Cruise Missiles Launched in Sea of Okhotsk

Area closures (red), flight ban (yellow), and flight route restrictions (green) for anti-ship cruise missile launches

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, two naval anti-ship cruise missiles were launched from the Sea of Okhotsk on July 1. At least one of them overflew the Kamchatka Peninsula to strike a target east of the peninsula.

Area closures, a flight ban, and flight route restrictions were declared over the affected areas for June 29 through July 2:

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 78/15 CHART 61025
SEA OF OKHOTSK
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 58-39-12N 155-39-06E 59-12-12N 156-10-00E 58-40-00N 159-25-12E
SHORE 57-52-48S 157-34-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

PRIP PETROPAVLOVSK 79/15 CHART 60103
BERING SEA
1. MISSILE FIRINGS 29 JUNE THRU 01 JULY 2300 DURATION 6 HOURS
AREA 54-42-12N 165-34-12E 56-06-18N 162-08-00E SHORE
58-13-30N 162-04-12E 57-16-18N 167-38-12E 55-38-00N 167-45-48E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 020600 JULY

P4325/15 NOTAMN
Q) UHPP/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/330/5620N16440E115
A) UHPP B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORDINATES:
 575700N 1634036E-571618N 1673812E-553800N 1674548E-
 544212N 1653412E-554412N 1630430E-575700N 1634036E.
F) SFC  G) FL330

P4324/15 NOTAMN
Q) UUXX/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/330/5746N16321E320
A) UHPP UHMM B) 1506292300 C) 1507020500
D) DAILY 2300-0100 0300-0500
E) ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD:
 B237 DIVIN - AMETO,
 B240 TILICHIKI NDB (TK) - OKLED,
 B241 BERUD - GITRU,
 B242 DIPNA - NIKOLSKOYE NDB (NK),
 B244 APTIK - RITAR,
 B327 BAMOK - IRKAN,
 B484 DIVIN - MUROL,
 B804 BALUB - OSMOR,
 B962 RAMKA - OTLIM,
 G583 NILAR - IRKAN.
F) SFC  G) FL330

According to the first report, an SS-N-19 Shipwreck anti-ship cruise missile was fired by a simulated enemy nuclear-powered submarine [the report did not indicate which Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine - "Omsk", "Tomsk", or "Tver" - played this role]. MIG-31 Foxhound fighters were scrambled "at supersonic speeds" to the "lower levels of the stratosphere" to search for, intercept, and shoot down the missile. The fighters were aided by an A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The blue circle indicates a 300nm range for an SS-N-12 launched at the far western edge of the Sea of Okhotsk area closure

The MOD's second report indicated that Slava-class cruiser "Varyag" launched an SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missile "at maximum range" against a sea target. According to a post-launch damage assessment, the sea target was "successfully damaged." Given that the maximum operational range of the SS-N-12 is 300 nautical miles, the only way this would be true is if the missile flew over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Considering the layout and geometry of the area closures and flight ban, the missile would have had to travel southeasterly from the Sea of Okhotsk.

The events, which are most likely part of the ongoing "exercise" that began in early June, occurred on the eve of the Pacific Fleet Submarine Forces' 77th anniversary, which was celebrated today.

MOD vs Zvezdochka Shipyard: Oscar II "Orel"

Oscar II submarine "Orel" undergoing dock repairs at 82nd Shipyard (Roslyakovo) - March 31, 2012
credit: avsky

On December 30, 2010, the Russian Ministry of Defense signed state contract R/1/2/0137/GK-11-DGOZ with Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center for service maintenance and repairs of Northern Fleet ships and submarines, to include Oscar II submarine "Orel", Sierra II submarine "Pskov", and Victor III submarines "Obninsk" and "Tambov". Costs included in the table of work to be performed on "Orel" totaled RUB 10,529,136. While the contract was signed in December 2010, the specific repairs for "Orel" were not approved by the MOD until May 22, 2012 - nearly 17 months after the contract was signed. According to the contract, all work under the contract was to be completed by December 31, 2012.

On December 25, 2014, the MOD filed papers with the Arbitration Court of Moscow seeking RUB 3,042,920 in compensation for the shipyard's failure to complete the agreed to work on "Orel" by the specified deadline. According to its complaint, the MOD stated that some elements of the submarine's repairs were not completed as of October 16, 2013, or 289 days after the contract deadline.

The court determined that nearly all contract line items for the "Orel" repairs were completed by the deadline. Two line items, totaling RUB 7,260,831, were completed by May 13, 2013. However, this delay was caused in part by the MOD's failure to finalize the specifics of the submarine's repairs as they related to those two line items until May 2012.

On April 2, 2015, the court issued its decision (A40-217314/2014) in which it found Zvezdochka was not authorized to unilaterally stop work under the contract, as it violated Articles 309 and 310 of the Russian State Code. The court, however, dismissed the MOD's claim that a contract having multiple line items can only be considered complete when all line items have been completed. Since the shipyard did complete all but two of the line items within the stated deadline, the court limited the shipyard's compensation to the MOD to RUB 500,000 (about 16% of what the MOD was seeking), plus another RUB 13,000 in court fees.

Within a few days, both sides filed appeals with the 9th Arbitration Appeals Court, which is scheduled to begin reviewing the case on July 7.

Which Subs Will Be Upgraded to Carry Kalibr?

In 2014, Admiral Viktor Chirkov, head of the Russian Navy, stated:

"By 2020, 12 multipurpose nuclear-powered submarines are scheduled to undergo deep modernization: Project 949AM – four units, Project 971M – six units, Project 945M – two units. Characteristics of these submarines will not be inferior to foreign equivalents, but rather, in terms of certain criteria, such as strike missile weapon loads, they will be superior to their foreign equivalents."

In this context, "deep modernization" most certainly refers to reconfiguring the submarines to carry the Kalibr family of missiles (SS-N-27 antiship cruise missile, SS-N-30 land-attack cruise missile, and 91R antisubmarine missile) and, in most (if not all) cases, upgrading to the MGK-540M (Kizhuch) sonar system. Based on multiple statements and a review of repair contracts and annual stockholder reports, the following is a list of known candidates that fit Chirkov's "deep modernization" projections:

Class	Name	Age
Akula I	"Bratsk"	27
Akula I	"Leopard"	22
Akula I	"Samara"	19
Akula I	"Volk"	23
Oscar II	"Chelyabinsk"	24
Oscar II	"Irkutsk"	26
Oscar II	"Tver"	22
Sierra I	"Karp"	27
Sierra I	"Kostroma"	24

There certainly are other upgrade candidates, including announced upgrades for specific units, but none of them appear to be in place for an upgrade shipyard period before 2020. Also note that Chirkov's projections do not specify upgrades to old Kilo diesel submarines or Victor III nuclear-powered submarines. Contracts for the ongoing repairs of Sierra II "Pskov" and Victor III "Tambov" provide no indications of Kalibr or major sonar system upgrades. Victor III "Obninsk" completed a repair period in 2014, which was classified by shipyard officials as a "restoration of technical readiness" and not "deep modernization." Thus, the recent launch of a probable land-attack cruise missile by "Obninsk" indicates that submarine is simply being used as a test platform.

The question still remains: can all this really be achieved by 2020? Given Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center's experience and record, it is certainly possible that the six units the shipyard was contracted to upgrade will be finished by 2020. The same cannot be said for Zvezda Far East Shipyard, which has a record of continually delayed repair schedules and a (criminal) history of not actually performing the repairs it was contracted and paid to perform. The MOD currently has at least five cases against Zvezda Far East Shipyard at various levels in the Russian arbitration court system and is seeking to receive over RUB 111.5 million in payments and fines. Factors that will impact both shipyards are continuing Western sanctions, the loss of access to Ukrainian firms that produced parts and components used in Russian submarines, and the ruble crisis.

In 2020 and beyond, the field of candidates for Kalibr/Kizhuch upgrades could include the following:

Class	Name	Age (in 2020)
Akula I	"Kuzbass"	28
Akula I	"Magadan"	31
Akula I	"Nerpa" ("INS Chakra")	9
Akula I	"Pantera"	30
Akula I	"Tigr"	27
Akula II	"Gepard"	19
Akula II	"Vepr"	25
Oscar II	"Omsk"	27
Oscar II	"Orel"	28
Oscar II	"Smolensk"	30
Oscar II	"Tomsk"	24
Oscar II	"Voronezh"	31
Sierra II	"Nizhniy Novgorod"	30
Sierra II	"Pskov"	27

Russian Pacific Fleet Submarine Force: It Could Be Worse

Oscar II submarine "Omsk" returns to Rybachiy Submarine Base
(credit: RF Ministry of Defense)

The Western Military District issued a gushing press release today in which it reported that the Russian Navy Northern Fleet (no longer part of the Western Military District as of December 1, 2014) had won 13 of the 24 Russian Navy CINC trophies awarded this year. Singled out in the press release were three submarine commanding officers: Captain 1st Rank Dmitriy Ivanov (Sierra II-class nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine "Nizhniy Novgorod"), Captain 2nd Rank Denis Semyanskikh (Delta IV-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine "Yekaterinburg" - his crew was on "Tula" for the May 2014 launch of a single SS-N-23/Skiff ballistic missile), and Captain 2nd Rank Sergey Pirozhenko (Kilo-class diesel submarine "Kaluga").

One might think that the Pacific Fleet, which hosted this year's operational-strategic exercise VOSTOK, would have surpassed all other fleets or at least tied for first place. When your fleet's in poor shape, however, it's hard to win many.

Looking at just the Pacific Fleet's operational nuclear submarine force, there are only two Delta III-class ballistic missile submarines and two Oscar II-class cruise missile submarines capable of performing their wartime missions. The fleet has no operational Akula I-class fast-attack submarines. So, where are the rest?

• Delta III: Both "Podolsk" and "Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets" turned 35 years old this year. These two have served well past their design service lives because Dolgorukiy-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines "Aleksandr Nevskiy" and "Vladimir Monomakh" failed to transfer - in 2014, 2013, 2012, etc. - to the Pacific Fleet despite the many proclamations by defense minister Sergey Shoygu, his predecessor, and all of their subordinates. Will Delta III "Ryazan" ever return from long-term maintenance? After transferring from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet in 2008, "Ryazan" only served three years before heading to Zvezda Far East Shipyard (Bolshoy Kamen) in 2011 for repairs. The submarine has been there so long the MOD had to sign a second contract in 2013 to cover the repairs that should have been completed under the first contract.

• Oscar II: "Omsk" and "Tver" are the fleet's only two operational General Purpose Force nuclear-powered submarines, and both of them won trophies this year. "Omsk" just returned from somewhere in the past few days as suggested by a MOD tweet today. "Krasnoyarsk" is being scrapped. "Irkutsk" is at Zvezda Far East Shipyard undergoing upgrades to carry the Kalibr-family of missiles. It won't return to service until at least December 2017. "Chelyabinsk" was just delivered to Zvezda Far East Shipyard this year, and no major components have been ordered for its Kalibr upgrade. Finally, "Tomsk" transferred to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in 2008 for a simple service life extension repair period, but it has yet to return to operational service.

• Akula I: "Akula" and "Barnaul" have been scrapped. "Kashalot" has been stuck at Amur Shipyard since 2003; its fate is unknown. "Bratsk" and "Samara" were ferried on board the Dutch-flagged heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" this summer from Rybachiy to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (Severodvinsk) for Kalibr upgrades. "Kuzbass" and "Magadan" have been at Zvezda Far East Shipyard since at least 2009 and 2012, respectively; their fates also remain unclear.

In other words, of the 13 nuclear-powered submarines still on the Pacific Fleet's books, only ~31% are operational.

You can't win a soccer match if you don't have enough players on the field.

Dolgorukiy SSBN: The Dirty Secret Under the Hood

Dolgorukiy SSBN "Yuriy Dolgorukiy" underway in the White Sea - September 7, 2009
(Image courtesy of images.yandex.ru)

The Russian Navy’s newest class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines is not as new as Moscow's submarine dealers would like you to know.

All of the Dolgorukiy-class (Project 955) SSBNs launched to date are actually hybrids of Akula SSNs and Oscar II SSGNs. I’m not sure why this isn’t more clearly explained in the English-language Wikipedia article, but it’s abundantly clear in the Russian-language version of the article.

If it were only the Frankenstein hull, then all debate could center on the third generation hull structure’s impact on the submarine’s theoretical tactical performance and detectability. But the hull is not the only borrowed item on this submarine.

It turns out that in addition to hull sections, the Dolgorukiy SSBN is borrowing used steam turbines from scrapped nuclear-powered submarines that were built nearly 30 years ago. This month, the Northeastern Repair Center in Vilyuchinsk (Kamchatka Peninsula) announced it was signing a contract (worth RUB 1,198,951) with the Far East subsidiary of Onega Scientific Research Technological Design Bureau (in Bolshoy Kamen, east of Vladivostok) for the “creation of technological and design documentation to support the removal of modular steam turbine plant equipment” plus “assistance during the deinstallation and removal of an Azurit-M modular steam turbine plant [from Oscar II SSGN “Krasnoyarsk”]" in the 4th quarter of 2014. The umbrella contract under which this work is to be done is Z/1/1/0169/GK-12-DGOZ, signed on May 25, 2012, which actually covers the construction of hulls 5-8 of the Dolgorukiy SSBN class. Thus, the steam turbine plant on “Krasnoyarsk” will be used in the construction of a future, new and improved Project 955A version of the Dolgorukiy SSBN (the 955A series started with the fourth hull, "Knyaz Vladimir"). And there is a strong suspicion that this has happened with some, if not all, of the earlier units, as well.

How much would you pay for a “new” car that used a frame constructed from 30-year-old cars and that was powered by a used engine?

Show me the Car Sub Fax!!!

Update: Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers

Oscar II SSGN "Chelyabinsk" on "Transshelf" near Bolshoy Kamen, September 9, 2014 (Photo credit: VitTE)

Quick updates of the submarine transfers:

• Today, four days after arriving near Bolshoy Kamen, the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" finally offloaded Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine "Chelyabinsk", according to a local resident. Here's a short video of "HYSY 278" anchored in Ussuriyskiy Bay near Bolshoy Kamen before the submarine was offloaded.
• The Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel remains anchored in the exact same position as it was yesterday. The icebreaker "Krasin" did arrive in Pevek by 0800 GMT yesterday. When the icebreaker will depart port remains a mystery.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014) 

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN (September 7, 2014

Update: "Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (September 10, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Arrives Near Bolshoy Kamen With Oscar II SSGN

Track of "Hai Yang Shi You 278", September 7, 2014
(Map courtesy of Google Maps)

As expected, the Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" arrived in the vicinity of the Zvezda Far East Shipyard today with Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine "Chelyabinsk" on board. The trip from the Kamchatka Peninsula, through the Sea of Okhotsk, La Perouse Strait, and Sea of Japan took seven days. The ship traveled the nearly 1460nm in 166 hours, which equates to an average speed of 8.8 knots (there were a few times it traveled in excess of 13 knots). It arrived at its current position (about 4nm west of the shipyard) during the 0700 GMT hour (1800 local time) -- four hours ahead of its earlier estimated time of arrival -- and has remained there ever since.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers (September 5, 2014)

Status of Russian Navy Nuke Boat Transfers

Locations of "Hai Yang Shi You 278" and "Transshelf" on September 4, 2014 [Map courtesy of Google Maps]

The Dockwise semi-submersible vessels "Hai Yang Shi You 278" and "Transshelf" continue to ferry their submarine cargo to their respective destinations:

• "Hai Yang Shi You 278", with Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Chelyabinsk" on board, has entered the Sea of Okhotsk and was located about 150nm north of Iturup Island at 1100 GMT on September 4. The vessel's estimated time of arrival at Zvezda Far East Ship in Bolshoy Kamen is 1100 GMT on September 7.
• "Transshelf", with Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarines "Bratsk" and "Samara" on board, has transited the Bering Strait and was located about 25nm northwest of Diomid Island at 0800 GMT on September 4.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN (September 3, 2014)

"HYSY 278" Departs Russia With Oscar II SSGN

Locations of "Hai Yang Shi You 278" on September 2, 2014

The Dockwise semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" departed Avachinskaya Guba (Russia) on September 2 after having onloaded Russian Navy Pacific Fleet Oscar II-class nuclear-powered submarine "Chelyabinsk" over a week ago. The ship departed its mooring position during the 0900 GMT hour, exited the bay, turned south, and was located about 36nm southeast of Mys Mayachnyy at 1400 GMT. "HYSY" should arrive at Zvezda Far East Shipyard with one week.

For earlier reporting:

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now? (August 14, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels (August 28, 2014)

"Transshelf" Departs Russia With Nuke Boats (August 31, 2014)

Nuke Boats Loaded on Heavy-Lift Vessels

Akula I SSN "Samara" (left) and "Bratsk" (right) loaded on TRANSSHELF [photo: Express-Kamchatka]

                                                     [click here for August 30 update]

As a quick update to my previous post, Both Akula I-class nuclear-powered submarine "Bratsk" and "Samara" were loaded on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Transshelf", and Oscar II-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine "Chelyabinsk" on the semi-submersible heavy-lift vessel "Hai Yang Shi You 278" over the past few days. The loading operations took place in Avachinskaya Guba near 5258N 15832E. Both vessels are expected to begin their respective transits in the next 48 hours.

Why is the Netherlands Helping the Russian Navy Right Now?

"Transshelf" ferries two Victor III SSN, July 2009 [photo: HeavyLift RU]

                                                               [click here for August 28 update]
                                                               [click here for August 30 update]

As the world continues to wait for officials to finish their investigation of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 tragedy in which 193 Dutch citizens perished, the Dutch company Dockwise Shipping BV is quietly preparing to assist the Russian Navy ferry three nuclear-powered attack submarines to Russian shipyards. With the possibility of Russian complicity in the MH17 tragedy, why would the Netherlands allow these operations to continue?

The semi-submersible heavy-lift ship "Transshelf" departed Singapore on July 24, briefly stopped in China in early August, then continued towards Rybachiy Submarine Base on the Kamchatka Peninsula, where it arrived on August 12 (local time). Locals mistook it for "Blue Marlin", another Dockwise ship. As of August 15, "Transshelf" was anchored in Avachinskaya Bukhta near 5258N 15833E. The ship is scheduled to ferry two Akula I-class SSN ("Bratsk" and "Samara") – via the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) -- to Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center in Severodvinsk (White Sea). The approved window for the NSR transit is August 25-September 15, 2014.

The second ship, "Hai Yang Shi You 278", departed Dalian, China, on August 10 and is scheduled to arrive at Rybachiy Submarine Base on August 18. It will be used to ferry an Oscar II-class SSGN ("Chelyabinsk") to Zvezda Far East Shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen (near Vladivostok).

I hope the grieving families of those who perished on MH17 are okay with this...

Update 1: Here is a news item (+ video) from July 2009 when "Transshelf" conducted the world's first ferry mission of two nuclear-powered attack submarines (Russian Victor III SSN).

Update 2: A review of the NSR Administration website indicates Zvezdochka Ship Repair Center (on behalf of Dockwise Shipping BV) submitted a request on April 14 for "Transshelf" to transit the NSR; the NSR Administration approved the request two days later.

Update 3: Updated arrival date for "Transshelf" in the Rybachiy area (August 12).

Update 4: Updated latest position for "Transshelf" as of August 15.