Impending Pacific Fleet Exercise

Akula I nuclear-powered submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") near La Perouse Strait -- June 20, 2016
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

All signs are pointing to a large-scale Russian Navy exercise taking place in the Sakhalin Island, southern Sea of Okhotsk, and Kuril Islands this week. At least four submarines, sixteen warships, and two auxiliaries were noted by Japanese P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft passing through the La Perouse and Tsushima Straits in mid-June, as described below:

Jun 15	Slava cruiser "Varyag" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 17	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 18	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 19	Grisha frigate "Kholmsk" | Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-18" + "R-298" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 20	Akula I nuclear submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") | Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Tributs" | Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" |  Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-14" + "R-29" | Nanuchka III patrol combatants "Iney" + "Moroz" + "Razliv" | Grisha frigate "Koreyets" | Chilikin replenishment oiler "Boris Butoma" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 21	Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
	Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" | Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov" | Ropucha landing ships "Admiral Nevelskoy" + "Peresvet" | ocean-going tug "Aleksandr Piskunov" noted heading south through Tsushima Strait

While there has been no official announcement of an exercise, social media sources indicate that the ships began departing the Vladivostok area on June 14 for an exercise. According to those sources, the ships will not return to port until mid-July.

"Varyag" was not in Vladivostok when the ships began departing. It was returning from a Mediterranean Sea deployment that began in November of last year. Its last port call was Singapore in early June.

Also missing from the mix is a task group consisting of Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov", Dubna oiler "Irkut", and Baklazhan rescue tug "Fotiy Krylov"; they were last noted visiting Myanmar in mid-May. Although the task group's current whereabouts are unknown, social media sources indicate "Admiral Vinogradov" will not return to Vladivostok until early August, which provides plenty of time to participate in this event.

Area closures (red), flight bans (yellow), and flight route closures (green) for missile activity -- July 5-9

Over the past week, Russia announced a number of area closures, flight bans, and flight route closures:

NAVAREA XIII 44/16
NORTH PACIFIC
CHART RUS 61031
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 05 TO 07 JUL 0000 TO 0300 AND 0400 TO 0800 IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-13-30N 148-48-00E 44-45-00N 148-15-00E 45-26-00N 149-18-00E 45-40-00N 149-58-00E 45-53-00N 150-06-00E 45-56-00N 150-11-00E 46-59-00N 152-35-00E 45-28-00N 153-41-00E 44-08-00N 153-23-00E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 070900 JUL 16

NAVAREA XIII 46/16
SEA OF OKHOTSK
CHART RUS 61018
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 072300 TO 080300 UTC JUL 08 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC 082300 TO 090300 UTC JUL 09 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-28-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 147-24-00E 45-08-00N 147-24-00E 44-49-00N 147-09-36E COASTLINE 44-44-06N 147-07-54E 44-27-00N 146-34-00E COASTLINE 44-28-00N 146-04-30E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 090900 UTC JUL 16

P6342/16 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B917 OSGEN - NELER, B919 ORSUK - LAVNI, B932 NETRI - ODERI,mG239 IKADA - SARET, G583 LATAK - BISIV, G810 SARET - ALODI. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6343/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 460000N 1451600E-460000N 1472400E-450800N 1472400E-444900N 1470930E-444600N 1470748E-442700N 1463600E-442800N 1460500E-442800N 1454300E-443900N 1451600E-460000N 1451600E. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6365/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 07 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 07 JUL 08:00 2016.

P6367/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 0000-0300 0400-0800, 08 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 08 JUL 08:00 2016.

Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft flights east of Japan -- June 27-28, 2016

Probably related to the movement of ships, on June 27-28, two Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft were noted operating east of Hokkaido and northern Honshu.

Russian Navy Exercise in Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Flight bans (yellow) and flight route restrictions (green) for Russian Navy combat drills -- September 30-October 7, 2015

Amidst the ongoing transfer of military personnel and materiel from Russia to the Syrian port of Tartus and the deployment of Russian aircraft to Syria comes the announcement that Russian Navy ships will hold drills in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in September and October. According to a September 24 Russian defense ministry press release, Slava-class cruiser "Moskva", Kashin-class destroyer "Smetlivyy", Alligator-class landing ship "Saratov" and an unknown number of auxiliary vessels will conduct anti-submarine, anti-air, and anti-ship warfare drills in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in the coming weeks; "Moskva" will serve as the command ship for the exercise.

Flight bans and route restrictions for the exercise were announced in early and mid-September:

A1106/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
344400N0345800E
351300N0345800E
351300N0353300E
344400N0353300E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, SEP 30 AND OCT 05-07 0500-1500, 30 SEP 05:00 2015 UNTIL 07 OCT 15:00 2015. CREATED: 03 SEP 07:25 2015

A1108/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERRED IN NOTAM LCCC A1106/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660: 1.W/UW17 (BALMA-NIKAS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (ALSUS-NIKAS).
SEP 30 AND OCT 05-07 0500-1500, 30 SEP 05:00 2015 UNTIL 07 OCT 15:00 2015. CREATED: 03 SEP 07:30 2015

A1166/15 - RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE (ROCKET TEST FIRINGS) WILL TAKE PLACE IN AREA:
345601N0300000E
352206N0300000E
352206N0303145E
345601N0303145E
THE AREA INCLUDES BUFFER ZONE. SFC - FL660, 01-07 0500-1700, 01 OCT 05:00 2015 UNTIL 07 OCT 17:00 2015. CREATED: 17 SEP 09:55 2015

A1167/15 - DUE TO RUSSIAN NAVY EXERCISE AS REFERED IN NOTAM LCCC A1166/15 THE FOLLOWING AIRWAYS WILL BE CLOSED BETWEEN SFC-FL660:
1.G/UG18, L/UL609 (ALKIS-MAROS)
2.R/UR78, M/UM978 (TOSKA-TOBAL).
01-07 0500-1700, 01 OCT 05:00 2015 UNTIL 07 OCT 17:00 2015. CREATED: 17 SEP 10:03 2015

"Moskva" departing Sevastopol on September 24, 2015
(credit: A. Balabin)

Flight bans and route restrictions for Russian Navy activity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have become a routine occurrence. Similar activity took place as far back as July 2012 (A0614/12) and more recently in July 2015 (A0819/15 + A0820/15 + A0821/15 + A0822/15) and August 2015 (A0959/15 + A0964/2015).

Update: Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Kilo submarine spotted near La Perouse Strait -- June 18
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It took a little time, but the Eastern Military District has finally announced what was already evident: the Pacific Fleet is carrying out a large exercise. According to today's announcements:

The readiness of fleet forces (troops) to carry out actions as part of tactical groups will be inspected during the exercise, which will be under the control of combined unit commanders in the Sea of Japan, the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, and in Avacha Bay.

During the phased inspection, levels of combat readiness of execution of elements of combat training will be assessed for ship, submarine, naval aviation and coastal troop commands on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the Primorye Kray. Nearly 50 ships and auxiliary vessels, 40 aircraft and helicopters, and up to 14,000 servicemen and civilian specialists will be part of the inspection.

Additionally, Kamchatka-based SSC-1 Sepal coastal defense cruise missile units have been put on alert and deployed to launch points as part of the exercise.

Not much in terms of naval ship participation has changed since this unfolding exercise was first discussed on Monday. According to social media, Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" and Udaloy I destroyers "Admiral Vinogradov" and "Marshal Shaposhnikov" departed Vladivostok earlier this week after loading weapons at nearby Fokino. And Kilo submarine activity continues to be observed near the La Perouse Strait.

While the official announcements so far only point to a naval exercise, there have been some other notable training events in the Eastern Military District this week that may suggest the naval training activities could morph into a larger military district event.

• During one training event, 300 district-level peacekeeping troops were ordered to provide security at an unspecified Primorye Kray airfield as humanitarian aid was being flown in and as refugees were being flown out of an area that had experienced some type of emergency. Nearly 300 soldiers and naval infantrymen were activated for this event.

• On June 18, Airborne Troops, along with MI-8 Hip and MI-24 Hind helicopters, SU-25 Frogfoot close air support fighters, and IL-76 Candid transport aircraft, held a command-staff exercise at the Sosonovyy Bor training range near Ulan-Ude. One of the BMD-2 vehicles dropped during the training fell to the ground after its parachute failed to deploy. The accident may have led to a forest fire which has spread to nearly 730 hectares, although local officials are still investigating.

• Nearly 2,000 district troops and 600 pieces of heavy equipment are deploying to the Sergeyevskiy training grounds in the Primorye area for live-fire drills.

Pacific Fleet Preparing for Large-Scale Exercise

Grisha frigate "Koreyets" conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 1, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

It appears that Vladivostok-based naval units are heading towards Sakhalin Island, the Kuril Islands, and the Kamchatka Peninsula for what has become an annual event: preparing for the next Eastern Military District-level exercise.

It's hard to hide their movements when they transit the La Perouse Strait, which runs between Russia (Sakhalin Island) and Japan (Hokkaido). Below are the dates and units that have conducted an eastbound transit of the La Perouse Strait so far:

June 1	Grisha frigates "Koreyets" and "Metel"
June 5	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 7	Tarantul III patrol ships R-19, R-29, and R-298
June 9	unidentified Kilo submarine
June 10	unidentified Kilo submarine

Unidentified Kilo submarine conducts eastbound transit of La Perouse Strait - June 10, 2015
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)

Based on social media clues, the following ships are also heading out on voyages lasting anywhere from one to two months, thus making them prime candidates for whatever events are about to occur east of the La Perouse Strait:

• Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov"
• Grisha frigate "Sovetskaya Gavan"
• Slava cruiser "Varyag"
• Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov"
• Udaloy I destroyer "Marshal Shaposhnikov"
• Vishnya intelligence collection ship SSV-208 "Kurily"

Past Eastern Military District-level exercises have been spread out across a vast region, from Sakhalin Island to the Bering Sea. Some of these units will not transit beyond Sakhalin Island, while others will preposition to the Kamchatka area to await further orders. As a reminder, last year's workup for the "Vostok-2014" operational-strategic exercise also took place east of Kamchatka.

And another MOD "surprise inspection" before the main event should be no surprise to anyone.

Air Defense Exercise Over Black Sea

Area closures (red) and flight bans (yellow) west of Crimean Peninsula - February 2015

According to an unnamed "Crimean Naval Base source," Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet ships (including four Grisha-class frigates and Nanuchka III-class missile patrol boats) and aircraft (including naval SU-30SM Flanker fighters) are taking part in an air defense exercise that started today. According to the source, during the first phase of the exercise, the SU-30SM played the role of simulated hostile aircraft. The surface ships tracked the targets and then simulated launching surface-to-air missiles. During the second phase, the SU-30SM were to perform long-range airborne radar tracking and visual identification of cruise missiles launched by an adversary. The SU-30SM were to engage and attempt to shoot down the missiles. If they failed, the surface ships were to launch surface-to-air missiles against the "enemy" cruise missiles.

There are several area closures and flight bans west of the Crimean Peninsula that are in effect between now and the end of the month. One of the flight bans (V0762/15) covers a portion of farming land adjacent to the fleet's airbase at Kacha.

HYDROLANT 316/15
BLACK SEA.
UKRAINE.
GUNNERY.
DNC 10.
1. GUNNERY EXERCISES 0500Z TO 1700Z DAILY 09 THRU 28 FEB
IN AREA BOUND BY
45-00N 032-16E, 44-54N 032-33E,
44-42N 032-49E, 44-37N 032-40E,
44-41N 032-12E, 44-48N 032-08E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281800Z FEB 15.

HYDROLANT 373/15
BLACK SEA.
UKRAINE.
GUNNERY.
DNC 10.
1. GUNNERY EXERCISES 0500Z TO 1700Z DAILY 16 THRU 21 FEB
IN AREA BOUND BY
44-45.0N 033-06.0E, 44-53.0N 032-55.0E,
44-52.0N 033-11.0E, 44-45.0N 033-11.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 211800Z FEB 15.

V0754/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
442141N 0322856E-441435N 0323727E-434616N 0315240E-
434441N 0333810E-434754N 0333815E-434758N 0335202E-
433500N 0335222E-433621N 0313907E-434812N 0313125E-
442141N 0322856E-442141N 0322856E. FL200 - FL550, 16 19 0200-2359, 17 1100-2359,
20 0200-1059, 16 FEB 02:00 2015 UNTIL 20 FEB 10:59 2015. CREATED: 12 FEB 10:58
2015

V0762/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
445222N 0332200E-444649N 0333444E-442629N 0331005E-
442814N 0330625E-440522N 0324835E-442502N 0322512E-
444441N 0330410E-444439N 0331103E-444734N 0331107E-
445222N 0332200E. SFC - FL250, 19 0200-2359, 20 0200-1059, 19 FEB 02:00 2015
UNTIL 20 FEB 10:59 2015. CREATED: 12 FEB 11:48 2015

V0784/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
 442141N 0322856E-441435N 0323727E-434616N 0315240E-
 434441N 0333810E-434754N 0333815E-434758N 0335202E-
 433500N 0335222E-433621N 0313907E-434812N 0313125E-
 442141N 0322856E. FL200 - FL270, 17 0200-1059, 18 21 0200-2359, 20 1100-2359,
17 FEB 02:00 2015 UNTIL 21 FEB 23:59 2015. CREATED: 13 FEB 06:55 2015

V0787/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
442817N 0330627E-441207N 0333858E-441215N 0335126E-
434800N 0335209E-434752N 0333655E-435624N 0330200E-
440522N 0324835E-442817N 0330627E. SFC - FL250, 17 0200-1059, 18 21 0200-2359,
20 1100-2359, 17 FEB 02:00 2015 UNTIL 21 FEB 23:59 2015. CREATED: 13 FEB 07:02
2015

V0796/15 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
450000N 0312000E-450000N 0314500E-440500N 0320000E-
440200N 0313500E-450000N 0312000E. 30M AMSL - FL100, 17 18
24 25 0500-2000, 17 FEB 05:00 2015 UNTIL 25 FEB 20:00 2015. CREATED: 13 FEB 11:09
2015

"Petr Velikiy" Heads for Norwegian Sea ASW Exercise

Possible antisubmarine warfare exercise area closure in Norwegian Sea - December 7-20, 2014

According to a December 8 Western Military District press release, Northern Fleet Kirov-class nuclear-powered cruiser "Petr Velikiy" departed port in the past few days and is heading to an antisubmarine warfare (ASW) exercise. According to Vice Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov (Chief of Staff, Northern Fleet), "a feature of this event is the area where it will be conducted - farther away and with more difficult hydrological conditions than in those areas where we regularly conduct such training." The ASW exercise area is further defined as being "in neutral waters in a training range of a far maritime zone on the border of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas."

While there is only the general description of the ASW exercise area, the following area closure, which was announced last week, seems to match that description in terms of location:

HYDROARC 350/2014    
NORWEGIAN SEA.
HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS.
DNC 21, DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 072100Z TO 202100Z DEC IN AREA BETWEEN 75-00N 72-00N AND 007-00E 012-00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 202200Z DEC 14.

Other participants of the training event, which will last several days, will include "several Northern Fleet submarines of various classes," shipborne KA-27 Helix helicopters, and IL-38 May and TU-142 Bear F long-range, fixed-wing ASW aircraft. At the conclusion of the event, "Petr Velikiy" is scheduled to launch torpedoes and depth bombs.

While Kirov is not the first surface combatant that comes to mind when you think of antisubmarine warfare, it is a capable platform, and it can carry a couple ASW helicopters. But if Russia is going this far out to conduct an antisubmarine warfare exercise, why bring only one ASW-capable surface combatant? Why not include an Udaloy or Sovremennyy destroyer?

Exercise Vostok-2014 - Closures, Bans, Restrictions

Restricted areas for Vostok-2014 exercise - September 20-28, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Maps)

An area closure, flight bans, and flight route restrictions have gone into effect in the Kamchatka Peninsula area in preparation for Russia's Vostok-2014 strategic command-staff exercise, which kicked off on September 19 and will run through September 25. The Pacific Fleet's Slava-class missile cruiser "Varyag" is on one-hour standby to get underway to launch missiles and fire its guns upon receipt of orders.

Area closure (red)
KAMCHATKA-SOUTHEAST COAST.
GUNNERY. MISSILES.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2000Z TO 1100Z COMMENCING
DAILY 20 THRU 27 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
52-16-24N 158-51-30E, 53-05-48N 160-01-48E,
51-28-54N 163-34-00E, 51-08-18N 163-18-30E,
51-16-12N 162-11-00E, 50-06-18N 161-38-54E,
50-34-48N 160-14-30E, 51-23-54N 159-44-24E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281200Z SEP 14.

Flight bans (yellow)
P6495/14 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI SECTOR FROM AZM 117 DEG TO AZM 168 DEG AT DIST FROM 32KM TO 50KM FROM PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY/YELIZOVO ARP. SFC - FL330, DAILY 0100-0300, 22 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 25 SEP 03:00 2014.

P6625/14 - AIRSPACE CLSD WI SECTOR FROM AZM 117 DEG TO AZM 168 DEG AT DIST FROM 32KM TO 50KM FROM PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY/YELIZOVO ARP. SFC - 10000M AGL, DAILY 0100-0300, 26 SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 28 SEP 03:00 2014.

P6496/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA FOR ACFT FLT ACT WI COORD:
5259N 16019E-5148N 16253E-5039N 16011E-5124N 15944E-5206N 15845E-5210N 15848E-5256N 16015E-5259N 16019E. SFC - 25000M AGL, DAILY 2000-0100 0300-0800, 21 SEP 20:00 2014 UNTIL 25 SEP 08:00 2014.

P6626/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD:
5259N 16019E-5148N 16253E-5039N 16011E-5124N 15944E-5206N 15845E-5210N 15848E-5256N 16015E-5259N 16019E. SFC - 25000M AGL, DAILY 2000-0100 0300-0800, 25 SEP 20:00 2014 UNTIL 28 SEP 08:00 2014.

Flight route closures (green)
P6494/14 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
B932 RAPAK - RIMLI,
G73  PETIN - TUSOM,
G801 KUNAD - RIMLI,
G815 KUNAD - DIROS,
G816 LUMES - RIMLI. SFC - 25000M AGL, DAILY 2000-0100 0300-0800, 21 SEP 20:00 2014 UNTIL 25 SEP 08:00 2014.

P6623/14 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
B932 RAPAK - RIMLI,
G73  PETIN - TUSOM,
G801 KUNAD - RIMLI,
G815 KUNAD - DIROS,
G816 LUMES - RIMLI. SFC - 25000M AGL, DAILY 2000-0100 0300-0800, 25 SEP 20:00 2014 UNTIL 28 SEP 08:00 2014.

P6501/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
A812 BAKEN - PETIN,
B703 PETIN - LETSA,
G101 SOBOLEVO NDB (SW) - PETIN,
G583 MALKA NDB (MK) - UST-BOLSHERETSK NDB (UB),
G73  UST-BOLSHERETSK NDB (UB) - PETIN. SFC - FL140, 21 1900-2000, 22 0800-0900 1900-2000, 23 0800-0900 1900-2000, 24 0800-0900 1900-2000, 25 0800-0900, 21 SEP 19:00 2014 UNTIL 25 SEP 09:00 2014.

P6621/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
A812 BAKEN - PETIN,
B703 PETIN - LETSA,
G101 SOBOLEVO NDB (SW) - PETIN,
G583 MALKA NDB (MK) - UST-BOLSHERETSK NDB (UB),
G73 UST-BOLSHERETSK NDB (UB) - PETIN. SFC - FL140, 25 1900-2000, 26 0800-0900 1900-2000, 27 0800-0900 1900-2000, 28 0800-0900, 25 SEP 19:00 2014 UNTIL 28 SEP 09:00 2014.

P6502/14 - ATS RTE B932 SEGMENT RAPAK - RIMLI CLSD. SFC - FL330, DAILY 0100-0300, 22 SEP
01:00 2014 UNTIL 25 SEP 03:00 2014.

P6622/14 - ATS RTE B932 SEGMENT RAPAK - RIMLI CLSD. SFC - 10000M AGL, DAILY 0100-0300, 25
SEP 01:00 2014 UNTIL 27 SEP 03:00 2014.

Update: Impending Missile Launch from Kotelnyy Island?

Gunnery/missile area closures near Kotelnyy Island - September 15-25, 2014 (Map courtesy of Google Earth)

Russia has reissued and extended an area closure near Kotelnyy Island:

ARCTIC.
LAPTEV SEA.
MISSILES. GUNNERY.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2200Z TO 1800Z
COMMENCING DAILY 21 THRU 25 SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
75-53.4N 132-39.0E, 76-28.2N 133-08.0E,
76-50.8N 135-00.0E, 76-58.5N 136-26.1E,
75-57.7N 137-33.5E, 75-35.5N 137-00.0E,
75-37.5N 136-13.5E, 75-50.7N 135-41.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 261900Z SEP 14.

The new area closure (depicted in yellow above) is slightly different in shape when compared to the earlier closure (depicted in red) that remains in effect until tomorrow.

Moreover, the new area closure's effective dates (September 21-25) coincide nicely with the Vostok-2014 strategic command-staff exercise that kicked off on September 19 and runs through September 25. Whether or not this is related to the exercise, a missile launch from this Arctic island certainly will be linked by the media to the new "North" Joint Strategic Command. According to an ITAR-TASS unnamed "Ministry of Defense source," the new command will stand-up on/before December 1, 2014.

Another "Surprise" Inspection

At approximately 5pm (MSK) on July 12, President Putin directed defense minister Sergey Shoygu to order a surprise inspection of the Eastern Military District to begin at 1am (MSK) the next day. In fact, the inspection will involve forces in both the Eastern and Central Military Districts, as well as Long Range Aviation and Military Transport Aviation assets. The numbers of personnel and equipment to be involved in the exercise (as of July 14) include:

• 160,000+ personnel
• 1,000+ tanks and armored vehicles
• 130+ fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters
• 70+ combatant ships and auxiliary vessels

The aircraft mentioned to date (as of July 14) include:

• IL-20 Coot A
• IL-38 May
• IL-76 Candid
• SU-27SM Flanker
• TU-95MS Bear H
• TU-142 Bear F

The ships and auxiliary vessels mentioned to date (as of July 15) include:

• Alligator LST Nikolay Vilkov
• Dubna AO Irkut
• Finik AGS GS-397
• Goryn ARS SB-522
• Grisha V FFL Metel
• Grisha V FFL MPK-221
• Grisha V Ust-Ilimsk
• Nanuchka III PGG Iney
• Nanuchka III PGG Razliv
• Ob AH Irtysh
• Ropucha I LST Oslyabya
• Slava CG Varyag
• Sonya MSC BT-215
• Sonya MSC BT-245
• Sorum ATA MB-99
• Sovremennyj DDG Bystryy
• Tarantul III PGG R-11
• Tarantul III PGG R-14
• Tarantul III PGG R-18
• Tarantul III PGG R-19
• Tarantul III PGG R-20
• Tarantul III PGG R-79
• Udaloj I DD Admiral Vinogradov
• Udaloj I DD Marshal Shaposhnikov
• Yug AGOR Vitse-Admiral Vorontsov

Part of the RF Navy's Pacific Fleet surface fleet is currently tasked with shuttling weapons in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, the following units are not available to participate in the exercise:

• Baklazhan ARS Fotiy Krylov
• Dubna AO Pechenga
• Ropucha I LST Admiral Nevelskoy
• Ropucha II LST Peresvet
• Udaloy I DD Admiral Panteleyev

Was this really a surprise? How could it be when the Russian ships were spotted near the La Perouse Strait on July 13. And when Khabarovsk residents noticed armored vehicles being loaded onto trains two days before the announcement? Of note, the PRC Navy ships that had departed Vladivostok on July 12 after participating in the joint China-Russia exercise Naval Cooperation-2013 followed the Russians through the La Perouse Strait. Very odd... It will be interesting to see what role, if any, the PRC Navy ships played in this exercise scenario.

I almost forgot to mention two IL-20 Coot A intelligence aircraft flights on July 12 and July 14. Further indication (to me, at least) that this was no "surprise" inspection.