Possible Land-Attack Cruise Missile Launch Scheduled for Next Week

Flight bans (yellow) and an area closure for missile activity (red) - December 8-10, 2014

                        [updated December 6 to include flight bans and modify launch candidates]

Unusual flight bans and area closure for Barents Sea missile activity have been announced for December 8-10:

G2604/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT:
692800N 0351600E-695500N 0351400E-702900N 0450400E-691700N 0474000E-684500N 0474000E-683600N 0475000E-683000N 0482000E-682800N 0492000E-682000N 0494000E-681000N 0490000E-680900N 0482000E-675500N 0481000E-675000N 0474000E-675200N 0472000E-683100N 0463800E-681800N 0452500E-694500N 0435000E-692100N 0360000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC 17:00 2014.

G2610/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREA BOUNDED BY COORD:
692800N 0351600E-692100N 0360000E-691500N 0351000E-692800N 0351600E.
SFC - FL070, DAILY 0200-1700, 08 DEC 02:00 2014 UNTIL 10 DEC
17:00 2014. CREATED: 05 DEC 05:02 2014

HYDROARC 349/14
ARCTIC.
BARENTS SEA.
MISSILES.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1100Z DAILY 08 THRU 10 DEC IN AREA BOUND BY:
69-55.0N 035-14.0E, 70-29.0N 045-04.0E, 68-54.0N 048-13.5E, 68-43.0N 048-37.0E, 68-03.0N 049-54.0E, 67-35.0N 047-52.0E, 67-49.0N 046-42.0E, 68-29.0N 045-47.0E, 69-45.0N 043-50.0E, 69-15.0N 035-10.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 101200Z DEC 14.

The area closure has two legs measuring approximately 215nm and 180nm - for a total length of nearly 400nm. The range is longer than known ranges of Russian anti-ship cruise missiles, and the dog-leg turn is not something one would expect of an anti-ship cruise missile area closure, suggesting this is a land-attack cruise missile launch. The eastern-most leg ends at the shoreline that is adjacent to Cheshkaya Guba.

While the launch platform is not yet known, there are at least two candidates, both of which are armed with the SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile (range: 800nm-1,400nm, depending on the warhead payload):

• Severodvinsk-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Severodvinsk"
• Kilo-class diesel submarine "Novorossiysk", which arrived in Polyarnyy last month

[Follow-up: On December 8, Victor III-class nuclear-powered submarine "Obninsk" successfully launched a cruise missile from a submerged location in the Barents Sea towards the Chizha Test Range, according to a Northern Fleet spokesperson.]