sea in order to reach the eastern Mediterranean Sea by November 17. Finally, the RF MOD has never reported that the submarine launched land-attack cruise missiles, something it most certainly would have done. Despite the improbability of "Rostov-na-Donu" launching missiles from the eastern Mediterranean Sea on or before November 17, RBK has neither edited nor retracted its article.

Flight bans and flight route restrictions

Earlier this month, flight bans and flight route restrictions were announced for Russian Navy exercise being held in the eastern Mediterranean Sea:

A1459/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:37 2015

A1460/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1459/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 14-16 AND 21-23 0500-1500, 14 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 09 NOV 10:41 2015

A1499/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:20 2015

A1500/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1499/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS. 0500-1500, 24 NOV 05:00 2015 UNTIL 26 NOV 15:00 2015. CREATED: 19 NOV 09:34 2015

A1510/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY
353200N0353200E
341600N0340000E
334410N0343606E
THEN FOLLOWING THE FIR BOUNDARY TO 353200N0353200E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 15:37 2015

A1511/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERRED IN NOTAM LCCC A1510/15, THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17(BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78,M/UM978(ALSUS-NIKAS)
W/UW10,L/UL619(VESAR-NIKAS)
B/UB15,L/UL620(ALSUS-BALMA)
R/UR18(VELOX-ALSUS)
R/UR19(LCA-KUKLA)
R/UR655,M/UM601(LCA-BALMA)
P/UP42(DESPO-MERVA)
G/UG2(VELOX-ELIKA)
SFC-FL660. 21 NOV 00:01 2015 UNTIL 23 NOV 23:59 2015. CREATED: 20 NOV 16:34 2015

Flight ban areas defined in A1459/15 and A1499/15 are identical to those previously announced for similar Russian Navy exercises. Flight ban area A1510/15 is of interest as it is not known to have been used before for Russian Navy exercises. And while all of these bans expire on or before November 26, there is no reason to believe they would not be reannounced, if needed.

Of course, it would be easy to draw a direct correlation between the flight bans (those already announced and those that could be announced in the near future) and the unusual "Rostov-na-Donu" story. But...

• Would Moscow really announce to the world the launch location and missile flight path of a future land-attack cruise missile strike?
• Does the geography of the Mediterranean Sea, coupled with large number of international air and maritime traffic routes, necessitate the announcement of flight bans and route restrictions for land-attack cruise missiles strikes?
• Could these flight bans serve to distract potential foreign observers away from the true launch location?