Follow-Up: Kalibr Missile Shooter Heading to Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban and flight route closures for "Russian Navy exercise" -- February 24-29, 2016

Two NOTAM warnings have been issued for Russian Navy "rocket test firings" that may occur in the eastern Mediterranean Sea next week:

A0126/16 -
RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:45 2016 

A0127/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFFERRED IN NOTAM A0126/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
1. W/UW17 (BALMAS-NIKAS)
2. R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 24 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 29 FEB 15:00 2016. CREATED: 18 FEB 13:55 2016

The flight ban and flight route closures are identical to those announced for "Russian Navy exercises" in the past.

"Zelenyy Dol" transiting the Turkish Straits -- February 14, 2016
(credit: Yörük Işık)

Three Russian Navy combatants are currently operating in the eastern Mediterranean: the missile cruiser "Varyag", the destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov", and the missile ship "Zelenyy Dol". The latter arrived in Tartus, Syria, on February 17. While there is growing suspicion that "Zelenyy Dol" may launch land-attack cruise missiles into Syria during its current deployment, different flight bans and route closures were used when Kilo-class submarine "Rostov-na-Donu" launched four land-attack cruise missiles into Syria in December 2015.

Kalibr Missile Shooter Heading to Mediterranean Sea

"Zelenyy Dol" and "Kovrovets" returning to Sevastopol -- February 12, 2016

"Zelenyy Dol", a patrol ship capable of firing land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, and sea-going minesweeper "Kovrovets" departed Sevastopol today to join the Russian Navy's Mediterranean Sea Standing Task Group. This marks the first deployment of the patrol ship to the Mediterranean Sea since it joined the Russian Navy in December 2015. Is this simply a "rotation of forces", as the Southern Military District's press release indicates, or will "Zelenyy Dol" launch missiles into Syria?

"Zelenyy Dol" and its sister ship "Serpukhov" arrived in the Black Sea in late July 2015 for sea trials, were handed over to the Ministry of Defense in November, and were commissioned in December. At no time during the sea trials did defense officials announce that "Zelenyy Dol" or "Serpukhov" had fired either the SS-N-27 anti-ship cruise missile or the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile. Thus, both ships joined the Russian Navy on a provisional basis. The Syrian crisis now affords Moscow the opportunity to test fire the SS-N-30 from "Zelenyy Dol" and possibly "Serpukhov" in the near future.

Admiral Aleksandr Vitko on board "Zelenyy Dol" -- January 2016

Both ships conducted at-sea combat training in January; Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Aleksandr Vitko was on "Zelenyy Dol" to observe and grade that crew's performance. And both ships participated in this past week's Southern Military District surprise combat readiness inspection.

Area closure for Russian Navy exercise -- February 8-11, 2016

An area closure and flight bans for a "Russian Navy exercise" in the eastern Mediterranean Sea were in effect on February 8-11. As of today, there are no announced area closures or flight bans that would indicate if or when "Zelenyy Dol" will launch missiles into Syria; however, those could be announced at anytime.

Russian Navy Activity Summary, January 2016

DSRV "AS-40" (right) + DSRV "AS-28" (left) on board "Alagez" submarine rescue ship -- February 2, 2016

Date	Event
Jan 2	Research vessel "Admiral Vladimirskiy” arrived in Cape Town, South Africa; departed on Jan 4
Jan 3	Cruiser “Varyag” entered Mediterranean Sea via Suez Canal; to relieve “Moskva”
Jan 6	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Da Nang, Vietnam; departed Jan 9
	Project 18271/Bester-1 deep-submergence submarine rescue vehicle “AS-40” recently arrived in Pacific Fleet; to be temporarily embarked on submarine rescue ship “Alagez” until “Igor Belousov” transfers to Pacific Fleet
	Frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” returned to Baltiysk following 28-day deployment to Northern Fleet to conduct weapons testing
Jan 9	Cruiser “Moskva” returned to Sevastopol following 108-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 10	Ocean-going tug “MB-97” departed Kronshtadt; subsequently arrived in Baltiysk on Jan 12 for permanent basing; to be commissioned in Feb 2016
Jan 12	Crew of new-construction frigate “Admiral Makarov” sent to St. Petersburg to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 13	Hull numbers on several Black Sea Fleet combatants changed as early as Jan 13 – specifically, the middle digit was changed. Over the course of several days, the following changes were noted (old > new): cruiser “Kerch” (713 > 753), frigate “Ladnyy” (801 > 861), frigate “Pytlivyy” (808 > 868), destroyer “Smetlivyy” (810 > 870); no other hull number changes noted in the Black Sea Fleet or any other fleet area
Jan 14	Northern Fleet’s Arctic Oceanographic Expedition recently stood up; to perform systematic research of the water areas of the Arctic Sea and territories of Russian arctic islands; successor to Northern Hydrographic Expedition (1924-2011)
Jan 17	Destroyer “Bystryy” arrived in Shanghai, China; departed Jan 21
Jan 18	Research vessel “Admiral Vladimirskiy” reached Lazarev Sea and began its Antarctic survey work
	Crews of new-construction submarines “Kolpino” and “Velikiy Novgorod” sent to Obninsk to undergo specialized crew training
Jan 23	Landing ship “Korolev” returned to Baltiysk following 249-day deployment to Mediterranean Sea
Jan 25	Fire broke out on “PD-41” floating dry dock at Shipyard 30 in Dunay; no reporting on any damage to ships that were inside the dock at the time
Jan 26	Destroyer “Bystryy” returned to Vladivostok following 85-day deployment

Russian Navy Exercise in Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Flight ban (yellow) and flight route restrictions (red) for Russian Navy combat drills -- January 8-11, 2016

In late January, flight bans and route restrictions were announced for a Russian Navy exercise:

A0037/16 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

A0039/16 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM A0037/16 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED:
W/UW17 (BALMA-NIKAS)
R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS)
BTN SFC-FL660. 0500-1500, 08 FEB 05:00 2016 UNTIL 11 FEB 15:00 2016.

The flight ban and flight route restrictions are identical to those used before by the Russian Navy.

While there has been no official statement by military public affairs representatives about the exercise, there are two naval combatants operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that could utilize the area: Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" (Pacific Fleet) and Udaloy I-class destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov" (Northern Fleet). Last month, the destroyer conducted anti-air warfare training that included simulated surface-to-air missile and gunnery drills.