Update: Impending Missile Launch from Kotelnyy Island?

Gunnery/missile area closures near Kotelnyy Island - September 15-25, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Russia has reissued and extended an area closure near Kotelnyy Island:

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1800Z
COMMENCING DAILY 21 THRU 25 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-50.8N 135-00.0E, 76-58.5N 136-26.1E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 261900Z SEP 14.

The new area closure (depicted in yellow above) is slightly different in shape when compared to the earlier closure (depicted in red) that remains in effect until tomorrow.

Moreover, the new area closure's effective dates (September 21-25) coincide nicely with the Vostok-2014 strategic command-staff exercise that kicked off on September 19 and runs through September 25. Whether or not this is related to the exercise, a missile launch from this Arctic island certainly will be linked by the media to the new "North" Joint Strategic Command. According to an ITAR-TASS unnamed "Ministry of Defense source," the new command will stand-up on/before December 1, 2014.

Impending Missile Launch from Kotelnyy Island?

Gunnery/missile area closure near Kotelnyy Island - September 15-21, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

An interesting area closure has been declared west of Kotelnyy Island, where a Russian Navy Northern Fleet task group arrived this past weekend:

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1600Z
DAILY 15 THRU 18 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY:
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-58.5N 136-26.1E, 76-50.8N 138-00.0E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181700Z SEP 14.

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1800Z
COMMENCING DAILY 18 THRU 21 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY:
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-58.5N 136-26.1E, 76-50.8N 138-00.0E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 221900Z SEP 14.

The area closure went into effect on September 15 and will expire on September 21. The warning messages indicated missiles would be launched during the closure times. Given that the closure touches the coastline, it is reasonable to believe a land-based coastal defense cruise missile (CDCM) will be fired. The Northern Fleet task group is comprised of six ships, only one of which is armed with any type of missile: Udaloy I-class destroyer "Admiral Levchenko" with its SA-N-9 Gauntlet AAW and SS-N-14 Silex ASW missile systems. It's highly unlikely the area closure was declared solely for these systems.

A late August Russian MOD press release reported that "coastal missile...units" were part of the "Admiral Levchenko" task group, but it didn't state whether the task group's two landing ships were ferrying the mobile CDCMs or if they were being ferried to the island by other means. At least five commercial vessels have made or soon will make trips to Kotelnyy Island this summer: "Aleksandr Suvorov", "Arkadiy Chernyshev", "Kapitan Borodkin", "Valeriy Vasilyev", and "Yuriy Arshenevskiy". The latter unit ferried unspecified military hardware to the island earlier this month.

At its farthest points (from Mys Durnoy (Zarya Strait) in the south to the northernmost coordinate), the area closure is just over 83nm in length. While it is unknown exactly which mobile CDCM systems may have been ferried to Kotelnyy Island, the length of this area closure could support launches by either the SSC-1B Sepal (approx. range 250nm) or SSC-3 Styx (approx. range 45nm). Given the Russians may place a target near the middle of the area or even closer to shore, it seems like a waste to launch the longer-range SSC-1B only 40 or so nautical miles. That distance, however, would be perfect for the near maximum range of the SSC-3.

A missile shot from the island will certainly be covered by both military and commercial media sources, at which we point we should be able to solve this riddle.

Is Mediterranean Sea Dangerous for Russian Navy Destroyers?

The Russian Navy Northern Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Vitse-Admiral Kulakov" is currently undergoing repairs in Sevastopol following a collision with an unknown tanker in the Mediterranean Sea last month, according to internet chatter. This follows two other incidents with Udaloy destroyers having to enter the Black Sea for repairs during their Mediterranean Sea deployments. In May-June 2013, the Northern Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Admiral Levchenko" underwent repairs, to include work on its bow-mounted sonar. And between June and September 2013, the Pacific Fleet's Udaloy-class destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" underwent some type of repairs in Novorossiysk. It is noteworthy that no other major combatant from the Mediterranean Task Force has had to enter the Black Sea for repairs.

Naval officials' claims that these were "routine" repairs are dishonest. Ships already complete lengthy shipyard periods before departing on lengthy deployments. Therefore, there should be nothing "routine" about theses destroyers having to break from the task group and head for Sevastopol or Novorossiysk.

The impact? The Black Sea Fleet's Slava-class cruiser "Moskva" now has to spend "more than two months" in the Mediterranean Sea, according to an unnamed Navy Main Staff source. According to one internet source, the cruiser will depart on 2 or 3 September for a deployment that will last "2-3 months at a minimum."

Russia's Secret Naval Exercise

Depictions of area closures [Courtesy: Google Earth; Data: GEBCO, NGA, NOAA, SIO, U.S. Navy]

Russian Navy public affairs officers must be on extended summer vacations, because they haven't been churning out press releases on a major exercise off the Kamchatka Peninsula (Russian Far East) set to commence as early as this Thursday. I mean, with all these recent reports of ghost submarines appearing off Russian coastlines, someone's got to be in the office -- those intelligence leaks didn't just happen by themselves. [More on the ghost submarines in a later blog entry.]

Two area closures have been announced for August 28 through September 5:

• HYDROPAC 2470/14 (larger area closure)
  
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  MISSILES.
  1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2000Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 28, 29 AUG, 04 AND 05 SEP
  IN AREA BOUND BY
  50-06-18N 161-38-54E, 50-34-48N 160-14-30E,
  51-23-54N 159-44-24E, 52-16-24N 158-31-30E,
  53-05-48N 160-01-48E, 51-28-54N 163-34-00E,
  51-08-18N 163-18-30E, 50-16-12N 162-11-00E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 060900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 77/14 230915Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 06090000 Sep 14

• HYDROPAC 2482/14 (smaller area closure)
  
  WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
  KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
  GUNNERY.
  1. GUNNERY EXERCISES 1900Z TO 0800Z COMMENCING
  DAILY 30 AUG THRU 03 SEP IN AREA BETWEEN
  52-30N 52-41N AND 159-44E 160-07E.
  2. CANCEL THIS MSG 040900Z SEP 14.//
  
  Authority: NAVAREA XIII 79/14 250916Z AUG 14.
  Cancel: 04090000 Sep 14

So, what's happening here? According to internet chatter, the following surface combatants recently transited (or soon might) from the Pacific Fleet's main naval base in Vladivostok to ports on the Kamchatka Peninsula (arriving on August 25):

• Slava-class cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy-class destroyer "Bystryy" (may have engine problems)
• Udaloy I-class destroyers "Admiral Panteleyev", "Admiral Vinogradov", and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" (the latter will join up in September)
• Grisha III-class light frigate "Kholmsk"
• Grisha V-class light frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"

The large area closure is well suited for the SS-N-12/Sandbox and SS-N-22/Sunburn anti-ship cruise missiles fired by the Slava and Sovremennyy, respectively.

Is this the start of this year's premier military exercise - Vostok-2014? Previous mentions of Vostok-2014 only indicated that the exercise would occur in September, and most recently, in mid-September. And one netizen wrote, "[Vostok-2014] will last the entire month of September." Military public affairs officers oddly have not provided more definitive dates. If this week's events aren't part of Vostok-2014, then they certainly are meant to prepare ships' crews for it.

Also, according to internet chatter, many of these combatant ships will be away from Vladivostok for up to one month, leaving them plenty of time to conduct additional combat drills. This tidbit of information could confirm the "visible" (to the media) part of Vostok-2014 exercise will occur mid- or late September. We'll need to track President Putin's and Minister of Defense Shoygu's travel schedules over the next few weeks.

As for non-naval participation in Vostok-2014, internet chatter indicates elements of the 38th Separate Motorized-Rifle Brigade have deployed (or soon will) to the Kamchatka Peninsula. About a dozen or so Su-27SM and Su-35 fighters (from Dzemgi and/or Uglovaya) have been deployed there since at least mid-August.

Furthermore, according to internet chatter and somewhat confirmed by this company-press-release-turned-news-article, "Varyag" will continue on an extended deployment to the Indian Ocean following the Vostok-2014 exercise. The deployment has been described by one source as lasting up to six months -- unsure if that six-month counter started when "Varyag" left Vladivostok, or if it will start after Vostok-2014 is over. In either case, a sailor on board the cruiser reported recently that he is going on a deployment that will last until February 2015 during which "Varyag" will make port calls in Indonesia, Singapore, (South?) Korea, and two other unnamed ports.

UPDATE: Is Russia's Surface Fleet Being Stretched to the Limit?

In a brief update to my previous blog entry:

• Admiral Panteleyev finally returned to the Mediterranean Sea last week following possible repairs of unknown equipment that broke down some time in July.
  
• Russia had to use a Tarantul III-class patrol combatant to escort another "Syrian Express" landing ship to the Mediterranean Sea and back in mid-August.
  
• Rumors abound that Udaloy I-class destroyer Vitse-Admiral Kulakov suffered some type of propulsion problem in early-August shortly after its Havana, Cuba, port call. The ship failed to meet its previously scheduled port calls despite Moscow's insistence that the destroyer has been tagging along with Slava-class cruiser Moskva the entire time. Instead of bringing the ship home early, naval officials apparently decided it was better to keep the destroyer out of sight and tow it back to the Barents Sea on/about its scheduled return date. Given that no immediate tow service was required, it's possible the destroyer is as least partially operational, which means it has enough power to limp into port while TV cameras are rolling. As soon as the sailors hit the shore, we'll learn more... According to some internet chatter, Sorum-class oceangoing tug MB-304 may be towing the destroyer northeast in the Atlantic Ocean, and both units may rendezvous with Baklazhan-class salvage and rescue tug Nikolay Chiker, which has been hanging around the United Kingdom for several weeks -- most recently southeast of Cork, Ireland.