Update: Impending Missile Launch from Kotelnyy Island?

Gunnery/missile area closures near Kotelnyy Island - September 15-25, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Russia has reissued and extended an area closure near Kotelnyy Island:

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1800Z
COMMENCING DAILY 21 THRU 25 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-50.8N 135-00.0E, 76-58.5N 136-26.1E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 261900Z SEP 14.

The new area closure (depicted in yellow above) is slightly different in shape when compared to the earlier closure (depicted in red) that remains in effect until tomorrow.

Moreover, the new area closure's effective dates (September 21-25) coincide nicely with the Vostok-2014 strategic command-staff exercise that kicked off on September 19 and runs through September 25. Whether or not this is related to the exercise, a missile launch from this Arctic island certainly will be linked by the media to the new "North" Joint Strategic Command. According to an ITAR-TASS unnamed "Ministry of Defense source," the new command will stand-up on/before December 1, 2014.

Impending Missile Launch from Kotelnyy Island?

Gunnery/missile area closure near Kotelnyy Island - September 15-21, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

An interesting area closure has been declared west of Kotelnyy Island, where a Russian Navy Northern Fleet task group arrived this past weekend:

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1600Z
DAILY 15 THRU 18 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY:
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-58.5N 136-26.1E, 76-50.8N 138-00.0E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181700Z SEP 14.

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1800Z
COMMENCING DAILY 18 THRU 21 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY:
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-58.5N 136-26.1E, 76-50.8N 138-00.0E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 221900Z SEP 14.

The area closure went into effect on September 15 and will expire on September 21. The warning messages indicated missiles would be launched during the closure times. Given that the closure touches the coastline, it is reasonable to believe a land-based coastal defense cruise missile (CDCM) will be fired. The Northern Fleet task group is comprised of six ships, only one of which is armed with any type of missile: Udaloy I-class destroyer "Admiral Levchenko" with its SA-N-9 Gauntlet AAW and SS-N-14 Silex ASW missile systems. It's highly unlikely the area closure was declared solely for these systems.

A late August Russian MOD press release reported that "coastal missile...units" were part of the "Admiral Levchenko" task group, but it didn't state whether the task group's two landing ships were ferrying the mobile CDCMs or if they were being ferried to the island by other means. At least five commercial vessels have made or soon will make trips to Kotelnyy Island this summer: "Aleksandr Suvorov", "Arkadiy Chernyshev", "Kapitan Borodkin", "Valeriy Vasilyev", and "Yuriy Arshenevskiy". The latter unit ferried unspecified military hardware to the island earlier this month.

At its farthest points (from Mys Durnoy (Zarya Strait) in the south to the northernmost coordinate), the area closure is just over 83nm in length. While it is unknown exactly which mobile CDCM systems may have been ferried to Kotelnyy Island, the length of this area closure could support launches by either the SSC-1B Sepal (approx. range 250nm) or SSC-3 Styx (approx. range 45nm). Given the Russians may place a target near the middle of the area or even closer to shore, it seems like a waste to launch the longer-range SSC-1B only 40 or so nautical miles. That distance, however, would be perfect for the near maximum range of the SSC-3.

A missile shot from the island will certainly be covered by both military and commercial media sources, at which we point we should be able to solve this riddle.